Quarterback injuries have changed the Week 6 slate, where ownership projections could significantly shift before the main slate kicks off on Sunday.
Below, I’ll discuss multiple games, listed from highest-projected ownership to least for teams with at least 1% projected ownership. As always, I will check in via the survivor pool channel in Discord to discuss any updates I have on any matchup.
If you’re in a pool with holiday slates, like Circa, you can find those schedules at the bottom of this column.
Packers vs. Bengals
Spread: Packers -14
Total: 44.5
Ownership: 38%
The Packers are the biggest favorite of the season to date coming off a bye paired with the capacity to win this game in all phases. The Bengals are giving up the third-most points per game (31.2) and the Packers’ pass rush will have an advantage in this contest.
Cincinnati traded for quarterback Joe Flacco this week, and he’s been announced as the starter for this contest. Normally a new quarterback joining a new team and starting in the same week would be an obvious negative, but in this situation, Flacco is a far more experienced quarterback than Jake Browning and Zac Taylor hasn’t won many games as a play-caller, so Flacco potentially getting more out of this offense is the only football-centric concern I have in playing Green Bay. That said, from a pure football angle, I have no issue playing the Packers in this spot.
The Packers are also available in most live survivor pool entries, so expect Green Bay to be extremely popular, which makes playing them a game-theory and future-value decision. The Packers’ Week 9 game against the Panthers is their other very strong home matchup, where that slate, like this one, has a number of playable options, most notably the Rams hosting the Saints. Week 11 is murkier with some playable road teams, where the Steelers vs. Bengals looks like the best home option on that slate.
Overall, this is the week to decide when you intend to play Green Bay. From a pure football standpoint, it would be a surprise if they lost this contest, but their ownership will likely be high enough in most pools that making a game-theory pivot is reasonable.
Best Remaining Matchups: Week 7 at ARI, Week 9 vs. CAR, Week 11 at NYG
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