As expected, the Raiders made Fernando Mendoza the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft on Thursday. This has been a foregone conclusion for months following a historic season that ended with Mendoza hoisting both the national championship trophy and the Heisman, but the day for Las Vegas to make things official has finally arrived. Let’s break down what this pick means from a fantasy standpoint.
FERNANDO MENDOZA
- Mendoza was only a three-star prospect out of high school and redshirted during his first season at Cal before producing acceptably in his first season as a starter, averaging 7.0 yards per attempt with 14 touchdowns and 10 picks. He got better in Year 2 — 7.8 YPA, 16-6 TD-to-INT ratio — and drew the eye of now-legendary Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti. The success of his final college season is well-documented: a Heisman-winning campaign with 41 passing scores and only six interceptions to go along with a national championship. Scouts praise his accuracy and poise, noting the mistake-free football he played down the stretch for the Hoosiers in 2025. Mendoza is not a burner by any means, but he had 90 carries for 276 yards (sacks are negative rushing yards in college) and nine touchdowns last season, and he’s confident in RPO actions. He’s been widely expected to go No. 1 overall for months, and the Raiders brought that to fruition on Thursday night.
- Here’s the catch: Mendoza may not start in Week 1. Dianna Russini reported in early March that the Raiders prefer not to start Mendoza immediately. Every franchise that drafts an early-round QB pretends they have to earn their stripes before getting the starting job, but Las Vegas has Tom Brady — who, of course, sat and learned behind Drew Bledsoe before getting forced into action — as part of their decision-making process. The Raiders signed Kirk Cousins this offseason, and Ian Rapoport reported that Cousins will “likely be starting games” for them this season. Raiders GM John Spytek has since said that the best quarterback between Mendoza, Cousins, and Aidan O’Connell will start. It seems highly likely Mendoza is already the best quarterback in this room, but Vegas clearly has decision-makers who believe sitting behind a veteran is a critical part of a QB’s developmental process. Mendoza is the most pro-ready quarterback in the class by far, but the Raiders seem far more serious about making him sit and learn than previous franchises who simply played the charade. Still, Mendoza could show out in camp and win the job. We’ll see.
- Klint Kubiak‘s Seahawks boasted the lowest pass rate in football last year with a -6.7% Pass Rate Over Expectation. Kubiak’s Saints had a -5.2% PROE in 2024 and just a 60.2% pass rate despite a 5-12 record, and they recorded -9% and -13% PROEs in Weeks 1 and 2 while scoring 40+ points in both games. He wants to run the ball, and his offenses have enjoyed great success doing so. Even once Mendoza is the starter, it’ll be very difficult for him to ascend into anything more than a weekly streamer in this offense.
RAIDERS PASS CATCHERS
- Mendoza is an upgrade over the disastrous quarterback carousel that Raiders pass catchers dealt with in 2025, but we’ve known he was going to be the pick for months. As such, there shouldn’t be any significant changes in ADP based on this pick.
- The rest of the draft will be critical for determining the value of incumbent Las Vegas wideouts. It would be malpractice to go into the 2026 season with Tre Tucker as the WR1 for your No. 1 overall pick quarterback, so expect the Raiders to add WR help during the rest of the draft.
- Regardless, Brock Bowers will be the top pass catcher for Mendoza. Bowers had an odd sophomore campaign, dealing with a knee injury and Pete Carroll‘s usage shenanigans, but he should be all systems go for Year 3. We’ve seen the upside — 112/1,194/5 as a rookie — and now he gets Mendoza and the best offensive mind he’s had yet in Kubiak. Expect a run-first offense in Las Vegas, but Bowers should be the featured weapon among the receivers.
- Ashton Jeanty plodded to 975 yards on 3.7 yards per carry as a rookie in a horrific offensive environment, and he may benefit more than anyone from the added competency at head coach and quarterback this offseason. Kubiak is on the record saying he wants a “two-man show” at RB this season, and Kenneth Walker III managers will be quick to tell you he’s serious about that. But the Raiders will score more than 14.2 PPG this year, and they added Tyler Linderbaum in free agency to address the offensive line concerns. As mentioned above, this should’ve been fully baked into ADP already, but it’s worth reinforcing that the situation is far better for Jeanty in Year 2.
