Last Updated: February 7th at 9:21pm ET
Spring football is back thanks to the rebirth of the XFL. Here at Establish The Run, we want to make sure you are up to speed as we get ready for kickoff on Saturday, February 8th. We are expecting both DraftKings and Fanduel to host relatively large DFS contests right out of the gate. Below is a quick introduction to the XFL’s rules and eight teams:
UNIQUE RULES TO KNOW
1. Double Forward Pass behind line of scrimmage: A team can complete two passes on one play as long as the first pass is to a player behind the line of scrimmage. The second player can then make a pass while still behind the line of scrimmage to a player downfield. It’s hard to gauge how often this play will be used, but it has the potential to really pad players’ stat lines if you start getting wide receivers and running backs making chunk plays in the passing game.
2. No extra points: The XFL has done away with the boring extra-point kick, and teams have the option to run a play from the 2-yard line for one point, run a play from the 5-yard line for two points, or run a play from the 10-yard line for three points. If the DFS providers score these as one, two, and three points respectively in fantasy, projecting for these boosts will be necessary. Based on historical scoring rates from those distances, the optimal decision will be to go for the two-pointer from the 5-yard line.
3. Rules skewed toward offense: The XFL is emphasizing scoring and offense. Receivers only need to get one foot inbounds to make a completed catch. The play clock is only 25 seconds. Every member of the offense will have coach communication mics in their helmets.
4. Teams project to run a similar number of plays: Outside of the last two minutes of each half, the game clock will run after incompletions and out of bounds plays. In other words, pass-heavy teams don’t project to run too many more plays than run-heavy teams.
Now that the rules are out of the way, let’s take a snapshot of the teams and some potential fantasy studs. The XFL is expecting to be an extremely pass-heavy league with general expectations of a 65/35 pass-run ratio. This somewhat limits the value of running backs, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see each team go with more of a committee approach instead of riding one bell cow.
TAMPA BAY VIPERS
Coach: Marc Trestman
Projected Week 1 QB: Aaron Murray
At sports books, Trestman’s squad is a favorite to be one of the best teams in the league. Caesars opened Tampa Bay’s win total at 7.5 (in a 10-game season, highest in the league). A fantasy standout worth watching here is tight end Nick Truesdell. He was simply the best tight end in the AAF last season, and Trestman made it a point to grab Truesdell with the fifth overall pick in the XFL draft. In eight AAF games, Truesdell posted a 24-269-3 line. If you are in season-long leagues, reaching for Truesdell is a must as having a player of his caliber at TE gives you a huge advantage over your league mates. It’s also worth noting that one AAF team (Houston) is not even carrying a tight end on its roster.
NEW YORK GUARDIANS
Coach: Kevin Gilbride
Projected Week 1 QB: Matt McGloin
Under two-time Super Bowl champion coach Gilbride, the Guardians’ top fantasy asset here will likely be wideout Mekale “Big Play” McKay. Another standout talent from the AAF, McKay is flirting with overall WR1 status heading into the season thanks to his red-zone prowess and likelihood of being force fed targets in a receiver corps that was bitten by the injury bug early in training camp. The team lost its first-round draft pick and former Green Bay Packers pick DeAngelo Yancey to IR. McKay was already sitting around a top-five option with Yancey in the lineup, but now thrust into a larger role, he could be one of the most-targeted players in the league.
SEATTLE DRAGONS
Coach: Jim Zorn
Projected Week 1 QB: Brandon Silvers
The Dragons are one of the most intriguing teams in the league as they seem built to take advantage of some of the league’s offensive-friendly rules. A pair of receivers to watch are Keenan Reynolds and John Santiago. Reynolds played QB at Navy, throwing for 4,001 yards with 31 TDs and only eight INTs. He also ran 977 times for 4,559 yards with 88 rushing TDs. That’s the most college rushing TDs of any player in the XFL, and he’s a receiver now. Santiago doesn’t offer the same threat in the passing game, but he too was a problem for defenses on the ground rushing for 3,717 yards and 29 TDs as a receiver in college. These two could be used to create a ton of misdirection, and Reynolds is a prime candidate to destroy defenses as a target of the double-forward pass.
ST. LOUIS BATTLEHAWKS
Coach: Jonathan Hayes
Projected Week 1 QB: Jordan Ta’amu
Most notably, this is where former Seahawks second-round draft pick Christine Michael is calling home these days. C-Mike is one of the most experienced backs in the league thanks to his NFL days and should be a focal point of an offense that is lacking what most would consider a true WR1. If C-Mike has any juice left in his legs, he has a legit chance at leading the league in rushing on what could be a more conservative passing offense.
LOS ANGELES WILDCATS
Coach: Winston Moss
Projected Week 1 QB: Josh Johnson (Q, thigh) or Chad Kanoff.
It’s a passing league as we know, and the Wildcats have quite possibly the best fantasy option under center with Josh Johnson. He checks all the boxes for fantasy success with his dual-threat rushing ability. He brings NFL experience having spent time with 14 different teams in the big leagues and brings solid college stats having thrown for nearly 10,000 yards and 113 TDs in his time at San Diego. Unfortunately, Johnson didn’t participate in preseason scrimmages and is looking doubtful for Week 1 as he deals with a nagging leg injury. The passing game will take a big hit here if Johnson can’t go with only Nelson Spruce a potential DFS play. Running back Elijah Hood could be featured heavily and is a top play for Week 1, especially if the Wildcats can’t get their starting QB under center.
HOUSTON ROUGHNECKS
Coach: June Jones
Projected Week 1 QB: Phillip Walker
The Roughnecks have another NFL talent that stands out in ex-Steeler Sammie Coates. Coates is a big-play threat having averaged 18.2 yards per reception in the NFL and will be playing in Jones’ WR-friendly run-and-shoot offense. This team is going to spread it out a ton as evidenced by its lack of a single tight end on the roster. The Roughnecks also have a sleeper pick for a top QB option with former Temple signal-caller PJ Walker. Walker beat out former Michigan State standout QB Connor Cook in a heated camp battle. Cook was the team’s first-round pick and selected second overall, meaning Walker must have shown some real promise in camp to get the nod for Week 1. This team isn’t even rostering a tight end, reiterating its commitment to feeding wide receivers in four- and five-wideout sets.
DALLAS RENEGADES
Coach: Bob Stoops
Projected Week 1 QB: Landry Jones (Q, knee) orPhillip Nelson
One of the bigger names in the league coming into the XFL season was QB Landry Jones. An early camp knee injury sidelined Jones for the entire preseason, but he is fighting his way to make a Week 1 start. This whole offense gets a boost with the presence of Jones under center and his best receiving option is easily former Oklahoma wideout, Jeff Badet. Badet blazed a 4.27 40 at his pro day in 2018 and could flirt with top-5 WR status all season. This team is rounded out by former Carolina Panthers RB Cameron Artis-Payne who also figures to flirt with top-5 status at his position week in and week out. Dallas is expected to be one of the most high-powered offenses in the league behind legendary Oklahoma HC Bob Stoops and Air Raid Offense Godfather, Hal Mumme.
DC DEFENDERS
Coach: Pep Hamilton
Projected Week 1 QB: Cardale Jones
In a somewhat shocking preseason move, we saw the Wildcats trade Rashad Ross to the Defenders. DC got a good one in this deal as Ross was quite possibly the most impressive WR in the AAF and brings a special teams skillset to the team as well. He’s a big-play threat who can create a ton of yards after the catch and will fit in perfectly as a favorite target of former Ohio State National Champion Cardale Jones. Ross should be a lock for a top-five WR spot and projects as a common name atop fantasy leaderboards each week.
JOHN FERGUSON’s SEASON-LONG RANKINGS
Top-5 QBs
1. Landry Jones – DAL (Q for Week 1, knee)
2. Josh Johnson – LA (Q for Week 1, thigh)
3. Cardale Jones — DC
4. Phillip Walker – HOU
5. Aaron Murray – TB
Top-5 RBs
1. Cameron Artis-Payne – DAL
2. Elijah Hood – LA
3. Jhurrel Pressley – DC
4. Christine Michael – STL
5. De’Veon Smith – TB
Top-5 WRs
1. Mekale McKay – NY
2. Sammie Coates – HOU
3. Jeff Badet – DAL
4. Rashad Ross – DC
5. Nelson Spruce – LA
Top-5 TEs
1. Nick Truesdell – TB
2. Donald Parham – DAL
3. Wes Saxton – STL
4. Brandon Barnes – LA
5. Khari Lee – DC
