After a thrilling Nuggets win on Tuesday, we get another Game 7 as the nightcap. Just like yesterday, both these games should be pretty close, and they opened at the same exact 221 O/U (the OKC-HOU O/U dropped a bit). As we learn more about the second-round matchups, I will put more notes in there, so this edition has a lot about the Heat-Bucks series again.
Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks (-4), 6:30 pm ET
Team totals: Heat 107.8, Bucks 112.8
Injury News: Eric Bledsoe (hamstring awareness) is questionable, and will likely be a game-time call.
Heat Expected Starters: Goran Dragic, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Bam Adebayo
Bucks Expected Starters: Eric Bledsoe, Wesley Matthews, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez
Heat Rotation Notes: Jae Crowder played the full fourth (only Heat player), Kelly Olynyk had no overlap with Bam (and didn’t even get all the C2 minutes, Jae had some), main closing lineup was Dragic, Butler, Crowder, Tyler Herro and Bam (Crowder, Bam, Dragic played 9.4 4Q minutes together).
Bucks Rotation Notes: Giannis played 22 minutes in the second half (one two-minute sub in 3Q, previous high in playoff was 18, 22 minutes once in the regular season), 16.5 minutes of Giannis without a C (12.6 with Marvin Williams), Frank Mason checked in ahead of Donte DiVincenzo.
*Miami did an exceptional job at taking away Giannis’ interior game. He had just one dunk and four layup attempts, which is down from the 7.6 layups and 4.4 dunks per game he had in the Magic series. Also, down from 7.3 layups per game in the regular season and 3.3 dunks, which is even more impressive considering GA played 37 minutes on Monday (30.4 in regular season). Jae Crowder was the main guy on Giannis while Bam and Butler also saw a handful of possessions on him. Miami basically put 1.5 guys on him whenever they could with a lot of over-helping from Bam (more on that below and how it helped Brook). Perhaps the best part of the Heat defense was taking away transition points. He only had one attempt in transition (his dunk, the scorers gave him a three as a “fast break” point, technically), and he only had one trip to the line with under eight seconds off the shot clock. Giannis led the league by far in transition points at 8.3 per game, and so far in the playoffs he’s at just 5.8 per game despite more playing time. Part of that was due to just eight deflections from the Bucks. Giannis was also dominating on the glass as the best rebounder in the bubble by far, but he ran into some bad luck. He only had 14 rebound chances in Game 1 and he was way down for the majority of Game 1, so expect him to be better there, too. As for his offense, it might be a tough series if the Heat stick to the plan, which they absolutely should. Giannis doesn’t have a wide variety of advantages to his offensive game, so taking away some of those isn’t too difficult with the right personnel like Miami has. Lastly on Giannis, you’ve probably heard the talk of him not guarding Jimmy, and chances are he won’t too much in this game.
*Khris Middleton busted out of a slump after somehow making just two shots in the paint in the whole Magic series, including just going 1-of-9 on drives in those five games (he had four paint buckets in the first half on Monday). That’s down from 22.2 per game in the Magic series despite five minutes more per game in that series. The Heat seemed to be OK with letting Middleton beat them, allowing a whopping 19 uncontested shots (five contested). Middleton’s off-ball game was key with 75% of his makes coming off an assist, which is way up from the 47.8% in the season and 45.3% in the Magic series. He’ll definitely benefit from Miami’s defensive coverage.
*Another player who benefited from open looks was Goran Dragic. He has 12 of his 15 shots come uncontested in Game 1, and he made them count at a 75.0 eFG%. He probably won’t get so many easy shots today, but he’s still a great play.
*Miami’s screen game was deadly with 38 points off screen assists in Game 1 (Jazz led in regular season at 28.8, someone tell Rudy Gobert to make him feel better) with Bam accounting for seven of the 16 screen assists. Bam was heavily involved in initiating offense in the halfcourt with 48 frontcourt touches and 12 touches at the elbow. Bam had some bad luck with a missed uncontested dunk, a missed putback dunk, and another really clean look after backing down Giannis (two other missed contested layups for 3-of-8 from the restricted area). Even with all his effort on the defensive end and a ton of movement, I’d expect a better outing from him offensively.
*As expected, Brook Lopez got some clean looks. Unofficially (me just looking at his shots), Brook had four shots with some clear over-helping from Bam, a few of them weren’t as a result of helping, and one was a great PNR play with Khris Middleton (some were just a frenzy on loose balls). It’s very clear Spo will trade off GA possessions for Brook Lopez ones, so expect another opportunity for Brook. He was also really good on D against Bam for the most part, so he’s earned playing time.
*Jimmy is healthy and it showed. After some tape was on his shoulder in the first round, he didn’t have tape on it in Game 1 and you could just see he was more comfortable using both arms. Jimmy was extraordinarily inefficient on drives in the first round, but that changed in Game 1. Jimmy scored 17 points on 20 drives in Game 1, which is more than the 14 points off drives he scored in the entire Pacers series (52 total drives). Milwaukee’s interior defense was no match for Jimmy with nine shots at the rim (made five), and he crushed at the line with 13 attempts against a team that is usually stingy on giving up FTA. It really shouldn’t have been this easy for him, but he made the Bucks’ vaunted interior defense look like Bambi slipping on ice.
*Coach Erik Spoelstra told Kendrick Nunn that the rookie would be a rotation player in this one. I’ll admit I had a big miss on Kelly Olynyk, who had no overlap with Bam despite being the first sub for the Heat. Foul trouble was a small factor, but it was bad. It was a decent surprise that the Heat went smaller in this round, but it really just comes down to Spo wanting his guys in better position to defend laterally than vertically. Crowder also was a bigger piece in closing over Andre Iguodala. That makes sense with Crowder on Giannis so much, and Crowder adds more spacing on the offensive side. Plus, Spo giving Tyler Herro key minutes late speaks volumes on how much he trusts him right now. Looking to Game 2, we should have fairly similar expectations after we found out how much Spo trusts Herro, who has been very clutch in his young career. Perhaps the only question we don’t have is if Jae’s 12-minute fourth was because Spo likes him here or because of Iggy foul trouble. Crowder was excellent, so I’d lean on him being a big part of the game plan.
*On Eric Bledsoe, we’re pretty much in the dark here. In Game 1, we didn’t really have any idea what was up until the starting lineup populated for the beat writers, and the Bucks didn’t officially rule him out until after the tip. Per the broadcast, the Bucks were taking a “hamstring awareness” approach on Bledsoe, so yeah. On Monday, coach Mike Budenholzer said Bledsoe was able to go through 15 minutes of practice, but basically he’s a game-time decision today. It’s not really a great matchup for Bledsoe and you’d almost prefer Hill’s spacing to Bledsoe’s pace and defense. After Hill, it’ll be tough to use Mason or Donte DiVincenzo.
*Just a quick point from Game 2 of the last series for Miami: Malcolm Brogdon said that the Heat were basically forcing shots to Duncan Robinson after Robinson’s quiet Game 1. I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s part of the early game plan.
Matchup Helps: Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton, Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic
Matchup Hurts: Giannis Antetokounmpo (still could certainly bust out, especially after big minutes), Kelly Olynyk
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets (-5.5), 9:00 pm ET
Team totals: Thunder 105.5, Rockets 111
Injury News: Luc Mbah a Moute (knee) is out.
Thunder Expected Starters: Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams
Rockets Expected Starters: Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Eric Gordon, Robert Covington, P.J. Tucker
Thunder Rotation Notes: Dort at just 5.9 minutes in first half (three fouls) and 14.2 in the second half.
Rockets Rotation Notes: Lord Robert Covington is the Lord of the manor once again, Jeff Green is going to need foul trouble to be reliable.
*Westbrook cut into James Harden’s touch time with more than a minute off his pace from the first five games. In the two games with Westbrook, Harden had a higher usage rate with him on the court than without him for Game 5, but that flipped in Game 6 (29.3 with, 37.5 without). Harden was still really productive with his touches, and he crushed again off drives with a playoff-best 83.3 TS% off his 111 drives. Harden has also really found his jumper in the last two at a 62.0 eFG%, and it’s not even like he’s open with zero wide-open attempts. After taking a loss that was due mostly to Westbrook, it should be a Harden takeover.
*Oh, SGA. Nobody tilts the ETR NBA Slack quite like him. I’ve talked a lot about drives for SGA and he’s in the top five for total drives in the playoffs (Jamal Murray will likely pass him to make him sixth), but lately he’s not even shooting them. He’s down to just 0.3 true shooting attempts (TSA, not the airport people) per drive in this series, which puts him in the bottom five among the top 50 drivers in the bubble. That’s pretty close to half of his 0.54 TSA per drive on the season, and it doesn’t help he’s not making them either. He really should be in a better spot against Eric Gordon instead of Danuel House, and SGA is somehow 2-of-10 on catch-and-shoot treys. Being in such a great spot against a team that has been vulnerable to drivers makes this situation even more tilting.
*The Thunder starters weren’t terrible in Game 6 at a -8.3 net rating in 11 minutes, but coach Billy Donovan went straight to Dennis Schroder after the starters checked out with all but one minute off the court from when he checked in for each half.
*Chris Paul looks like he’s headed for huge minutes again today after 40 in Game 6. His 22 TSA in Game 6 is the most he’s had in the bubble. The way he gets shots is almost unguardable and the Rockets can’t trap him because he has a basketball super brain and can find the open guy. Point Gawd for life.
Matchup Helps: James Harden, Chris Paul, Dennis Schroder, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (*crosses fingers again*)
Matchup Hurts: Danilo Gallinari, Russell Westbrook
