The Rundown: Divisional Round

Welcome to The Rundown: Divisional Round. Each week, we will be compiling some of our favorite and most actionable takes from the ETR team and organizing them on this page game by game. Please note that all betting information is sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’re betting sides and totals, always be sure to line shop first and utilize ETR’s various sportsbook bonus offers.

Texans at Ravens, 4:30 p.m. EST (Saturday) (return to top)

• OL Playoff Rankings: Brandon Thorn listed both team’s offensive lines in the third tier of his OL playoff rankings. Baltimore (8th) has notably been using a rotation at both offensive tackle spots over the last few weeks with Patrick Mekari and Daniel Faalele subbing in for starters Ronnie Stanley and Morgan Moses, both of which are playing through lingering injuries. Houston (5th) has two stars in LT Laremy Tunsil and RG Shaq Mason, giving them stud pass protectors on each side of the line, and RT George Fant has been a revelation this season after being brought in on a one-year, $4M deal late in the offseason. 
• Strength in Numbers: Jack Miller noted that Robert Woods (34% route share) was severely limited in last week’s game, finishing fourth among Houston WRs in routes — narrowly edging out Xavier Hutchinson (32%).
• DFS Top Plays: The ETR team listed Lamar Jackson (DK 2nd; FD 1st), Devin Singletary (DK 3rd; FD 3rd), and Ravens DST (DK 2nd; FD 1st) as top-3 plays at their position this week.
• Establish the Million: Odell Beckham Jr. ($4,600 DK) was one of Dink’s flag plants for this weekend’s slate.

Silva’s Matchups Takes:

• “C.J. Stroud leads all quarterbacks in combined passing and rushing EPA when playing from behind (Next Gen Stats)…Stroud’s 2023 yards per pass attempt dipped from 8.9 at home to 7.3 in away games, and he is now facing the league’s stingiest defense on the road.”
• “Devin Singletary is operating as a near-every-down back, while Baltimore coughed up a crisp 4.47 yards per carry to enemy backs this season.”
• “Nico Collins’ Week 20 matchup is enhanced by the absence of Ravens top CB Marlon Humphrey (calf), who will be replaced by fifth-team journeyman Ronald Darby.”
• “John Metchie is a legit DFS sleeper after securing all three of his targets for 44 yards on a 76% snap rate in last week’s win.”
• “Xavier Hutchinson is a mildly intriguing dart-throw punt.”
• “The Texans coughed up the NFL’s third-most yards per pass attempt (7.7) and fourth-highest completion rate (67.6%) this regular season, also surrendering a league-high seven rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks.”
• “Should game flow go as expected — again, the Ravens are big favorites to play from ahead — Gus Edwards should largely control Baltimore’s backfield.”
• “Dalvin Cook’s greatest strength at this stage of his career appears to be pass protection. I will be surprised if he plays double-digit snaps.”
• “I’m standing by Zay Flowers as Baltimore’s top playoff DFS start among Ravens WRs. Flowers logs nearly 30% of his snaps inside — Derek Stingley is a perimeter corner only”
• “Essentially a decoy throughout 2023 anyway, Rashod Bateman hit paydirt once all season and cleared 40 yards once.”
• “I will love Isaiah Likely and like slot man Nelson Agholor as a Week 20 sleeper if Mark Andrews sits.”

Packers at 49ers, 8:15 p.m. EST (Saturday) (return to top)