The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.
The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.
The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.
With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 10. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.
Week 10 Bye: Bears, Bengals, Texans, Giants
DL Rankings – Week 10
- Bucs
- Browns
- Steelers
- 49ers
- Saints
- Rams
- Washington — Montez Sweat is out for about a month with a broken jaw.
- Eagles
- Bears
- Cardinals
- Packers
- Bills
- Panthers
- Titans
- Chargers
- Cowboys — Randy Gregory is on short-term IR (three-week minimum) with a calf strain.
- Raiders
- Bengals
- Ravens
- Patriots
- Chiefs
- Colts
- Vikings
- Giants
- Broncos
- Seahawks
- Jets
- Lions
- Falcons
- Dolphins
- Jaguars
- Texans
OL Rankings – Week 10
- Bucs
- Saints – Terron Armstead ruled out this week
- Browns
- Packers
- Rams
- Cowboys
- Eagles
- 49ers
- Chiefs
- Patriots
- Colts
- Bills
- Titans
- Chargers
- Washington
- Vikings
- Raiders
- Seahawks
- Bengals
- Cardinals
- Broncos – LT Garett Bolles & RT Bobbie Massie missed practice on Wednesday & Thursday.
- Lions
- Ravens
- Jaguars
- Bears
- Steelers
- Falcons
- Giants
- Jets
- Panthers
- Texans
- Dolphins
Biggest Week 10 DL > OL Mismatches
| DL | Rank | OL | Rank | DK $ | FD $ |
| Bills | 12 | Jets | 29 | 4000 | 5000 |
| Eagles | 8 | Broncos | 21 | 2700 | 3600 |
| Steelers | 3 | Lions | 22 | 4100 | 4900 |
| Cardinals | 10 | Panthers | 30 | 3700 | 4800 |
| Packers | 11 | Seahawks | 18 | 2900 | 3900 |
Biggest Week 10 OL > DL Mismatches
- Cowboys OL (6th) > Falcons DL (29th)
- Colts OL (11th) > Jaguars DL (31st)
DL > OL
1. Bills DL > Jets OL
Key matchups: Edge Gregory Rousseau vs. RT Morgan Moses, DT Ed Oliver vs. C Connor McGovern & RG Greg Van Roten
Notes: The Bills’ DL ranks seventh in pass rush win rate, 11th in adjusted sack rate, and first in pressure percentage. The Jets’ OL ranks 11th in pass block win rate, 23rd in adjusted sack rate, and 24th in pressure percentage given up.
The Bills have a committee approach to their defensive line that allows fresh bodies to cycle into the lineup and maximize pressure on opposing blockers throughout games. The Jets’ O-line is one of the five units in the NFL with one standout in rookie left guard Alijah Vera-Tucker with below-average or worse starters in the other four spots. Add in backup QB Mike White having to face the Bills’ disciplined coverage unit in the backend and Buffalo’s pass-rush should rain down a barrage of pressure on this offensive line in this matchup.
2. Eagles DL > Broncos OL
Key matchups: DTs Javon Hargrave & Fletcher Cox vs. OGs Quinn Meinerz & Dalton Risner, DE Josh Sweat vs. Cameron Fleming
Notes: The Eagles’ DL ranks second in pass rush win rate, ninth in adjusted sack rate, and 18th in QB hurry percentage. The Broncos’ OL ranks 13th in pass block win rate, 28th in adjusted sack rate, and 32nd in pressure percentage given up. Both starting tackles (Garett Bolles & Bobbie Massie) missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday after being out the prior week.
The Broncos’ O-line may be without both of their starting tackles for the second consecutive week after Garett Bolles and Bobbie Massie missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday, while right guard Graham Glasgow is out for the year with an injury. Rookie right guard Quinn Meinerz is set to take Glasgow’s place and should patch up that hole nicely, but the tackle spots are a concern. Eagles DE Josh Sweat is one of the more explosive, skilled edge-rushers in the league and has an enormous mismatch against backup right tackle Cameron Fleming. On the interior, Dalton Risner and Meinerz are a strong duo, but the rookie Meinerz has to face off against Fletcher Cox while Risner has to deal with Javon Hargrave. Risner has struggled with rushers in the mold of Hargrave that win with superior natural leverage, quickness, and power, so that is the second biggest mismatch to keep an eye on.
3. Steelers DL > Lions OL
Key matchups: Edge T.J. Watt vs. RT Matt Nelson
Notes: The Steelers’ DL ranks sixth in pass rush win rate, 20th in adjusted sack rate, and third in pressure percentage. The Lions’ OL ranks 26th in pass block win rate, 21st in adjusted sack rate, and 27th in pressure percentage given up. LT Taylor Decker returned to practice in full this week after not playing yet this season.
The Lions’ line is at a bit of a crossroads with Taylor Decker set to return to the lineup, and that will force rookie Penei Sewell back over to the right side, where he struggled mightily in the preseason. On paper, Decker’s return should strengthen two spots for the Lions’ line in the long run, but it comes at the risk of disrupting Sewell’s progress and confidence. Against a dynamic front like the Steelers, Sewell is set to face T.J. Watt while Decker has to deal with Alex Highsmith and his top-notch get-off that will test his burst early and often in this matchup. On the interior, Cam Heyward will give center Evan Brown fits in what will be his fifth career start. There are a lot of uncertainties with this reshaped Lions line and very little margin for error against several impact pass-rushers this week.
4. Cardinals DL > Panthers OL
Key matchups: Edges Chandler Jones & Markus Golden vs. OTs Cameron Erving & Taylor Moton
Notes: The Cardinals’ DL ranks 16th in pass rush win rate, fifth in adjusted sack rate, and 13th in pressure percentage. The Panthers’ OL ranks 28th in pass rush win rate, 26th in adjusted sack rate, and 30th in pressure percentage given up.
Carolina’s O-line is coming off a dreadful performance against the Patriots’ multiple defenses and now get to face Arizona’s chaotic defensive style predicated on a high blitz rate (eighth) and two edge-rushers playing at an incredibly high level in Chandler Jones and Markus Golden. Making matters worse is that the Panthers have a bottom-three line with all three interior spots manned by backups, a backup-caliber starter at left tackle in Cam Erving, and their best player at right tackle in Taylor Moton struggling with his technique as a pass-protector. There are way too many holes on this Panthers unit to expect anything less than another lopsided matchup this week against the Cardinals’ pass-rush.
5. Packers DL > Seahawks OL
Key matchups: Edge Rashan Gary vs. RT Brandon Shell, DT Kenny Clark vs. C Kyle Fuller
Notes: The Packers’ DL ranks 26th in pass rush win rate, 13th in adjusted sack rate, and 25th in QB hurry percentage. The Seahawks’ OL ranks 15th in pass block win rate, 31st in adjusted sack rate, and 31st in pressure percentage given up.
Green Bay’s defensive line has gotten career-best years out of Rashan Gary and Dean Lowry, providing them with two power-rushers that can consistently compress the pocket on quarterbacks while Kenny Clark remains a mismatch for the majority of centers in the NFL. Seattle center Kyle Fuller is one of the worst starting pivots in the NFL in pass-protection, playing into Clark’s upside to explode in this game. The Packers also have Kingsley Keke producing at a high level on the interior as part of their rotation with Whitney Mercilus playing solid enough to keep Seattle’s best lineman in left tackle Duane Brown occupied. With so many legit threats along their defensive front that can put blockers on their heels, expect QB Russell Wilson to have to navigate a restricted, tight pocket in his first game back from hand surgery that was supposed to keep him out six to eight weeks. Wilson is returning in four weeks.
OL > DL
1. Cowboys OL > Falcons DL
Atlanta’s pass-rush has been lifeless this season apart from some flashes from Dante Fowler and Grady Jarrett. The Cowboys are dealing with star left tackle Tyron Smith likely to be out for the second week in a row, but have a solid interior trio and likely will get better play in Smith’s absence this week either with Terrence Steele or La’El Collins. The Falcons will need to prove that they can capitalize on an area of opportunity with Smith out before believing they can do it. I have my doubts considering how quickly QB Dak Prescott reads defenses and gets rid of the ball.
2. Colts OL > Jaguars DL
The Colts’ offensive line has gotten back to full strength over the last couple of weeks and is now capable of dominating bottom-tiered competition up front, which is what the Jaguars present. Jacksonville is coming off of their best game of the year as a defensive line against the Bills, but will be dealing with an entirely different style of unit in the run-heavy, power-oriented group that the Colts have. Expect there to be less opportunity for them to rush against the dropback passing game this week as well.
