What does an elite fantasy wide receiver look like?
It’s a difficult question because players win in different ways. TY Hilton doesn’t look like Mike Evans, but we know they’ve both been top-10 fantasy assets at the position.
With that in mind, I find value in looking at minimum thresholds. I understand the problems with this method, but it helps to identify who would be an outlier. In the long run, we profit by allowing others to think they can identify outliers while we stay the course.
Yes, Tyreek Hill measured just 5-foot-8 at his Pro Day and went on to elite status. But if we zoom out, he’s the only WR over the last six years to be shorter than 5-foot-10 and record a top-10 fantasy season. So for every Tyreek, there are dozens of others people think are outliers… but really aren’t.
At the very least, evaluating players through Combine athletic testing gives us a uniform, objective set of data. While there will always be outliers, there are certain thresholds that elite NFL wide receivers need to reach. I examined the Combine results for each wide receiver who has finished in the top-10 of fantasy points per game over the last five seasons. There have been 25 of them. The important threshold data:
* 24 of 25 (96%) were at least 5-foot-10.
* 20 of 25 (80%) were at least 190 pounds.
* 22 of 25 (88%) ran a 4.60 or faster 40-yard dash
* 18 of 23 (78%) had a vertical jump of at least 35 inches
* 17 of 21 (81%) had a broad jump of at least 120 inches
In 2018, the WRs who met all thresholds were DJ Moore, Courtland Sutton and DJ Chark. In 2017, the only one was Chris Godwin. The 2019 class exploded with a multitude of qualifiers: Miles Boykin, Parris Campbell, Hakeem Butler, N’Keal Harry, AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin all fit the bill.
This 2020 WR class is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Virtually all of the “consensus” Top-11 prospects meet each of the five minimum thresholds. I’m not surprised that Evan projected seven WRs to go in the first round on April 23 or that people are calling this the greatest WR class of all-time.
The following 2020 WR prospects met all five of the minimum thresholds:
* Jerry Jeudy, Alabama
* Denzel Mims, Baylor
* Justin Jefferson, LSU
* Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State
* Jalen Reagor, TCU
* Michael Pittman, USC
* Chase Claypool, Notre Dame
* Gabriel Davis, Central Florida
* Antonio Gandy-Golden, Liberty
* Kalija Lipscomb, Vanderbilt
* Donovan Peoples-Jones, Michigan
Here’s a closer look at how some of the top prospects stack up through the minimum threshold lens.
Henry Ruggs, Alabama
Ruggs met all the thresholds except for weight. He weighed in at 188 pounds, two under the 190-pound threshold. The wideouts who have overcome these weight limitations to have elite fantasy seasons over the last five years are Tyreek Hill (185 pounds), Antonio Brown (186), TY Hilton (183), Brandin Cooks (189) and Doug Baldwin (189). Much like Hill, Hilton and Cooks, Ruggs has off-the-charts athleticism. He led all Combine wideouts with a 4.27 forty, tied for 2nd with a 42-inch vertical and tied for 4th with a 131-inch broad. Ruggs’ 5’11/188 frame is a slight concern, but it’s not nearly on the same level as Marquise Brown’s 5’9/166 from a year ago.
CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma
Lamb met all the thresholds except for vertical. He just barely missed by recording 34.5 inches, a half-inch below the threshold. The wideouts who have overcome this leaping limitation are Cooper Kupp, Juju Smith-Schuster, Jarvis Landry, Jordy Nelson and AJ Green. The first three, of course, have excelled as slot receivers in their NFL careers. Lamb projects to play all WR positions in the NFL. At 6’2/198, I’m not too worried about this half-inch vertical deficiency.
Tee Higgins, Clemson
Higgins did not participate in the NFL Combine. But he did go through all drills at Clemson’s Pro Day and the results were a bit concerning – especially after adjusting for Pro Day inflation. Higgins finished short of the thresholds with a startlingly-low 31-inch vertical. He also ran a 4.54, which is dangerously close to missing the 4.60 speed threshold once we build in Pro Day adjustments. Higgins did go 59-936-12 as a true sophomore, which is a very positive indicator. That said, I’m treading very lightly here. Josh Norris expressed major concerns on Higgins’ athletic profile in the upcoming Episode 57 of the podcast.
KJ Hamler, Penn State
Hamler did not participate in the Combine due to a hamstring injury. We do know his size though as he measured in at 5’9/178. That’s very small for an elite fantasy wideout – only Tyreek Hill (5-foot-8) has been under 5-foot-10 in our 5-year sample of top-10s. There’s no doubt Hamler is very fast – he claims he ran a 4.27 and his on-field speed looks the part. And he’s also expected to go on Day 2 or 3 – not in Round 1. Hamler certainly looks like a valuable part of an NFL team at his expected cost, but truly elite fantasy production would be an outlier.
