The Rundown: Week 7

Welcome to The Rundown: Week 7. Each week, we will be compiling some of our favorite and most actionable takes from the ETR team and organizing them on this page game by game. We’ll also provide some additional stats and notes to help make those crucial decisions when building and setting your lineups on Sunday mornings. Please note that all betting information is sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’re betting sides and totals, always be sure to line shop first and utilize ETR’s various sportsbook bonus offers.

Raiders @ Bears, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)

• Snaps and Pace: Pat Thorman called this game a slow-paced slog. The Raiders rank 23rd in EPA per play, 24th in points per snap, and the offense has yet to score 20 points. A Bears offense ranking 24th in EPA per play already fell back to Earth following their 40-point Week 5 anomaly in Washington. Moving at the league’s slowest situation-neutral pace and averaging the fourth-fewest play-clock seconds when they get around to snapping it, Chicago runs at the third-highest rate while games are close — and those contests produce the seventh-fewest combined plays.
• Buy Leone: Davante Adams ($8,200 – DK, 4.9 PPG underperformance — highest among all WRs) appears in this week’s model. Adam noted in his context write-up that this is an all-time squeaky wheel narrative, and to expect a bump in first-read targets for Adams.

Silva’s Matchups Takes:

• “Missing Jimmy Garoppolo (back)…my bet is on Aidan O’Connell getting the nod. The good news is O’Connell would be facing the Bears, who’ve allowed the NFL’s fifth-most fantasy quarterback points and rank bottom two in sacks (9). In a week with six teams on bye, O’Connell is playable in two-QB/Superflex formats.”
• “Josh Jacobs should remain the centerpiece of Las Vegas’ offense; opposing RBs have throttled Chicago for an average of 135 total yards and eight all-purpose TDs in six games.”
• “This is a green-light #SqueakyWheel spot for Davante Adams, who has campaigned publicly and aggressively for more targets after drawing just nine combined over Vegas’ last two games.”
• “I still like Jakobi Meyers as a plus-matchup WR3 start.”
• “As Chicago has permitted the NFL’s second-most receptions to tight ends (40), you could do a lot worse than Michael Mayer as a Week 7 streamer.”
• “The Bears are turning to UDFA rookie Tyson Bagent…He rarely ran at Shepherd University and is a popgun arm surrounded by a low-level supporting cast.”
• “D’Onta Foreman out-touched Darrynton Evans 16 to 10 and out-snapped Evans 40 to 24 in Week 6’s loss to the Vikings. Vegas has allowed the NFL’s seventh-most rushing yards (600) and fifth-most rushing TDs to enemy backs. I’m treating Foreman as a largely touchdown-reliant RB2/flex and Evans as a desperation flex.”
• “I’m still teeing up D.J. Moore as a boom-bust WR2/3 and Cole Kmet as a fringe TE1/2 option.”

Browns at Colts, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)

• Snaps and Pace: Pat Thorman called this game up in pace. While this matchup should yield outsized play volume, we are planning for an uneven distribution. It is not a news flash, but the Browns’ defense remains a problem. The Browns are averaging 18.6 more plays than their opponents, and no one is remotely within shouting distance (Eagles +9.5). They are operating with surprising urgency on offense, ranking seventh in situation-neutral pace and 11th in average play-clock seconds remaining. Now Cleveland visits the fast track in Indianapolis, and if early-season trends hold, a lightning-quick pace could lead to incredible snap volume for the Browns. Colts contests average more combined plays than any other team, and Indianapolis’ opponents average the sixth-most snaps per game.
• OL vs DL: Brandon Thorn listed the Browns’ DL (3rd) > the Colts’ OL (17th) as the week’s third-biggest mismatch. The Browns’ DL ranks seventh in pass-rush win rate, sixth in pressure percentage, and first in QB knockdown percentage. The Colts’ OL ranks 21st in pass-block win rate, 19th in QB hurry percentage given up, and 16th in sacks per pass attempt given up. RT Braden Smith missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday after sitting out last week.
• Cheap WRs: Gary Hartman listed Josh Downs ($4,500 DK, $5,700 FD) as a great play on both sites. Downs projects for 5.8 targets.

Silva’s Matchups Takes:

• “Regardless of the Browns’ quarterback situation, I’m most encouraged by Jerome Ford’s Week 7 breakout chances against a Colts defense that just lost 334-pound NT Grover Stewart to a six-game PEDs suspension and was already permitting the NFL’s seventh-most fantasy points to running backs. I’m all over Ford as a DFS tournament play.”
• “Browns No. 2 WR Donovan Peoples-Jones has finished below 50 receiving yards in nine straight games...Elijah Moore is averaging 5.8 touches for 36 scoreless yards per game.”
• “This is a potential breakthrough spot for David Njoku; the Colts have surrendered the NFL’s fourth-most catches (38) and sixth-most yards (363) to tight ends.”
• “Gardner Minshew looks in store for a long day against Cleveland’s arguably league-best defense.”
• “I’m expecting a 50-50 timeshare between Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss until one separates himself from the other. Cleveland has limited enemy running backs to 3.8 yards per carry and two all-purpose TDs through five games. Moss and Taylor are both low-floor flex options this week.”
• “Michael Pittman has drawn double-digit targets in four of six games. Yet no NFL defense has permitted fewer catches (35), yards (471), or TDs (1) to opposing WRs than Cleveland’s.”
• “Minshew has developed an affinity for Josh Downs while largely ignoring Alec Pierce.”

Bills @ Patriots, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)