Waiver Wire Analysis: Week 11

On the surface, Week 11 looks like another uninspiring week on the waiver wire. While I won’t lie to you — it isn’t amazing, by any means –there are still opportunities to add several useful players to your squads. We are confronted with questions such as “Can Ty Chandler take the reins from Alexander Mattison for the rest of the season?” and “How much upside does Rashid Shaheed have without Michael Thomas?”. Reading this week’s waiver analysis equips you with the proper context to answer these key questions and more. Let’s dive in.

As a reminder, here are explanations for each section of the article. Read the descriptions below to determine whether “Home-League Waiver Targets” or “Deeper-League Targets” is more relevant for your particular league:

• Home-League Waiver Targets: This section focuses on the typical “home league” with friends, family members, and co-workers. These leagues typically include starting lineups of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2-3 WRs, 1 TE, 1-2 FLEX, 1 K, 1 D/ST, and 5-7 BENCH spots. I will use ESPN & Yahoo rostership percentages to gauge which players are available in a typical league. To qualify as a waiver target, the player must be rostered in <30% of leagues on either Yahoo or ESPN.
• Deeper-League Targets: This section will be focused on deeper leagues, which typically have additional starting lineup slots and deeper benches compared to the typical home league. Drafters who play in tournament contests on FFPC, NFFC, or similar should find this section helpful. To qualify as a deeper-league target, the player must be rostered in <50% of FFPC Main Event leagues.

Additionally, FAAB recommended bid percentages are given. These should generally be interpreted as a % of your original FAAB budget, not your current FAAB budget, though obviously keep in mind team- and league-specific considerations when making your bids.

For each list, I will rank the players in order based on how I would prioritize adding them to your teams. I will also include a “Drop List” of commonly rostered players that I would be comfortable parting ways with to add these targets to your team.

Top 10 Home-League Waiver Targets

Before getting into this week’s top targets, let me first call out a handful of players that are hovering in the 30-50% ownership range on ESPN/Yahoo. These players miss my thresholds to be included in this article but should be prioritized if available. They are roughly in order of how I would rank them:

• Devin Singletary
• Trey McBride
• Zach Charbonnet
• Josh Downs
• Joshua Dobbs
• Tyjae Spears
• Quentin Johnston

Keaton Mitchell

Rostership: 47% Yahoo, 23% ESPN

FAAB Recommendation: 25-40%

First off, Mitchell is likely to be owned in the vast majority of competitive leagues. In leagues where he’s still available, however, he’s worth a hefty FAAB bid and the top waiver priority. The Ravens still utilized a three-man RB committee in Week 10, but Mitchell’s explosiveness, including a 39-yard TD run on his first touch of the game, very likely signals an impending usage upswing. The Ravens’ usage of Mitchell was Achanian, scheming him up in space on draws, end-arounds, screens, and wheel routes. On a small sample, he ranks second to only De’Von Achane in PFF rushing grade, with a model-breaking 14.3 YPC.

While the presence of Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson will cap Mitchell’s goal-line touch equity, he still has the potential to emerge as a boom-bust RB2 in the Ravens’ offense. Once Justice Hill is phased out of the offense, which I expect to happen soon, we can start Mitchell with confidence and hope to benefit from his trademark explosive-play ability.

Demario Douglas

Rostership: 36% Yahoo, 27% ESPN

FAAB Recommendation: 15-25%

Every week I write up Patriots rookie Demario Douglas, and fantasy managers on Yahoo and ESPN ignore me. Since earning an increased role in Week 7, Douglas has run 82% of routes and seen 23% of the Patriots’ targets, averaging 11 fantasy points per game over that span. Douglas’ failure to find the end zone in a down-bad New England offense will cap his fantasy upside, but he has every-week WR3 viability given his underlying utilization. Add Douglas and you have an immediate FLEX/WR3 starter. It’s that simple.

Ty Chandler