Strength in Numbers: Actionable Week 6 Stats

We’re going to get a lot of stuff wrong, but sifting through usage metrics can help us work through what matters and what doesn’t. That’s the goal of this article: to break down the most actionable takeaways from each week in a concise, numbers-filled format and work through what’s important. Let’s get right to it.

Kareem Hunt eats into Jerome Ford’s workload in first game post-bye

The last time we saw the Browns in Week 4, Ford was the clear lead back, handling nine carries to Hunt’s five (Pierre Strong had five in garbage time as well) and running 29 routes on 43 Dorian Thompson-Robinson dropbacks for a pretty elite 67.4% route rate. That usage aligned with quotes from Kevin Stefanski right after Hunt signed that indicated Cleveland viewed Ford as their RB1 moving forward.

Ford still played more than Hunt in Week 6, but it was much closer, and Hunt actually started the game and got the first carry for the Browns. Ford played 38 snaps vs. 28 for Ford and out-carried the veteran 17-12, but Hunt notched one more target (3-2) despite running two fewer routes (14-12). Ford’s snap share fell from 56% and 62% in Weeks 3 and 4, respectively, to 50%, even though both Weeks 3 and 4 were blowouts, which would limit Ford’s playing time. PFF’s Nathan Jahnke noted that Ford still out-snapped Hunt 8-2 on third downs (29-23 gap on early downs), but the increased Hunt usage is concerning regardless. Perhaps even more concerning is the fact that Hunt got three short-yardage snaps to Ford’s one.

Ford is still the RB1 for the Browns, but his grasp on that role seems more tenuous than ever as Hunt’s workload gets progressively larger. The Deshaun Watson shoulder saga is also extremely strange and doesn’t inspire a lot of optimism that the Browns will be an above-average offense moving forward. It may be tough to sell Ford given two consecutive average games, Hunt’s increased involvement, and the uncertainty surrounding Watson, but it’s likely worth at least entertaining offers for the second-year pro. I’ll be watching over the next few weeks to see if Hunt’s role continues to grow or if they simply want to alleviate some of the load off Ford. His current role as the slight leader on early downs and clear third-down back is fantasy-viable, but that value could evaporate in an instant if Hunt continues to get more involved.

Devin Singletary inexplicably runs ahead of Dameon Pierce

In Week 5, Pierce tied a season high with 59% of snaps and handled 20 carries vs. zero for Singletary. While Singletary still played ahead of Pierce in clear passing situations, he literally did not touch the ball as a runner and had just one reception for four yards.

Things flipped in Week 6, as Singletary played 54% of snaps (the next-highest mark this year was 39%), while Pierce played a season-low 33% (next-closest mark: 45%). This was particularly interesting considering the Texans led basically the whole game — the type of game script that one would think lends itself to more Pierce usage. In the end, Singletary ran 18 routes to Pierce’s seven, got two targets vs. zero for Pierce, and had just one fewer carry (13-12). Jahnke also highlighted that Singletary out-snapped Pierce 24-16 on early downs and played nine of 13 snaps in the fourth quarter while Houston closed out the game. Pierce played just two fourth-quarter snaps. Mike Boone also played 16% of snaps, his highest snap share since Week 1.

On one hand, it’s a one-week trend that could look like an aberration if things revert back to normal in Week 8 (HOU has a bye in Week 7). On the other hand, Pierce is averaging just 2.9 yards per carry on the season compared to 3.9 for Singletary, and he doesn’t have the excuse that the offensive line is hurt anymore to explain his inefficiency. Singletary was far more effective in Week 6 with 58 yards on 12 carries vs. 13/34 for Pierce, and the Texans have very clearly shown this year that they don’t trust Pierce on passing downs. The bye week gives Houston another week to think through their RB usage, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see similar usage moving forward until Pierce’s efficiency improves.

Jonathan Taylor sees more usage in second game back with Colts