Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 1

Welcome to the Week 1 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, while identifying main-slate matchups that will — and will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

While a Week 1 slate always serves up plenty of unknowns, we are reasonably sure of how several offenses will operate. The Chiefs will play fast, the Jets will be slow, and it won’t matter much that the 49ers crawl. Of course, each of those buzzworthy teams is in primetime — thanks, NFL — but plenty of meat remains on the 12-game main slate.

Two of those matchups offer, despite low projected point totals, sneaky pace-based volume ceilings. We’ll touch on them below at the expense of obvious shootout spots in Buffalo (48-point total) and Miami (49.5).

At the same time, we finally get answers — or at least hints — to many questions arising from an offseason of player and coach movement. We hit on the most fantasy-relevant items to watch for in Pace Notes.

After seven football-free months filled with interminable contract holdouts, surprise punt returners, and Bill Belichick becoming a best ball bro, Week 1 has finally arrived. Let’s dive in.

As always, “situation neutral” is meant to provide context, refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half), and is derived via the RotoViz Pace Tool. Average play-clock seconds remaining at the snap is also based on neutral game script and is provided by our machine, Mike Leone.

Up In Pace | Slow-Paced Slogs | Pace Notes

Up In Pace

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Last season’s initial meeting between the division rivals offered confirmation that Indianapolis would be a legitimate pace and play-volume catalyst — often leaving fantasy scoreboards lit up like Jim Irsay at a Christmas party. Coming off their 138-combined-play, 51-total-point opener, the Colts delivered a 135-play, 51-point fiesta in Houston. They would go on to lead the league in no-huddle rate, finish second in situation-neutral pace, and their games would rank third in total play volume — despite a relatively slower pace after Anthony Richardson was lost for the year. Now he’s back, was handed a first-round quality wideout in the draft, and Indianapolis still wields an offense run by speed-freak play-caller Shane Steichen.

The Texans did not play nearly as fast as the Colts last year, but they were by no means slow — ranking 10th in both situation-neutral pace and play-clock seconds remaining at the snap. Their games averaged the 13th-most combined plays. Houston has room to speed up after finishing mid-pack in situation-neutral pass rate while handing off too often on first downs. They almost certainly will chuck it around more as C.J. Stroud enters Year 2 with a newly imported Stefon Diggs at his side. That fits our Sunday plans, as both teams’ secondaries are suspect — with the Texans checking in at 18th via PFF, and the Colts fifth worst. Last year’s first meeting saw these offenses rank first and second in pace on the week, and there’s a strong chance they raise the curtain on the 2024 season with an encore.

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants