This will (probably) be the last NFL awards column of the season, but I’m open to discussing hedging strategies and so on in Discord or via DM @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter.
This late in the year, there are smaller discrepancies between books among contenders in awards markets, so I’m going to focus on competitive races rather than value options. Odds listed are all from DraftKings. As always, make sure you line shop before making any wagers.
MVP
Statistically, Matthew Stafford (-300) is the MVP if the season ended today. Josh Allen (+550) is close to even with Drake Maye (+425) in raw production, but New England is still a game ahead of Buffalo in the loss column. The Bills’ win over the Patriots last week, in a game where Allen played well and Maye didn’t, created a situation where, if you have good positions on Stafford and Maye, you have to at least consider hedging with Allen now. Green Bay’s loss in Denver, paired with Micah Parsons‘ season-ending injury (hurts team success), makes it very unlikely that Jordan Love (+7500) leapfrogs the favorites.
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