Owner/GM Jerry Jones
HC Mike McCarthy
OC Kellen Moore
DC Dan Quinn
Projected Starting Lineup
QB Dak Prescott
RB Ezekiel Elliott
WR1 CeeDee Lamb
WR2 Michael Gallup
WR3 James Washington
TE Dalton Schultz
LT Tyron Smith
LG Tyler Smith
C Tyler Biadasz
RG Zack Martin
RT Terence Steele
Passing Game Overview
Dak Prescott successfully returned from 2020’s compound ankle fracture and dislocation last season, starting 16-of-17 contests while netting career bests in completion rate (69%), TD passes (37), and TD Rate (6.2%). Presumably due to his recovery, Prescott’s rushing production fell off. He still finished as fantasy’s overall QB9. Dak has publicly promised to run more this year, while he stands to benefit from schematic continuity with OC Kellen Moore returning; the Cowboys have ranked top six in scoring in two of Moore’s three seasons as coordinator. I’m confidently ranking Dak as a top-eight QB1 this year.
CeeDee Lamb took a meaningful second-year step in 2021, finishing 20th among NFL wide receivers in catches (79) and 14th in yards (1,102) despite ceding significant target shares to Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and Cedrick Wilson. Cooper (Browns) and Wilson (Dolphins) have exited Dallas, while Gallup will certainly miss early-season time after tearing his ACL last Week 17. As an age-23 wideout in a proven prolific passing offense, Lamb profiles as a high-floor, high-upside WR1. I’m bullish enough on Lamb to rank him ahead of aging Davante Adams and Deebo Samuel, who faces major offensive transition.
Michael Gallup landed a five-year, $57.5 million deal from Dallas in March, even after tearing his ACL last Week 17. Gallup is an obvious candidate for reserve/PUP — which would cost him the season’s first month — and has been a frustrating producer even when healthy, managing 61 yards or fewer in 17 of his last 20 games. I understand drafting Gallup in best ball, but I can’t support him as a season-long pick.
Dalton Schultz was 2021’s top breakout tight end, finishing as fantasy’s TE4 behind only Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, and George Kittle in PPR scoring. A reliable possession receiver, red-zone force, and useful blocker, Schultz earned a robust 81% snap share and 104 targets, sixth most among tight ends. The departures of Cooper, Wilson, and Blake Jarwin lessen Schultz’s target competition, while Dallas assigned Schultz a $10.9 million franchise tender and made zero meaningful tight end additions. Among others, I’m drafting Schultz ahead of T.J. Hockenson, Dawson Knox, Dallas Goedert, and Zach Ertz.
James Washington, Jalen Tolbert, and Noah Brown will vie for snaps in Gallup’s absence and three-wide sets when Gallup returns. Ex-Steeler Washington accepted a one-year, $1.2 million deal from Dallas after failing in four seasons with Pittsburgh to carve out a consistent role. Including playoffs, Washington has reached 100 yards in 1-of-62 career games. … The Cowboys drafted Tolbert 88th overall after he earned 2021 Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year. At the very least, Tolbert is an intriguing dynasty bet. At 6-foot-1, 194, Tolbert blazed 4.49 at the Combine after dominating for two years at South Alabama. … Brown seems to be a coaches’ pet; he’s hung around despite failing to produce in college or the NFL.
Running Game Overview
Ezekiel Elliott has regressed into a grinding power back entering his age-27 campaign, having in 2021 set career lows in yards per target (4.4) and yards per catch (6.1) and gained over 10 yards on just 16 of his 237 carries (7%). Zeke’s 6.8% broken tackle rate (Sports Info Solutions) severely underwhelmed, while his 25.4 Elusive Rating (Pro Football Focus) registered a whopping 48 points below teammate Tony Pollard’s (73.4). Publicly, the Cowboys attributed Zeke’s struggles to a PCL injury and claim he’s now in the “best shape of his life”. Support for Elliott remains strong within Jerry Jones’ front office driven by financial commitments, but at some point, the coaches will have to acknowledge Pollard’s all-around superiority. Even in Round 3 of season-long drafts, I’m never thrilled pulling the trigger on Zeke.
Tony Pollard vastly outproduced Zeke in both the run and pass games in 2021, averaging 7.3 yards per target and 8.6 yards per catch while ripping off 17 runs of over 10 yards on 130 carries (13%). Pollard’s broken tackle rate was 10.8% compared to Elliott’s 6.8%. It likely won’t happen before October, but no one should be surprised if this is the season the Cowboys finally turn their lead-back role over to Pollard. A believer in both his floor and ceiling, I’m aggressively drafting Pollard in the middle rounds this year.
2022 Win Total
As of June 30, Dallas’ Win Total at DraftKings Sportsbook was 10.0 (-110). Albeit bounced in the first round of the playoffs by San Francisco, last year’s Cowboys finished 12-5 with a modest five one-score wins and dominant +172 point differential, second best in football. On defense, they did benefit massively from an extremely fortunate turnover rate. But Dak Prescott’s health is in a better place this year, while Mike McCarthy’s team drew 2022’s 10th-softest schedule according to Sharp Football. I’m not bullish either way on the Cowboys being priced at 10 victories but would lean over if forced to pick.
