I play roughly 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This was a polar opposite of last week. I thought the cash pool was really weak and included some sneaky low floors. Most players on the slate were overpriced, creating salary crunch.
MY MUST PLAYS
* I’m not really sure how Taysom Hill ended up just $5600. Quarterbacks capable for running for 100 yards in a game have incredible floor/ceiling combos, regardless of passing ability. Taysom’s outrageously low price was accentuated by the matchup with the Jets, who came into the week 32nd in yards per play allowed and 25th in opponent plays per game.
* The Chargers boast one of the NFL’s highest pass rates and play at an extremely quick pace. I didn’t expect that to change just because Keenan Allen (COVID) was out. So when we remove Keenan’s absurd 10.3 targets per game, there is a ton to go around. Most importantly, I thought there would be a legit role change for Big Mike Williams, who wouldn’t just run vertical streakers. Williams was priced at $6000 as if Keenan was playing.
* I didn’t think Antonio Gibson was as strong as he was in Week 13, when he was $300 cheaper and facing the Raiders. Still, with JD McKissic (concussion) out again we could project a really strong pass-game role for Gibson. Despite the tough matchup, I was never passing on the talent in a 3-down plus goal-line role here.
MY WANT PLAYS
* The running back position was pretty strong with Leonard Fournette, Alvin Kamara, and Austin Ekeler in excellent spots up top. But with both Kenyan Drake (ankle) and Jalen Richard (COVID), Josh Jacobs had a true 3-down plus goal-line role. That raised his floor in a big way, because he couldn’t get scripted out. Jacobs was close to a must at $6200, but the strength of the position prevented that.
* Speaking of near-musts, I really liked the spot for Austin Hooper. The Browns have a very high tight end target rate but were down both David Njoku and Harrison Bryant. They also have nothing at wide receiver. So even though Hooper wasn’t “free” at $3400 and he can’t do much after the catch, I thought his target floor was really high. I was always punting at tight end in the slate context, and didn’t want a Jaguar (James O’Shaughnessy) or a dad-runner (Jared Cook) or an exotic tiger-tamer (Brock Wright).
* I wanted exposure to the slate’s best game environment in BUF-TB. I played around with teams that had Lenny Fournette and/or Stef Diggs. In the end, I felt best about Chris Godwin (shout out Penn State) because his target projection at $7100 wasn’t all that different than Diggs’ at $8100 or Tyreek Hill’s at $8500. He clearly has serious rapport with Tom Brady.
* After the Tony Pollard news hit, I looked at a 2v2 of Ezekiel Elliott and Stef Diggs instead of Austin Ekeler and Chris Godwin. But the matchup in Washington and my preference for Godwin made me lean to the Ekeler side. Ekeler benefitted a little from the Keenan Allen absence and he scores fantasy points in the way that yields a huge ceiling – goal-line and pass-catching. Note that I did consider Alvin Kamara over Ekeler – with Mark Ingram out I thought that was a coin flip.
* I obviously didn’t want to play Jamison Crowder, even with Corey Davis and Elijah Moore out. But to get the construction I wanted, I’d have to play one of Jeff Wilson or Crowder. There was so much more opportunity cost at RB, and Deebo Samuel being active lowered Wilson’s carry projection. So I swallowed my pride and clicked Crowder in a game I thought Zach Wilson could throw it 40 times and the Saints are best attacked both through the air and in the slot.
* There weren’t any viable stone punts at D/ST this week. I wasn’t opposed to playing something like the Texans at $2400, but I preferred to get one of the Browns ($2700), Panthers ($2800) or Seahawks ($3100). The Browns were the one that fit this lineup as I didn’t have any money leftover.
Week 14 Results
Results certainly would have been better if Austin Ekeler (ankle) didn’t go down in the third quarter. But I definitely made some mistakes. While I did consider coming down to Leonard Fournette to get up to Stef Diggs, I never really looked at using that extra money to find a way off Jamison Crowder. I also think going Alvin Kamara over Ekeler was definitely a way to save another $400 — Kamara’s touch floor/ceiling was massive with Mark Ingram out. Still, the conviction I had on Austin Hooper and Chris Godwin allowed a salvageable week.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 124.86 points, won 70.5% of head-to-heads
Week 2: 92.88 points, won 5.7% of head-to-heads
Week 3: 151.52 points, won 63.8% of head-to-heads
Week 4: 104.92 points, won 8.1% of head-to-heads
Week 5: 187.08 points, won 82.7% of head-to-heads
Week 6: 147.98 points, won 82.3% of head-to-heads
Week 7: 163.38 points, won 88.1% of head-to-heads
Week 8: 135.62 points, won 37.0% of head-to-heads
Week 9: 127.54 points, won 81.4% of head-to-heads
Week 10: 152.74 points, won 90.0% of head-to-heads
Week 11: 109.02 points, won 55.3% of head-to-heads
Week 12: 117.32 points, won 80.1% of head-to-heads
Week 13: 180.08 points, won 86.9% of head-to-heads
Week 14: 127.30 points, won 51.4% of head-to-heads
