How to Draft From Picks 9-12 in 2023 Fantasy Football

There are mere weeks until the NFL regular season kicks off. That means it’s fantasy draft season — and we’re here to get you ready to crush your league. Your draft strategy, of course, depends on what pick you have. Today, we’ll complete our series by detailing how we think you should draft if you have a late pick in the first round (1.09-1.12). Let’s get to it.

For the guide on how to pick from Picks 1.01-1.04, click here.

For 1.05-1.08, click here.

ROUNDS 1 AND 2 STRATEGY

You will undoubtedly have strong options at the 1-2 turn, but it’s difficult to predict which players will be there since there’s not really a consensus in the top eight this year. Still, let’s detail some of the options that typically find themselves drafted in this range of the draft.

Tyreek Hill and Bijan Robinson likely won’t make it until the end of the first round — we even mentioned them as options as early as the fourth overall pick — but they’re good picks if available. In games with Tua Tagovailoa, Hill’s 17.8 half-PPR points-per-game average trailed only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson. He had the third-highest target share in the league and returns to a Mike McDaniel scheme that specializes in getting the ball into playmakers’ hands in space. Robinson has yet to play an NFL regular-season snap, but he’s the best running back prospect in years, sporting a dual-threat skill set matched by maybe a handful of RBs in the league. Atlanta had the second-lowest Pass Rate Over Expectation (-13.1%) of any team in the last decade again and looks like they’re going to run back the run-heavy approach after selecting Robinson eighth overall. Cooper Kupp is another worthwhile shout who may not last until picks 9-12, as he led all WRs in PPG two years ago with nearly 26 and trailed only Jefferson (22.6 vs. 22.4) before getting injured last season. The Rams look like one of the worst teams in the league on paper and could be in full-on tank mode by the fantasy playoffs, but Kupp’s target share is too much to pass up near the end of Round 1.

If you want a TE, Travis Kelce is once again the TE1 heading into this season, as he’s finished atop the position in six of the past seven seasons. The Chiefs added very little target competition this offseason, which puts Kelce in line for a mid-20s target share from one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. Kelce turns 34 years old in October, but he’s shown no signs of slowing down and his track record speaks for itself at this point.

Stefon Diggs is coming off a WR5 PPG season and has yet to finish lower than WR9 in half-PPR points per game in his three seasons in Buffalo. His target share increased from 24.4% to 26.4% last season, and the Bills’ only major addition to their receiving corps is first-round rookie TE Dalton Kincaid. Diggs is the clear alpha for one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He’s a high-floor, high-ceiling option at the end of Round 1.

Those four are unlikely to make it out of Round 1, and we even mentioned them in our article on 1.05-1.08 strategy. After that, there’s a big cluster of players who are all worthwhile picks at the end of Round 1, but the order in which we rank them depends pretty heavily on league format. We’ll run through each of them and mention whether they are most valuable in standard, half PPR, or full PPR.

In standard leagues, you can start to consider Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry with these picks. Both players could have 300+ carries if they remain healthy, and they are the two favorites to lead the NFL in rushing yards. Chubb had just 37 targets in 2022, but Kareem Hunt also led the backfield in target share at 8.1% (Chubb’s target share was 6.9%). With Hunt out of town, the Browns could use Chubb more in passing situations, which would unlock a truly elite ceiling. Regardless, Chubb is arguably the best pure runner in the NFL — he’s never recorded fewer than 5.0 yards per carry in a single season — and he should be among the league leaders in carries too. That’s a recipe for success in standard leagues, and, even in PPR leagues, you can make an argument for him in early Round 2. Henry has age concerns (he’s now 29 years old) and the Titans’ offensive line is among the worst in the NFL on paper, but he has run for at least 1,500 yards in three of the past four seasons. His 41 targets in 2022 were 10 higher than his previous career high, offering a glimpse of the multi-dimensional production that he had lacked in previous campaigns. RBs are kind in standard leagues, and Chubb and Henry are worth considering in Round 1 if you don’t get any points per reception. Even in leagues that do offer a receiving bonus, Chubb is a good option in early Round 2.