Strength in Numbers: Actionable Week 7 Stats

We’re going to get a lot of stuff wrong, but sifting through usage metrics can help us work through what matters and what doesn’t. That’s the goal of this article: to break down the most actionable takeaways from each week in a concise, numbers-filled format and work through what’s important. Let’s get right to it.

Headache limits Bijan Robinson to 11 snaps, as Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson split work

Robinson’s Week 7 outing was perhaps the most frustrating single-game performance of the season for fantasy managers, as there was zero indication pregame that his workload would be limited and no explanation given for his limited workload until halftime. Robinson noted postgame that he developed a bad headache on Saturday night, and Arthur Smith opted not to risk him. The star rookie finished with just one carry. There should be no concerns about his fantasy workload moving forward.

With Robinson basically out, Allgeier handled 21 carries on 51% of snaps, while Patterson got 10 carries on 40% of snaps. It was a relatively close carries gap in the first half (Allgeier led 7-6), but the Falcons started to really lean on the second-year pro down the stretch. Allgeier also had three targets compared to none for Patterson, but he was out-routed by the veteran 11-8.

This is likely what the Atlanta backfield split would look like if Bijan misses time. Patterson had played just 16 offensive snaps on the season (he was dinged up early, but they also made him inactive for a couple of weeks despite not appearing on the injury report) but immediately assumed a somewhat sizable role in Robinson’s absence. Allgeier would handle the load rushing-wise and would be a threat for 20+ carries each game if game script allows, but he still only ran a route on 27.6% of Desmond Ridder‘s dropbacks. It’s a strong role, but not an elite one.

Regardless, expect the Falcons’ backfield split to return to normal in Week 8. One thing to watch will be whether Patterson remains involved at all as a runner after he averaged 5.6 yards per tote against the Buccaneers.

Emari Demercado assumes workhorse role for Arizona

In Week 6, Demercado was widely presumed to be the RB2 for Arizona considering Keaontay Ingram had missed significant time with a neck injury and Damien Williams had only recently been signed to the active roster. He got just two carries and played the fewest snaps of all three Cardinals RBs in the first half. He did lead the backfield in snaps that game, but the majority of his playing time came in the second half with the Cardinals playing catch-up.

On Sunday, Demercado played 53 of 66 snaps (80.3%), ran 28 routes on 42 Josh Dobbs dropbacks, and handled 13 of 14 team RB carries. Williams had just one carry. Ingram didn’t play an offensive snap. It was frankly a bizarre shift in just one week and serves as a good reminder that we basically know nothing in this silly game we play. While Demercado only scored 11.5 PPR points, his 92.9% RB carries share and 66.7% route participation are both pretty elite.

It’s also difficult to entirely trust that Demercado will retain this role in Week 8 given that we just saw the Cardinals overhaul their entire backfield deployment from one game to the next. However, the undrafted rookie ran well with 58 yards on 13 carries, and he’s been the primary back on passing downs since early in the year. With James Conner sidelined for at least two more games, Demercado is certainly worth adding and potentially starting for fantasy managers needing a short-term injury replacement. It wouldn’t be that surprising to see his role cut drastically in Week 8, but I’m treating Demercado as a fantasy starter next week after he was used as a workhorse against Seattle.

Darrell Henderson steps into lead back role; Royce Freeman steps in as RB2