Most NFL awards races are getting tight at the top with still five weeks left to play. A lot can happen in five weeks and there are a few unorthodox races taking shape, which we’ll discuss more on our awards show later this week. For now, let’s start with taking a look at some value options before finishing with some awards market notes.
Value Options
OPOY: Lamar Jackson (+6000 to +7500 ESPNBet, FanDuel)
I’ve said many times that Jackson was last year’s MVP by default. If you were to compare his numbers last season to what he’s already done this year, you’d see that he’s already thrown for more touchdown passes this season and, barring injury, he’s positioned to blow last year’s production out of the water in virtually every way. Unfortunately for Jackson’s MVP chances, Baltimore is only 8-5 and is getting more likely to be a wild card team every week.
If Jackson keeps up his current production pace, he’s going to finish the season as the league’s most productive quarterback, yet he probably won’t win MVP because team success has been a big factor in that award for a long time. That creates a scenario where Jackson becomes a very interesting longshot in the Offensive Player of the Year race. If Saquon Barkley sets the single-season rushing yards record, which his soft schedule gives him a real shot to do, he has a shot to win the MVP over Josh Allen, in part because Jackson is having a better year than Allen. In that scenario, awards voters will either double-dip on MVP and OPOY on Barkley, vote for Allen to win MVP anyway where Barkley wins OPOY, or pivot to a non-quarterback. Jackson has the best current case in that scenario, to the point I’d have him at +1200 right now.
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