This NFL season, we’ll provide you with weekly Survivor Pool content at Establish The Run. If you’re a survivor enthusiast, you already know the format is not for the faint of heart. You essentially have to win a 17+ leg parlay that plays out over several months without using the same team twice.
Injuries and other factors will change the best laid-out plans in any form of betting, but preparation for survivor begins with this free preseason preview. I’ll start by introducing you to the toughest slates of the season, as well as the micro slates you may see in tournaments like Circa.
I’ll then dive into many NFL teams where I’ll map out their most advantageous matchups this year. In-season, I’ll preview that week’s survivor slate on Thursday, and I’ll drop into the ETR Discord during the weekend if there are any significant changes. Now, let’s dive in.
Slates to Be Aware Of
Week 12
The Bengals, Bills, Falcons, Jaguars, Jets, and Saints are on their bye, making this a light slate with at least five survivor-caliber teams sitting at home.
Matchup-wise, KC at CAR is the likely “best” option on the slate. There are also a few divisional games that could have a significant favorite in HOU vs. TEN, MIA vs. NE, and DAL at WAS.
If your pool requires a Thanksgiving and/or Christmas slate pick, you may want to save KC and DAL for those spots.
Thanksgiving Slate (Week 13)
Lions vs. Bears
Cowboys vs. Giants
Packers vs. Dolphins
Chiefs vs. Raiders (Black Friday)
For survivor pools with a Thanksgiving Slate that does not include the Black Friday game, expect most users to save Dallas for this spot. For pools that include Black Friday, like Circa, expect Dallas and Kansas City to both be heavily used, although Dallas will likely be more popular.
It’s worth noting that Detroit split with Chicago last year, but the Bears beat the living daylights out of the Lions for 118 of the 120 minutes they played in 2023.
If your survivor pool does not specifically require a Thanksgiving slate pick, just treat this as part of Week 13, which has a few other playable options.
Week 14
This is another week with six teams on bye including heavyweights in the Ravens and Texans, as well as the Colts, Commanders, Broncos, and Patriots. Denver and New England are both expected to be popular targets in survivor pools this season, which makes their absence on this slate noteworthy.
PHI vs. CAR could potentially be the only significant favorite on this slate, making this one where you’ll either have to purposely save Philly and probably eat Week 14 chalk, or take a less obvious option.
SF vs. CHI could have potential if Caleb Williams is struggling, but it could end up as a matchup between two of the league’s best defenses where both offenses have well-above-average skill groups. TB vs. LV is another matchup to have on your radar.
Christmas Slate (Week 17)
Steelers vs. Chiefs
Texans vs. Ravens
Bears vs. Seahawks (Thursday Night Football)
For tournaments that have a Christmas slate, the overwhelming majority of participants will plan to save the Chiefs for this spot. It would take a borderline madman to hold one of the premier teams in the Texans and Ravens to play one at the end of the year in a relative coin-flip game. So, if you don’t want to eat the Chiefs chalk in those formats, you probably want to save the Bears and/or Seahawks. Saving both for this matchup could give you a game-theory edge against your opponents.
Like the Thanksgiving slate, if your pool does not require a Christmas-specific pick, just treat these matchups as part of Week 17. CIN vs. DEN is the most obvious option on the main slate, and LAC at NE has potential.
Week 18
Motivation is king in the final week of the regular season, so I’ll be leaning on Adam Levitan’s analysis on team motivation when the time comes.
For now, two things. The first is if your survivor pool runs through the regular-season finale, you want to save at least one game where you could play either team in that matchup. Ideally, you’ll be able to do that for a few different games. That way you’re not forced into taking a team that looked like a good option on paper in August, that is now resting their starters in the regular-season finale. If you handle things this way, you’ll have at least one coin-flip game available to you. TB vs. NO looks like the easiest one to save, and also the matchup your competitors are most likely to have both teams available as well. LV vs. LAC, LAR vs. SEA, and ATL vs. CAR could also be reasonably saved until the final week of the regular season. I could see the Buccaneers facing a Saints team that fired their coach weeks before the regular-season finale.
The second is you probably don’t want to save one of the top teams for the regular-season finale because so many teams will be resting starters for some or all of their Week 18 matchup.
Primary Contenders
Kansas City Chiefs
I usually save the Chiefs for a specific spot, as they are the most reliable team there is. This season, if your tournament requires Thanksgiving and/or Christmas slate picks, you should consider holding them for those.
Best Matchups: Week 5 vs. NO (MNF), Week 10 vs. DEN, Week 12 at CAR, Week 13 vs. LV (Thanksgiving Slate), Week 17 at PIT (Christmas Slate)
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers’ ultra-talented roster is why they’ve been the NFC’s most relevant team over the last half-decade. Make sure they have all of their key pieces when you play them in survivor.
Best Matchups: Week 2 at MIN, Week 4 vs. NE, Week 5 vs. ARI, Week 10 at TB
Baltimore Ravens
It’s hard to see the Ravens losing that Week 9 game against the Broncos, in Baltimore.
Best Matchups: Week 2 vs. LV, Week 6 vs. WAS, Week 9 vs. DEN, Week 15 at NYG
Detroit Lions
Detroit has a very good roster, but they do not have a lot of cupcakes on their schedule this year.
Best Matchups: Week 2 vs. TB, Week 7 at MIN, Week 8 vs. TEN
Contenders
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have a ton of appealing early-season matchups, with one of the best possible matchups in Week 17.
Best Matchups: Week 1 vs. NE, Week 3 vs. WAS (MNF), Week 4 at CAR, Week 6 at NYG, Week 9 vs. LV, Week 17 vs. DEN
Buffalo Bills
Usually I try to use Buffalo early because the Bills are reliable and Josh Allen takes a lot of contact, which will eventually lead to missed time. But this year, Buffalo revamped Allen’s wide receiver group, so I’ll be taking more of a wait-and-see approach early on with the Bills.
Best Matchups: Week 1 vs. ARI, Week 7 vs. TEN, Week 16 vs. NE
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have a lot of new to their roster and coaching staff this season, but we’ll know where they are at by their Week 3 matchup in New Orleans.
Best Matchups: Week 3 at NO, Week 7 at NYG, Week 11 vs. WAS (TNF), Week 14 vs. CAR
New York Jets
The Jets are loaded, but Aaron Rodgers is coming off a lost season and he’ll turn 41 in December. It makes sense to use the Jets against one of their softer early-season opponents.
Best Matchups: Week 2 at TEN, Week 3 vs. NE (TNF), Week 4 vs. DEN, Week 5 vs. MIN, Week 8 at NE
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay has a very well-rounded roster that can beat teams in multiple phases, but they have very few soft opponents this season.
Best Matchups: Week 3 at TEN, Week 4 vs. MIN, Week 16 vs. NO (MNF)
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas lost a ton of players this offseason that saw significant playing time, while adding very little to replace them. Their roster definitely got worse, and they are a CeeDee Lamb injury away from having a terrible skill group on offense. If you need to pick a Thanksgiving slate game, you may want to save the Cowboys for that. If you don’t, you may use Dallas in Week 2 against New Orleans, especially if the Cowboys lose to the Browns on Opening Day.
Best Matchups: Week 2 vs. NO, Week 4 at NYG (TNF), Week 13 vs. NYG (Thanksgiving), Week 15 at CAR, Week 16 vs. TB
Miami Dolphins
From a pure talent standpoint, Miami has a bottom-five offensive line. The Raiders have a good enough pass rush to give the Dolphins problems, and the Titans upset Miami last season. With Bill Belichick now in media, you may want to target a game against New England.
Best Matchups: Week 4 vs. TEN (MNF), Week 5 at NE, Week 11 vs. LV, Week 12 vs. NE
Talented, but Unproven Teams
Chicago Bears
The Bears have enough talent on both sides of the ball to be a factor this season. But they have a rookie quarterback and a new offensive coordinator, so using them early comes with volatility.
Best Matchups: Week 1 vs. TEN, Week 4 vs. CAR, Week 8 at WAS, Week 10 vs. NE
Atlanta Falcons
The first three games for the Falcons marks their toughest schedule run of the year. They also give us enough time to see how Kirk Cousins looks coming off an Achilles injury and for Atlanta’s many roster changes to begin to gel.
Best Matchups: Week 4 vs. NO, Week 5 vs. TB (TNF), Week 6 at CAR, Week 11 at DEN, Week 16 vs. NYG
Solid Teams
Cleveland Browns
If Deshaun Watson returns to form, Cleveland would be one of the most dangerous teams in the league. Otherwise, you ideally want to play the Browns in a game where they’ll have line-play advantages on both sides of the ball.
Best Matchups: Week 3 vs. NYG, Week 4 at LV, Week 5 at WAS, Week 11 at NO, Week 13 at DEN (MNF)
Indianapolis Colts
I really like the coach and Anthony Richardson is very talented, but the Colts do not have a great roster and they face their softest opponents on the road.
Best Matchups: Week 13 at NE, Week 15 at DEN, Week 17 at NYG
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have a coaching and quarterback advantage against most teams, but their roster is otherwise mediocre, at best.
Best Matchups: Week 7 vs. LV, Week 8 vs. MIN (TNF), Week 11 at NE, Week 13 at NO
Unreliable Teams You’ll Likely Have to Use
Los Angeles Chargers
You probably want to take a wait-and-see approach on the Chargers given their coaching and roster changes. However, the Raiders embarrassed the Chargers last year to the point that Jim Harbaugh’s first game as honcho in Los Angeles could be a statement game with an extra motivated roster. It’s also a Justin Herbert vs. Gardner Minshew game. If you want to get creative in Week 1, the Chargers are an interesting game-theory play. More on that next week.
Best Matchups: Week 1 vs. LV, Week 2 at CAR, Week 6 at DEN, Week 8 vs. NO, Week 10 vs. TEN, Week 17 at NE
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers’ offense makes them an unsafe survivor option, but you ideally want to play them when they have a pass-rush advantage against an inconsistent quarterback. You also want to avoid teams like this when they are popular options on a slate.
Best Matchups: Week 2 at DEN, Week 6 at LV, Week 8 vs. NYG (MNF), Week 10 at WAS
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars will have already played a game in Europe the week before facing the Patriots on foreign soil.
Best Matchups: Week 7 vs. NE (In Europe), Week 16 at LV
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle has a good roster, but they have a new coaching staff and Geno Smith is not safe. Unfortunately, Seattle opens the year against the two softest opponents in the league.
Best Matchups: Week 1 vs. DEN, Week 2 at NE, Week 5 vs. NYG, Week 16 vs. MIN
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona has a tough schedule early, where they could host Washington with an 0-3 record. I also expect the Cardinals to peak late.
Best Matchups: Week 4 vs. WAS, Week 15 vs. NE, Week 16 at CAR
