Establish The Run Takes

Last Updated: June 9, 2026

This page is continuously updated with new takes from recent ETR content. Items contain some combination of reactions to news, market sentiment, and macro fantasy football analysis. Each is attributed to the analyst who said it, and you can find the link to the full source for review.

These are not comprehensive summaries. Many insights remain available only in their original form. Our goal is to deliver expert analysis that is actionable, independent, and trustworthy.

 

Previous Takes

 

Episode Summary: 2026 NFL Awards Markets w/ Ryan Reynolds (June 9, 2026)

• Adam Levitan: Joe Burrow at 10:1 MVP is the favorite call. Bengals have the third-easiest schedule. Burrow’s last healthy year was 2024: 4,918 yards, 43 TDs, 70% completion rate, nine INTs. He still finished only fourth in MVP that year because the Bengals won just nine games. If Cincinnati wins 13 or 14 games and Burrow stays healthy, this is the feel-good story. Source: ETR Podcast — Awards Markets Show (6:39)
• Evan Silva: Jayden Daniels at 25:1 MVP is a talent elevator with an awards history. Voters have voted for Daniels for big awards before (Heisman, 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year). His 2024 top-six pass catchers were Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, Olamide Zaccheaus, Austin Ekeler, Noah Brown, and Dyami Brown, all over 30 catches in not the greatest scheme under Kliff Kingsbury. Daniels elevates the talent around him. Reynolds is on the Commanders to win the NFC East, which supports this. Source: ETR Podcast — Awards Markets Show (10:05)
• Evan Silva: Fernando Mendoza should be the OROY favorite at 4:1. Mendoza won the Heisman last year and was the No. 1 overall pick. The Raiders have had one winning season in the last nine. If the Raiders somehow have a winning season and Mendoza starts 10+ games, he’s a virtual lock; he’s got Brock Bowers and Klint Kubiak. Even if he doesn’t start until Week 5 or 6, voters by Week 18 won’t care if he’s turning Vegas around. Source: ETR Podcast — Awards Markets Show (15:46)
• Adam Levitan: KC Concepcion at 30:1 OROY is a real long-shot bet. If Todd Monken can get Deshaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders to play reasonably, Concepcion could be Monken’s new Zay Flowers. Can Concepcion do what Tetairoa McMillan did last year? 70 catches and 1,000 yards isn’t crazy. He had two punt-return TDs and won the Paul Hornung Award last year. Source: ETR Podcast — Awards Markets Show (17:50)
• Ryan Reynolds: Omarion Hampton at 40:1 OPOY is the prediction-market play. Chargers open at home against the Cardinals, then home against the Raiders. If Hampton runs for 250 yards and four TDs in those two games, no surprise. Don’t think he wins it, but he’ll be much more expensive heading into Week 3. Lean into the prediction market for short-term margins. Source: ETR Podcast — Awards Markets Show (26:18)
• Evan Silva: Kenneth Walker III at 35:1 OPOY is underpriced for a Super Bowl MVP. Same voters just gave Walker Super Bowl MVP. The Chiefs gave him a really big contract, and he’s the every-down back. We know he has explosive big-play ability, and his pass-catching ability is no longer the question mark it was at Michigan State. He could be the focal point of the Chiefs’ offense while Patrick Mahomes returns from the knee. Source: ETR Podcast — Awards Markets Show (26:51)
• Adam Levitan: A.J. Brown at 50:1 OPOY is way too long given his contract and trade cost. Patriots gave up a Round 1 pick and $33M guaranteed for Brown. They know if he doesn’t get the ball, he’ll whine and cause problems. So the game plan is going to be feed Brown the ball. Same price as Tetairoa McMillan at 50:1 is silly. Source: ETR Podcast — Awards Markets Show (28:38)
• Adam Levitan: Chris Olave at 100-150:1 OPOY is a slap-in-the-face price. Olave is buried in the OPOY market. Kellen Moore, 10 dome games, shaky defense pushing the team into shootouts, better offensive line. Even if Olave doesn’t win, you’ll get a much better number at some point this season. 100-150:1 to enter, then cash out if he runs hot. Source: ETR Podcast — Awards Markets Show (29:13)
• Evan Silva: Brock Bowers at 80:1 OPOY is a cinch long-shot bet. Bowers won the Mackey Award twice in college. As a rookie, he was the first-team All-Pro tight end, which is incredible. The same voters vote for this award. He has very little competition for pass-catching targets in Vegas. Source: ETR Podcast — Awards Markets Show (30:14)
• Evan Silva: Micah Parsons at 50:1 DPOY is the opportunity to take. Parsons probably doesn’t play until Week 3 or 4 with the Packers, but voters won’t care if he racks up 17 sacks by Week 18. He’s the 2021 Defensive Rookie of the Year and a three-time first-team All-Pro. The same voters have already voted for him for prominent awards. May never get this opportunity again at this price. Source: ETR Podcast — Awards Markets Show (34:20)
• Ryan Reynolds: Dan Quinn at 28:1 COY is a solid value if Washington bounces back. Treating COY as an exceeds-expectations award: sub-.500 to playoffs is the typical winning profile. Jayden Daniels will get the lion’s share of the credit if Washington returns to prominence, but Quinn is still in the conversation. Mispriced at 28:1. Source: ETR Podcast — Awards Markets Show (40:00)
• Adam Levitan: Kevin O’Connell at 30:1 COY is the bet if Kyler Murray plays well. Nothing was wrong with KOC or the Vikings last year. J.J. McCarthy was the problem. If Kyler comes in and plays well, KOC will get a ton of credit. The Vikings were bad and missed the playoffs last year, which fits the bounce-back profile this award rewards. Source: ETR Podcast — Awards Markets Show (43:08)

 

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Episode Summary: Market Monday – June 8 (June 8, 2026)

• Adam Levitan: A.J. Brown is a strong target even at his rising ADP, especially on full-PPR DraftKings. Patriots were fourth in pass rate over expectation last season; Eagles were 19th. Drake Maye averaged 8.9 yards per attempt last year with a dusty pass-catcher corps; Jalen Hurts was at 7.1. Stefon Diggs played only around 60% of snaps last year and went for 85/1,013/4 in his withered state with Maye. The Patriots gave up a Round 1 pick plus $33M guaranteed for Brown, and they knew exactly what they were getting. Source: ETR Podcast — Market Monday (1:20)
• Adam Levitan: Not buying the Jonathon Brooks ADP spike at 107. Brooks tore his right ACL in November 2023, had a weird, slow rehab, returned in December 2024 for 22 yards on nine carries in three games, and then re-tore the same right ACL and missed all of 2025. The Panthers’ average implied team total is 20.6 (27th in the NFL). Chuba Hubbard isn’t a difference-maker, but Carolina gave him a $33M contract extension, and he’s had two seasons with nearly 300 touches. Far behind ADP on Brooks at 107. Source: ETR Podcast — Market Monday (4:09)
• Adam Levitan: Mix in some Tank Dell at 189 but try to get him cheaper. Dell was at OTAs for half-speed work, and Texans GM Nick Caserio said he expects Dell to be ready for the start of training camp. Injury was worse than Brooks’: dislocated kneecap, torn ACL/MCL/LCL, meniscus damage, and multiple surgeries. At 189, upside is there for C.J. Stroud back-stacks with Jayden Higgins, Dalton Schultz, and Jaylin Noel. One negative report and ADP comes crashing back, so try to get him closer to Round 20. Source: ETR Podcast — Market Monday (5:50)
• Adam Levitan: RJ Harvey at 79-85 is interesting after the market crash. Signs on Harvey have been bad: Broncos chased Travis Etienne and Breece Hall before re-signing J.K. Dobbins, drafted Jonah Coleman, who can pass protect, and just traded for Jaylen Waddle to take a lot of targets. But at an ADP of 79-85, it’s hard to find real upside at running back this late. Harvey catches the ball well, is really good in space, and was trusted around the goal line. Enough for me to close my eyes and click at this falling price. Source: ETR Podcast — Market Monday (9:24)
• Adam Levitan: Jaxson Dart at 98 is a buy on the rushing upside. Dart averaged seven carries for 40 yards and 0.75 rushing TDs per game over 12 games last year — absolutely massive. Behind Nabers, it’s dust (Darius Slayton, Isaiah Likely, Darnell Mooney, Theo Johnson, Malachi Fields), plus Matt Nagy at OC. The Giants know Dart can’t sustain that wild-man style, so designed runs are docked a bit. At an ADP of 98, need to be more open to naked Dart or with Cam Skattebo or Tyrone Tracy Jr. Source: ETR Podcast — Market Monday (11:04)

 

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Episode Summary: Market Monday – June 1 (June 1, 2026)

• Adam Levitan: Nico Collins at 23 overall is a solid bet. Last three years, Nico finished 10th, second, and second among WRs in yards per route run, and third in yards per target on 7.8 targets per game. Last two seasons of that came with shaky QB play and shaky scheme. Even if you think C.J. Stroud sucks and Nick Caley doesn’t know what he’s doing, Nico’s floor is so high. Prefer Nico to George Pickens in this range by a smidge, with Chris Olave right there, too. Source: ETR Podcast — Market Monday (1:21)
• Adam Levitan: Stefon Diggs’ ADP at 139 is rising past where I’d rank him. Diggs is still on the street as a free agent after being acquitted in court a few weeks ago. Multiple plausible landing spots (Chiefs perhaps with the Rashee Rice mess, Commanders, Ravens, Bills). But Diggs turns 33 in November, and his average depth of target over the last two years has been really low; he’s really a short-area possession receiver, which is tough in fantasy. Even if he lands in Kansas City or Washington, I doubt we’d get higher than 140 overall on him. Source: ETR Podcast — Market Monday (5:04)
• Adam Levitan: Pass on Josh Jacobs at 39. Wait until closer to 50 to gamble. Jacobs is 28 with a ton of tread on his tires (1,800+ carries plus 269 catches). Didn’t have a single 100-yard rushing game last season, only three runs of 20+ yards on 234 carries; Derrick Henry led the league with 17 on 307. Now comes ugly domestic violence allegations with serious charges, an ongoing investigation, and a 911 call. NFL baseline DV suspension is six games. Getting closer to 50, where Bucky Irving and Quinshon Judkins go, is where I’d gamble. Source: ETR Podcast — Market Monday (6:55)
• Adam Levitan: Jacoby Brissett at ADP 164 isn’t the value. We’ve been massively lower than market on Brissett because we don’t expect him to be the starter late in the season. Carson Beck is coming. New Cardinals staff probably won’t play it like last year (just get behind massive, drop back a zillion times). In best ball, where Weeks 15-17 are all that matter, you can’t take Brissett at 164. Source: ETR Podcast — Market Monday (9:27)

 

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Episode Summary: Silva’s Top-150 Rankings 1.0 (May 28, 2026)

• Evan Silva: Out on De’Von Achane at an ADP of 14. Takes a special coach to commit those workloads to Achane at 188 pounds; the new Dolphins staff is different. Malik Willis is a downfield passer who’ll take off and run on third down rather than dump it to Achane. Receptions could almost get cut in half. Also coming off shoulder surgery, has run hot on health for a sub-190-pound back, and could see real injury regression. Source: ETR Podcast — Silva Top 150 Release (1:18)
• Evan Silva: Easy buy on Ladd McConkey at ADP 41. Chargers played four receivers last year and are narrowing down to multi-TE sets under new OC Mike McDaniel. McConkey is a McDaniel type: sub-4.4 speed, get-the-ball-in-his-hands player. Quarterback stability with Justin Herbert, one of the better QBs in the league. This is the Year 3 McConkey blow-up year. Source: ETR Podcast — Silva Top 150 Release (5:05)
• Evan Silva: Out on Omarion Hampton at ADP 16, high on Keaton Mitchell. Mike McDaniel will fall in love with Keaton Mitchell and get him the ball. Don’t know how good Hampton actually is. He showed a little positive and a lot of negative as a rookie, and Jim Harbaugh has also fallen in love with Kimani Vidal. Worst-case scenario for Hampton is a three-way committee where he doesn’t smash at all. Source: ETR Podcast — Silva Top 150 Release (8:00)
• Evan Silva: Buying virtually every Saints player, including Chris Olave at 16. Saints play indoors. Believe in Tyler Shough and Kellen Moore. Olave showed last year that he’s an elite WR1, and almost everybody before the draft thought Jordyn Tyson was the best receiver in the class. Saints won’t stop anybody, so this is a shootout offense, and I’m being really aggressive drafting their players. Source: ETR Podcast — Silva Top 150 Release (11:23)
• Evan Silva: Colston Loveland over Trey McBride at the top of tight end. Caleb Williams is within range of being a top-five quarterback in his second year under Ben Johnson. Loveland is his best pass catcher by a wide margin. McBride has QB question marks: Jacoby Brissett is threatening a holdout, Carson Beck could be starting by Week 5, and Mike LaFleur and Nathaniel Hackett won’t let their QB drop back 50 times a game like Brissett did last year. Loveland’s situation is much more bankable. Source: ETR Podcast — Silva Top 150 Release (13:21)
• Evan Silva: High on Breece Hall at 19. Jets just need to be competitive. Jets have a really good offensive line, and Geno Smith was a decent starter for several seasons before the Raiders last year. If the Jets win six or seven games and are competitive, Hall smashes behind that line. Hall is a true three-down running back, good in multiple phases of the game. People don’t want to draft him because of the team, but he’s really good. Source: ETR Podcast — Silva Top 150 Release (16:25)
• Evan Silva: High on Terry McLaurin at 34. David Blough will move him around. It was ridiculous that Kliff Kingsbury wouldn’t move McLaurin around. Target competition on the Commanders is almost nonexistent. Jayden Daniels is back in a better offensive system, and McLaurin will cook right along with him. Source: ETR Podcast — Silva Top 150 Release (19:16)
• Evan Silva: Out on Cam Skattebo at ADP 44. Prefer Tyrone Tracy Jr. Skattebo dislocated his ankle, fractured his fibula, and tore his deltoid ligament halfway through last season. Not taking a running back coming off that injury with a limited track record in the fourth round. Giants added nothing at running back this offseason. Between the two, at cost, prefer Tyrone Tracy Jr. Source: ETR Podcast — Silva Top 150 Release (26:54)
• Evan Silva: Kyle Pitts at 61 versus ADP 104 is the boldest call on the board. Falcons pass-catcher corps is just Kyle Pitts and Drake London with nobody else. Pitts is rounding into shape physically after the knee injury bothered him for several seasons. He’s still 25, and he had 118 targets and 88 catches last year. We’re letting the injury hangover bias the view of him now that he’s healthy. Source: ETR Podcast — Silva Top 150 Release (30:32)
• Evan Silva: Josh Downs can be the Colts’ WR1 and lead them in every receiving category. Michael Pittman Jr. is gone. Alec Pierce has been largely a one-trick pony in the NFL and is coming off a surprise ankle surgery. Downs is good. He’s going to jump into two-WR sets, play every down, and could even out-target Tyler Warren. This is set up to be his breakout season. Source: ETR Podcast — Silva Top 150 Release (33:05)
• Evan Silva: Streamlined Packers WR corps unlocks Matthew Golden at 88. Packers will streamline the WR corps this year to Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, and Jayden Reed. Previously, they would play as many as five receivers on game day in a big rotation. Matt LaFleur talked about it: more benefits to streamlining include building chemistry with Jordan Love and getting guys into rhythm. Golden got trapped as a fourth receiver in the old rotation, and now he’s set for a near every-down role. Source: ETR Podcast — Silva Top 150 Release (36:39)
• Evan Silva: Out on Jacory Croskey-Merritt at 131. Rachaad White will end up leading the Washington backfield in snaps. Kaytron Allen could be just as good as Croskey-Merritt, if not better. PFF College had Kaytron as the No. 2-graded RB in the nation last season behind only Jeremiyah Love in pure rushing. Croskey-Merritt is also one-dimensional and basically a zero in the receiving game. Source: ETR Podcast — Silva Top 150 Release (44:11)

 

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Episode Summary: Market Monday – May 25 (May 25, 2026)

• Adam Levitan: Wait for Nabers’ ADP to fall closer to Round 4 before loading up. Zero interest in fully fading Nabers. His ability to command targets is wild, and there’s not much competition on the Giants anyway. Wouldn’t want to bet against him getting 12 targets in Week 16 at Detroit or Week 17 at Dallas. ETR is at 35 overall on DraftKings versus an ADP of 28; once he gets closer to Round 4, that’s where I’ll get my exposure. Source: ETR Podcast — Market Monday (3:18)
• Adam Levitan: Rashee Rice’s ADP fall isn’t done yet. Rice was on probation, got caught smoking weed, and went to jail just a week after a four- to six-week cleanup procedure on his right knee. Not too worried about the knee with three and a half months until Week 1. The bigger concern is a potential suspension; Rice is embarrassing The Shield, and the off-field history (2024 high-speed crash and fled scene, alleged May 2024 photographer punch, open February 2026 domestic violence accusation) makes him a special case. ETR was at 18 before this; now 25 on DraftKings, 29 on Underdog, and thinking about going lower. Source: ETR Podcast — Market Monday (3:52)
• Adam Levitan: Xavier Worthy at ADP 112 is a path to take shots. Chiefs are trying to pin Worthy’s miserable 2025 season on the shoulder injury he sustained when Travis Kelce ran into him. Not sure I’d buy that explanation. But at ADP 112, the cost is so low that the Rashee Rice suspension possibilities plus the 2025 injury excuse give you a path to take shots on Worthy. Source: ETR Podcast — Market Monday (6:13)
• Adam Levitan: Chig Okonkwo could be the Commanders’ second target behind Terry McLaurin, but ADP 152 is too steep. Withered Zach Ertz averaged 5.4 targets per game with the Commanders over the last two seasons, and now Deebo Samuel is gone. Not crazy to think Chig could be second in targets behind McLaurin. But Washington is the team most likely to add another wide receiver (Brandon Aiyuk and Stefon Diggs are still out there), so ETR is building in unlisted targets there. Most likely outcome on Chig is a usable-score season, not a true breakout. Source: ETR Podcast — Market Monday (8:07)
• Adam Levitan: ETR is ahead of market on Josh Downs at 102 versus ADP 110. Jayden Reed and Josh Downs are similar players: very good but pigeonholed as slot-only and three-WR-set-only by their coaches. The Colts need Downs to expand his role. Behind Alec Pierce, it’s Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Anthony Gould, Ashton Dulin, and more dust. Colts coaches have talked this offseason about expanding Downs, giving him more outside chances. Source: ETR Podcast — Market Monday (10:24)
• Adam Levitan: Tank Bigsby at ADP 186 is the cleanest one-injury-away RB. If Saquon Barkley goes down, Bigsby is the very direct backup. He’s still only 23, got 5.9 yards per carry for the Eagles last year on a small sample (58 carries), and would play in short-yardage situations. Sean Mannion’s new under-center, more Shanahan-style scheme is good for Bigsby, too. Cleaner contingent than Will Shipley behind Barkley as a pass-down back only, Isiah Pacheco behind Jahmyr Gibbs, Brian Robinson Jr. behind Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier behind Jeremiyah Love, or Mike Washington Jr. behind Ashton Jeanty. Source: ETR Podcast — Market Monday (11:51)

 

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Episode Summary: Ranking 2026 Rookie Year 1 Landing Spots (May 6, 2026)

• Adam Levitan: Jordyn Tyson is the No. 1 rookie landing spot of the 2026 draft. Tyson lands with the Saints, where the lack of WR competition plus No. 8 overall draft capital should put him in two-WR sets right away. He plays for Kellen Moore (highly capable, up-tempo) and gets 10 dome games. The Saints’ defense is shaky on pass rush and corner play, which can lead to shootouts. Improved offensive line with David Edwards there and Erik McCoy back healthy. Source: ETR Podcast — Rookie Landing Spots Show (1:05)
• Evan Silva: Jordyn Tyson is in his own tier of rookie landing spots. Elite No. 8 overall draft capital. Chris Olave is an alpha “but not so much,” and the rest of the Saints’ pass-catcher room (Juwan Johnson, Noah Fant, Devaughn Vele) consists of clear-cut role players. Tyson can get fairly close to Olave in market share right away. Source: ETR Podcast — Rookie Landing Spots Show (2:00)
• Adam Levitan: Jadarian Price has one of the best RB landing spots, period. Seattle ranked 30th in pass rate over expectation last season. Their QB, Sam Darnold, doesn’t run, resulting in 435 RB carries over 17 regular-season games. Even if Price cedes work to George Holani or Emanuel Wilson, there are so many carries to go around that it’s still a really good landing spot. Source: ETR Podcast — Rookie Landing Spots Show (3:58)
• Evan Silva: Price has the upside to run away with the Seahawks’ backfield until Zach Charbonnet returns. Don’t know when Charbonnet will return or at what level of effectiveness (he wasn’t that effective to begin with). Murmurs that the injury was more severe than just a straight ACL tear. Last year, Klint Kubiak was committed to almost a 50/50 committee, but the new offensive staff doesn’t carry that commitment. If Price crushes, he can run away with the backfield. Source: ETR Podcast — Rookie Landing Spots Show (4:51)
• Adam Levitan: Carnell Tate should quickly become the alpha for Brian Daboll. Calvin Ridley, Wan’Dale Robinson, and the rest of the Titans’ WR room all have a ton of warts. If Tate is actually worthy of the No. 4 overall pick, he should win the alpha role for Daboll. Daboll wasn’t afraid to load up rookies. Malik Nabers had 170 targets as a rookie in 15 games (11.3 per game) with the Giants in 2024. Source: ETR Podcast — Rookie Landing Spots Show (7:00)
• Evan Silva: Jeremiyah Love’s only landing-spot positive is the No. 3 overall pick. Tyler Allgeier was created to be a goal-line and short-yardage pounder, and they’ll want to give him the ball there. James Conner won’t get kept around as a veteran without a specified role; figure 25-35% of snaps with a lot of pass-blocking duties, net negative on Love and Allgeier. Nathaniel Hackett is the OC, which is brutal. The offensive line is bottom 10 in the league at best. Source: ETR Podcast — Rookie Landing Spots Show (11:33)
• Adam Levitan: Antonio Williams to Washington is an awesome landing spot. Treylon Burks is the WR2 right now, and Jayden Daniels wants to throw to the slot, but Luke McCaffrey isn’t it. Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings landing in Washington is far from a lock. Team remains bad defensively, and if Daniels finds his rookie-year 69% completion form, this is a really good spot. Have been taking a ton of Antonio Williams early in best ball. Source: ETR Podcast — Rookie Landing Spots Show (16:11)
• Adam Levitan: Kaytron Allen has a real Year 1 path in the Commanders’ ambiguous backfield. Sixth-round draft capital was disappointing. Competition is Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt (explosive runner, limited overall) and Rachaad White (decent player, very limited overall). Not crazy to think this backfield is ambiguous enough that Kaytron finds a Year 1 role pretty quickly. Source: ETR Podcast — Rookie Landing Spots Show (38:26)
• Evan Silva: Zachariah Branch’s landing spot is sneaky awesome. It’s Drake London, then a whole lot of nothing in the pass-catcher corps. Rumors the Falcons are still trying to trade Kyle Pitts, which would clear up even more passing-game volume. Atlanta playing home games indoors is a plus. Branch was a dynamic, electrifying return man in college and runs a 4.35. Source: ETR Podcast — Rookie Landing Spots Show (41:55)
• Evan Silva: Eli Stowers is a 2027 play, not 2026. Stowers is going to be a situational receiving-only TE until he shows the ability to be a blocker. Bottom end of his potential landing spots, given the run-first nature of the offense, plus Dallas Goedert and Grant Calcaterra already there, and Jalen Hurts’ near-refusal to throw the ball over the middle. Just a talent-collection move by Howie Roseman. Won’t see results before 2027, maybe late 2026. Source: ETR Podcast — Rookie Landing Spots Show (46:01)

 

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Episode Summary: Best Ball Risers & Fallers – Market Monday (May 4, 2026)

• Adam Levitan: Buy Jayden Reed at 95 overall on DraftKings. Reed’s five-game route share last season was 55%, 84%, 67%, 65%, and 52%; a fair expectation for 2026 is a high-50s/mid-60s route share. He won’t push into two-WR sets over Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, but if Watson or Golden gets hurt, Reed should jump Savion Williams and Bo Melton in those packages. The Packers should be significantly more throw-heavy in 2026 with Jordan Love operating as an easy top-10 QB on a per-dropback basis. Source: ETR Podcast — Market Monday (2:02)
• Adam Levitan: Pass on Brandon Aiyuk at 158. Reports of bad attitude, contract void stuff, and not doing the proper rehab on his October 2024 ACL/MCL/meniscus tear. The 49ers’ hard deadline is Sept. 1, when they owe Aiyuk a $25 million option bonus. So many dots connecting Aiyuk to the Commanders, but if I’m drafting right now, Jauan Jennings is safer for usable scores. Source: ETR Podcast — Market Monday (12:21)
• Adam Levitan: Bhayshul Tuten’s ADP will keep dipping. Wait until July or August in the 70s. Volume upside is capped. Liam Coen clearly likes Chris Rodriguez Jr. (coached him at Kentucky, had glowing quotes, brought him to Jacksonville in free agency), and LeQuint Allen Jr. will get most of the clear passing situations. Beat writers Ryan O’Halloran and John Shipley expect a relatively even rushing split between Tuten and Rodriguez. Capped volume for a back going in the 50s is a little scary. Source: ETR Podcast — Market Monday (15:04)

 

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Episode Summary: 2026 NFL Draft Team-by-Team Grades w/ Silva (April 27, 2026)

• Adam Levitan: Jeremiyah Love is closer to a third-round fantasy pick on raw projection. Once you mix in Tyler Allgeier carries, James Conner work, target volume on Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Michael Wilson, and regress Jacoby Brissett dropbacks back to normal, the math gets hard. We juiced his ceiling to land at 23 overall on DraftKings, but the model wanted him later. Expect him to go ahead of our rank in drafts. Source: ETR Podcast — Draft Grades (5:53)
• Evan Silva: Tyler Allgeier owns the short-yardage and goal-line work in Arizona. It is a tank year, and the Cardinals have no reason to load Love up in Year 1. Allgeier is 15-20 pounds heavier and was already good at this exact role in Atlanta. James Conner stays as the pass-protection back. Touchdowns tilt fantasy, and Love is going to have to hit them from a long way out. Source: ETR Podcast — Draft Grades (6:42)
• Evan Silva: Zachariah Branch could get serious early playing time behind Drake London. Falcons took him at 79 overall over Ja’Kobi Lane, Chris Brazzell II, Ted Hurst, and others, so they like him. He ran 4.35 at 177 pounds and was effective when he was not stuck in the screen game. The depth chart behind London is wide open. Source: ETR Podcast — Draft Grades (8:51)
• Adam Levitan: Jonathon Brooks at 144 in our ranks moves up if the health reports clear. Panthers passing on a running back despite losing Rico Dowdle is a quiet vote of confidence in Brooks. Chuba Hubbard does not bring the explosive element, and we already saw Hubbard lose his job briefly to Dowdle last year. J.K. Dobbins came back from multiple knee injuries, so it is not a hopeless path for Brooks. Source: ETR Podcast — Draft Grades (12:13)
• Adam Levitan: Isaac TeSlaa walks into the Lions’ WR3 role. Lions gave up a third-round pick to acquire him last year, so the investment is real. We have him at 183 in the ranks. If you like the prospect more than the math, taking him above that is fine. Source: ETR Podcast — Draft Grades (24:54)
• Adam Levitan: The Packers’ WR room finally condenses to four real targets. After letting Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks walk and not drafting a receiver, the targets concentrate on Tucker Kraft, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Matthew Golden. Jordan Love has been one of the best EPA passers in the NFL over the last two years. Josh Jacobs is 28 with tread on his tires, so a pass-rate spike is realistic. Source: ETR Podcast — Draft Grades (26:34)
• Adam Levitan: We are going to be higher than market on Davante Adams in the gutted Rams room. Behind Puka Nacua, the depth chart is Adams, Konata Mumpfield, Xavier Smith, and Jordan Whittington. Even with Adams looking out of gas late last year, the volume math is too clean. Touchdown-heavy formats lean into him hardest. Source: ETR Podcast — Draft Grades (30:51)
• Adam Levitan: I am hammering the Saints across the board in futures markets. Saints +340 to win the NFC South, +240 to make the playoffs, over 6.5 wins at -145, and a long-shot Saints to win the NFC at 70-1. Add David Edwards, get Erik McCoy back healthy, add Jordyn Tyson, bring in Travis Etienne. Kellen Moore wants to run the most plays in the NFL, and they get 10 dome games. Source: ETR Podcast — Draft Grades (36:14)
• Adam Levitan: Don’t rule out Skyler Bell carving a Bills role despite the fourth-round capital. Bills passed on Denzel Boston at 35 to take TJ Parker, then came back for Bell in Round 4. Khalil Shakir is too limited to be the locked-in WR2, and Keon Coleman is the same name they have been talking up for two years. Bell ran 4.4 with 1,278 yards and 13 TDs at UConn last year. Source: ETR Podcast — Draft Grades (1:04:22)
• Adam Levitan: RJ Harvey is in real trouble with Jonah Coleman taking goal-line and pass-pro work. Sean Payton has openly criticized Harvey, and they signed J.K. Dobbins to a real deal. Harvey’s only NFL skill is as a pass catcher, and they do not trust him on passing downs. Coleman fits the chain-mover plus goal-line role they want. Three-way split is the floor. Source: ETR Podcast — Draft Grades (1:10:51)
• Adam Levitan: David Montgomery walks into a workhorse runway in Houston. Texans did not draft a back. Woody Marks was unimpressive as a rookie. We have Montgomery at 57 overall on DraftKings, which feels right. The efficiency concern is real because that run scheme has not produced for a long time, but the volume floor is locked in. Source: ETR Podcast — Draft Grades (1:13:13)
• Adam Levitan: Malik Willis legitimately might run for 1,000 yards behind that massive Dolphins line. Patrick Paul is 6-foot-8, 331; Kadyn Proctor is 6-foot-7, 352; and the offense is built to run RPO on every play. Willis does not have the bench risk Justin Fields had last year. Late-round Chris Bell and Caleb Douglas are the WR1 darts in his stack at Rounds 18-20. Source: ETR Podcast — Draft Grades (1:30:33)

 

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Episode: Actionable Fantasy Takes: ETR Episode 975 — NFL Draft Round 1 Reaction (April 24, 2026)

• John Daigle: Jeremiyah Love still has a Bijan-style passing-game role baked into the Cardinals’ offense. At Notre Dame, he averaged 27-28 receptions per year despite running a heavy ground game with Riley Leonard. Better situation than the Jeanty/Raiders comp because the Cardinals added Isaac Seumalo and Elijah Wilkinson, have better receivers around him, and Trey McBride is the Brock Bowers stand-in. Wait for any ADP discount. Source: ETR Podcast — Round 1 Reaction (5:38)
• Evan Silva: Tyler Allgeier is going to steal real goal-line work from Love. Cardinals are essentially in a tank year, so loading up Love is not the plan. Allgeier is a 230-pound No. 2 back they are paying real money for. Give him the hard-yardage and short-yardage carries and let Love catch passes from Jacoby Brissett. Source: ETR Podcast — Round 1 Reaction (7:04)
• John Daigle: Cam Ward is the biggest fantasy beneficiary of the Tate pick, not Tate himself. Ward finished outside the top 30 in basically every passing category as a rookie. Brian Daboll developed Josh Allen and dragged Daniel Jones to the playoffs by maximizing strengths. The room went from Calvin Ridley plus dust to Ridley plus Wan’Dale Robinson plus Carnell Tate, which makes Ward a hold-your-nose breakout QB2. Source: ETR Podcast — Round 1 Reaction (12:32)
• Evan Silva: The Saints are the buy-low offense in fantasy. Final five games of last season, they ran 5.7 yards per play. Add David Edwards, a healthy Erik McCoy, Jordyn Tyson, Noah Fant, and Tyler Shough‘s first full year as a starter. Kellen Moore wants to run the most plays in the NFL, so the play-volume bonanza is real. Source: ETR Podcast — Round 1 Reaction (16:01)
• Evan Silva: Take Jordyn Tyson over Carnell Tate straight up in redraft. Chris Olave is locked in as the Saints’ WR1, but Tyson can have big games right away in a dome with the Bucs, Falcons, and Panthers on the schedule. The Saints’ offensive line is set, the run game is set, and Shough showed enough down the stretch last year. Tate is the WR2 on a rebuilding team. Source: ETR Podcast — Round 1 Reaction (15:21)
• Evan Silva: The Rams blew it taking Ty Simpson at 13 instead of Makai Lemon. Davante Adams looked out of gas down the stretch last year and Puka’s off-field history is real. Lemon would have been a perfect fit for this offense in a tight Super Bowl window. Sean McVay‘s body language at the draft told you everything about how he felt. Source: ETR Podcast — Round 1 Reaction (21:39)
• Evan Silva: Kenyon Sadiq at 16 to the Jets is a real fantasy path despite the crowded room. He ran 4.39 at 241 pounds with first-round production. On tape, he moves like a wide receiver. 16th overall draft capital, plus that profile, means snaps will come. Source: ETR Podcast — Round 1 Reaction (28:34)
• John Daigle: Sadiq and Omar Cooper Jr. are the same player profile, which is a target-share concern. Both had 70% of their college catches from the slot, and both are YAC machines. Cooper led the entire class with a forced missed tackle on 39% of his catches. Hard to see both posting clean fantasy lines with Geno Smith potentially missing games on a bad team. Source: ETR Podcast — Round 1 Reaction (30:00)
• Evan Silva: Makai Lemon’s Year 1 fantasy outlook in Philly is a fade. Jalen Hurts has the lowest middle-of-the-field target rate of any QB since entering the league. DeVonta Smith remains the alpha, and the Eagles paid Dontayvion Wicks real money. Lemon is closer to a 55% snap player as a rookie than the 80% target you want from a draftable WR. Source: ETR Podcast — Round 1 Reaction (33:13)
• Adam Levitan: DeVonta Smith is the unquestioned Eagles WR1 with A.J. Brown out. Adam Schefter has the trade going down post-June 1 to New England. A.J. and DeVonta posted big seasons together with Hurts already, so Smith carrying the alpha workload is not a stretch. He moves up a tier in redraft rankings. Source: ETR Podcast — Round 1 Reaction (37:38)
• Adam Levitan: Fernando Mendoza at +400 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year is the bet of the market. DraftKings has the best price; FanDuel is +350 and some books are at +425. Even if Kirk Cousins starts the first three to four weeks, Mendoza balling out by Week 9 erases that. Bowers, Ashton Jeanty, and an improved offensive line under Klint Kubiak is the cleanest setup of any rookie QB in the class. Source: ETR Podcast — Round 1 Reaction (47:33)

 

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Episode: 2026 ETR Mock Draft w/ Silva, Smith, Standig, & Renner (April 21, 2026)

• Scott Smith: Carnell Tate to Washington at 7 is the cleanest WR fit in Round 1. Washington cannot run it back with Treylon Burks as the WR2 and expect Jayden Daniels to carry another full season. Adam Peters has the highest average RAS score of any drafter since taking the GM job, and Tate’s power-five pedigree fits that archetype. Source: ETR Podcast — 2026 Mock Draft (7:56)
• Adam Levitan: Tyson vs. Tate for first WR off the board is a coin flip. Tyson was +700 to be WR1 off the board a few weeks ago. He is +150 now against Tate after that workout. Any lingering Tate-only sides in prop pools are a fade. Source: ETR Podcast — 2026 Mock Draft (11:04)
• Mike Renner: Ty Simpson at 21 is the only swing that justifies the McCarthy hire in Pittsburgh. He is clearly a better prospect than Kenny Pickett. McCarthy’s entire track record is young-QB development, which is the only rational reason to hire him now. The Steelers will not pick high enough to land a top QB in future classes, so take the shot at 21. Source: ETR Podcast — 2026 Mock Draft (25:47)
• Adam Levitan: Treat A.J. Brown as a Patriot going forward. Schefter posted what reads as confirmation of a post-June 1 trade to New England. Drake Maye gets a legitimate alpha, DeVonta Smith becomes the Eagles’ unquestioned WR1, and Patriots ancillary pieces all take a hit. Update your rankings now rather than waiting for the announcement. Source: ETR Podcast — 2026 Mock Draft (28:32)

 

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Episode: 2026 NFL Draft QB & TE Tier List w/ Mike Renner (April 13, 2026)

• Mike Renner: Mendoza is the best QB under pressure since Joe Burrow. S-tier prospect. Would have been QB3 in the 2024 class behind Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. Two years of elite tape operating in tight pockets between Cal and Indiana. Source: ETR Podcast — QB & TE Tier Show (0:55)
• Adam Levitan: Mendoza to Vegas at 1 overall is the best possible fantasy landing spot. Klint Kubiak‘s offense with Brock Bowers already there. Don’t expect rushing upside though. Renner says he’s heavy-footed. Pure passer. Source: ETR Podcast — QB & TE Tier Show (4:15)
• Mike Renner: Ty Simpson is an A-tier QB who’s going in the first round. Plus arm, just as good as Mendoza’s. More fleet of foot. Had 394 true NFL dropback passing reps in Kalen DeBoer‘s offense, almost double what some other QBs in this class had. Renner would bet a lot of money that he goes Round 1. Source: ETR Podcast — QB & TE Tier Show (5:09)
• Mike Renner: Nussmeier has Brock Purdy-tier arm strength. That’s a problem. C tier. Great football IQ, son of an NFL coach, creative pocket mover. But 6-foot-2, 203 pounds with the weakest arm on this list. Got benched last year. Best case is a Mac Jones type in the right system. Source: ETR Podcast — QB & TE Tier Show (11:43)
• Mike Renner: Drew Allar has the best tools in the class, but can’t throw a spiral. D tier. If he came out last year, he’d have been between B and C. The tools are crazy. 70+ yard throws with ease, quick feet, doesn’t take sacks. But through four years of college, the accuracy never got fixed. That’s the one thing that’s hardest to fix at the next level. Source: ETR Podcast — QB & TE Tier Show (13:49)
• Mike Renner: Carson Beck is a pure backup at the NFL level. D tier, below Drew Allar. 6-foot-5, 233 pounds, has the size. But the UCL tear robbed him of arm strength, and in big games, he just didn’t show up. That game-losing interception in the Natty was the theme of his career. Source: ETR Podcast — QB & TE Tier Show (16:50)
• Mike Renner: Cole Payton is QB3 on his board and a legit fantasy sleeper. C tier. 6-foot-3, 232 pounds, 40-inch vertical, 10-foot-10 broad jump. Almost 900 rushing yards at NDSU. Best thrower on the move in this class. 35 of 161 completions went 20+ yards. Todd McShay has him in the 60s overall. Source: ETR Podcast — QB & TE Tier Show (19:13)
• Adam Levitan: Cole Payton is a preseason DFS dream. Give him three quarters in the preseason, and let’s see if he runs for 100 yards. The rushing upside makes him worth tracking in fantasy even if he’s a developmental guy in Year 1. Source: ETR Podcast — QB & TE Tier Show (22:42)
• Mike Renner: Kenyon Sadiq is the best TE athlete since Vernon Davis. But he can’t play in line. A-tier TE. 4.39, 43.5-inch vertical, 11-foot-1 broad jump. More fluid than even Davis. But 6-foot-3, 240 pounds, can’t match power in line, and the ball skills worry him. Drops in contested catches, limited catch radius. His role is going to be Harold Fannin Jr./slot hybrid. Source: ETR Podcast — QB & TE Tier Show (24:26)
• Mike Renner: Eli Stowers has the highest fantasy ceiling of any TE not named Sadiq. C tier. Was a QB at Texas A&M three years ago at 215. Now 6-foot-4, 239 pounds with a 45.5-inch vertical. Still developing as a route runner, but the physical trajectory is wild. Mike Gesicki is the comp. Source: ETR Podcast — QB & TE Tier Show (28:45)
• Adam Levitan: Stowers is the ceiling play, Klare is the floor play at TE2. Stowers is going way higher in rookie drafts for good reason. But guys like this don’t play enough snaps early to raise their floor. Think Dalton Kincaid at 50% snap share, or Mike Gesicki. Max Klare is the Dalton Schultz/Pat Freiermuth type who just catches everything underneath. Source: ETR Podcast — QB & TE Tier Show (31:51)
• Mike Renner: Nate Boerkircher is the TE sleeper nobody’s data model will find. C tier. 19 catches, 198 yards last year. Zero production to speak of. But he was the best TE at the Senior Bowl in 1-on-1s, gets in and out of breaks better than anyone in this class, had only two career drops, and caught a game-winner against Notre Dame. Jake Ferguson comp. Source: ETR Podcast — QB & TE Tier Show (38:23)

 

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Episode: 2026 NFL Draft RB Tier List w/ Mike Renner (April 9, 2026)

• Jeremiyah Love is going to cost a 1/2 turn pick in fantasy drafts. He’s likely a top-seven pick in the NFL Draft (Titans at 4, Giants at 5, Commanders at 7). A running back going that high means workload. — Levitan
• Renner has Love as his third-highest-graded prospect in the entire draft, any position. S tier. Jahmyr Gibbs comp but 14 pounds heavier. Prefers Love over Gibbs as a prospect “pretty comfortably” due to the sub-200-pound concern with Gibbs. — Renner
• Jadarian Price to Seattle at 32 is the fantasy scenario to watch. If the Seahawks take Price, his ADP is going through the roof. — Renner
• Price is a better pure receiver than most backs in this class. Zero career drops. Pass pro is technique, not effort — that gets fixed at the NFL level. He’s a B-tier back who can start right away for someone. — Renner
• Bhayhsul Tuten would only be RB3 in this draft class. That’s how weak this class is. Renner didn’t even have Tuten that high last year — he’d just be third here by default. — Renner
• Levitan thinks Chris Rodriguez Jr. will be the lead back over Tuten in Jacksonville. Got destroyed on Twitter for it, but stands by it. Tuten is a fourth-round pick who had 386 yards as a rookie. — Levitan
• Emmett Johnson has a real fantasy/real life split. Catches the ball at an outrageous rate, which is obviously valuable in fantasy. But Renner has him in the F tier — slow, small, timid between the tackles, pedestrian testing. Ceiling is a third-down back. — Renner/Levitan
• Jonah Coleman could go on Day 2 and get on the field early because he can pass protect. Renner has an F-tier grade, but at the RB position, opportunity is everything. If he gets drafted higher than expected, the pass protection gives him a path to early snaps. — Levitan
• Nick Singleton is likely just a kickoff return guy right away. Broke his foot at the Senior Bowl, couldn’t test, hasn’t improved since his freshman year, and got outplayed by Kaytron Allen. Renner has him in the F tier. But he’s still only 21 — there’s a development case if you want to buy it. — Renner
• Levitan is higher on Singleton than the market. Doesn’t want to hold the bad 2024 season against him because the entire Penn State team was atrocious. 102 career catches. Used on kickoff returns. The broken foot killed his ability to test and boost his draft stock. — Levitan
• Incumbents are going to be safer this year. With only two backs in Renner’s top four tiers, the usual pattern of rookies taking over after the bye is way less likely in 2026. Factor that into early drafts. — Levitan
• Kaytron Allen is Renner’s RB3 but likely won’t excite anyone. D tier. Opted out of all testing — probably because he’d run a 4.71. But he averaged 6.2 YPC, amassed 1,300 yards last season, and scored 15 TDs. Runs the way you need to run in the NFL. Kyle Juszczyk/Samaje Perine-type value if he lands right. — Renner/Levitan

 

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