This is the second year we’ll be covering survivor pools at Establish The Run, and it’s the fourth season that I’ve personally covered the format for a major platform. Survivor is one of my favorite formats in betting because there is no formula; in fact, you’re going to have to make uncomfortable decisions to make it to the end in survivor.
Things change during a football season, from injuries to surprise teams, so we can’t effectively map out the whole season in August. We can, however, head into Opening Day with a better plan than the field.
In this preview, I’m going to identify the toughest slates of the season followed by some personal team takes at the end. In season, I’ll provide ownership projections and schedule lookaheads on Thursdays in an article, where I’ll jump in the survivor pool channel in Discord over the weekend to provide any updates.
Slates to Be Aware Of
Week 5
This is an important week because the two best matchups, Bills vs. Patriots and Chiefs at Jaguars, are both in prime time and not exactly slam dunks. They also involve two of the four most reliable teams in the league, where you should be building your long-term survivor strategy on when to play the Bills and Chiefs.
Week 6
The best matchup this week is Eagles at Giants on Thursday Night Football, where the next best look like Chargers at Dolphins and Patriots at Saints. This slate is the one I’m the least concerned with among these options, as we’ll know what all of these teams are by this point, but I want it to be on your radar early in case we can’t play New England in New Orleans when the time comes.
Week 10
This is the toughest slate of the season to date, as the Chiefs, Bengals, and Cowboys are all on their bye, and there are no slam-dunk options. In fact, you will likely have to take a volatile option like Panthers vs. Saints or Broncos vs. Raiders on Thursday Night Football on this slate.
Thanksgiving Slate (Week 13)
The holiday lineup:
Lions vs. Packers
Cowboys vs. Chiefs
Ravens vs. Bengals
Eagles vs. Bears (Black Friday)
On the full slate, 49ers at Browns, Dolphins vs. Saints, and Chargers vs. Raiders all have appeal, but if you’re in a tournament, like Circa, that forces a Thanksgiving slate pick, and there is no clean decision there.
The expected chalk will be Kansas City and Philly. For the Chiefs, that’s a road game on a short week against a Cowboys team that, if fully healthy, is at least somewhat capable of upsetting the Chiefs. For the Eagles, the Bears are not yet reliable, but they have enough upside where you may have zero interest playing someone against them in survivor pools come late November.
Week 14
The Buccaneers vs. Saints could end up being a 50+% ownership option on this slate, as every other game comes with some level of unease. Jaguars vs. Colts might end up being the most popular pivot this late in the year. Point being this could be bad chalk week, and those are the weeks that murder most survivor entries.
Christmas Slate (Week 17)
The holiday lineup:
Commanders vs. Cowboys
Vikings vs. Lions
Chiefs vs. Broncos
Expect the Commanders to be the team most Circa players plan to deploy in this spot, but this is another very difficult short slate.
For any tournament that forces picks on the holiday slates, my plan is to save the Lions until late in the year as a potential pivot. They lost both of their coordinators this offseason along with a ton of their coaching staff, so it would be very reasonable for them to start slow and take a step back, while improving late in the year.
On the full slate, Titans vs. Saints may end up as the overwhelming chalk this late in the year, as Bengals vs. Cardinals might be the next-best option, but Cincinnati is far from a slam dunk in this spot.
The Queens on the Chessboard
Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Eagles
These are the four best, most reliable teams in the league that you want to use in the highest-leverage spots possible in survivor pools. Buffalo has an easy schedule for a title contender, giving them more deployable spots than the other three options on this list.
I always save Kansas City until the second half of the year, and I’m going to try to do that again because of their changes on their offensive line. I prefer to use Baltimore early, because if Lamar Jackson is ever limited by a lower-body injury, he’s going to be an entirely different player, but the Ravens’ schedule makes them a better option to hold until the second half of this season.
The Eagles have a schedule with few, if any, cupcakes, so my plan is to hold them for Week 15 vs. the Raiders where I can deploy them as needed before that point.
49ers
The 49ers’ roster is not what it’s been, but they have the easiest schedule in the league, which makes them one of the teams you need to get right in survivor, because they are one of the more versatile pieces on the board.
Rams
If Matthew Stafford was definitely fine, you could argue they are the fifth-most reliable team in the league. If Stafford is healthy, that Week 9 matchup vs. New Orleans is as close to a sure thing as there is in survivor. Otherwise, if you’re going to save the Rams, you want healthy Stafford against a team with a suspect offensive line, because Los Angeles could derail that kind of opponent. If Stafford is a full go through the first three weeks, it might not be a bad idea to use the Rams early against the Colts in Week 4.
Broncos, Commanders
These two teams are darlings with very bright futures that I think clearly overachieved last season. They could very easily take a step back in 2025.
They will both be popular plays in Week 1 as well. Next week, when we dive into the opening slate, I imagine the Commanders will be a pass for me against the Giants’ high-end, fast front. Denver hosting Cam Ward in his NFL debut has more appeal.
But overall, I’ll be more cautious with these two options than most of the field entering the year.
The Targets
I usually have 20 or more survivor entries per year, and I will absolutely have one entry that I will play against the Saints virtually every week. I do not remember the last time a team went into a season with a mess at quarterback like New Orleans has this year. They probably won’t go winless, but they might be close.
I do not view the Browns the same way. Last year, Cleveland had a rough season, but the season before their defense carried them to victory against several high-end teams. My general advice is to wait on playing teams against Cleveland early in the year, until we see where their defense is at.
