The Bills saw the Davante Adams news and said we’ll load up at WR, too — and they wasted no time, as it was only hours before an Amari Cooper acquisition deal was finalized. Cooper will immediately be the WR1 in Buffalo, a much-needed lift to an offense that was previously dependent on Khalil Shakir as its primary wide receiver. Let’s discuss what this deal means for fantasy purposes:
AMARI COOPER
- Cooper has 53 targets in six games but is only averaging a paltry 4.7 yards per target. He is now 30 years old, so there’s some chance he’s taken a step back, but Cooper also was playing with the worst quarterback in football and, at times, looked completely uninterested in playing in Cleveland. This trade gives him a fresh start with an elite QB, so we’ll find out relatively quickly if he’s still the same talent.
- Shakir has been impressive. Dalton Kincaid remains a high-volume option underneath. But Cooper has a straightforward path to being Josh Allen‘s primary pass catcher. This launches him way up in our rest-of-season rankings into WR2 territory. We’ll see how quickly he can learn the playbook, but once he’s up to speed, he’s back into must-start territory for fantasy purposes.
- The Bills do have a -4.2% Pass Rate Over Expectation in 2024 and Joe Brady strongly adjusts his game plan based on the opponent. Allen has somehow not attempted more than 30 passes in a game this year. Still, the addition of Cooper could change how this offense operates, and regardless, Cooper getting a 20+% target share from Josh Allen is just incredibly valuable.
OTHER BILLS PASS CATCHERS
- Shakir’s 11.9 yards-per-target average this season is on par with his career average. That’s an absolutely ridiculous figure that’s almost certain to regress, but he still projects as one of the most efficient receivers in football. The addition of Cooper is a pretty crushing blow for his volume — he has a 16.3% target share this year, so he was already relying on absurd efficiency — but he still has spot-start allure, especially once his ankle fully recovers.
- Keon Coleman‘s path to Year 1 effectiveness just got a lot muddier. Coleman has already struggled so far and now may be off the field in 3-WR sets if the Bills prefer Mack Hollins‘ consistency (which seems possible, perhaps even likely?). He’s still an early second-round WR paired with an elite QB, so it’s not completely over, but it’s hard to see him making an impact in Year 1. It’s probably mostly over for Coleman in 2024 barring an injury to those above him on the depth chart.
- Kincaid will see a drop in volume with the added target competition but remains a mid- to low-end TE1.
BROWNS PASS CATCHERS
- Cooper vacates a 26.5% target share in Cleveland. Jerry Jeudy (18% share) and Elijah Moore (11.5%) are now the WR1 and WR2, respectively, for the Browns, but it’s pretty hard to get excited about any of these guys as long as Deshaun Watson remains QB1. I’m honestly fascinated by the Watson situation; he has legitimately been the worst QB in the league by a mile this year, yet the team refuses to bench him. Kevin Stefanski is a former Coach of the Year who was generally held in high regard entering the season (and the offense looked good under Joe Flacco last year still), which leads me to think there must be a mandate from ownership to start Watson. I’m curious how long that remains in place — how many more losses can they endure before they go to Jameis Winston? I truly have no idea how to answer that question, but it’s basically the key to Jeudy, Moore, and David Njoku‘s fantasy value. From a pure volume perspective, Jeudy is now in line for a >20% target share weekly and makes for a low-end PPR flex option on volume alone. Moore is likely still a bench asset for now. Cedric Tillman will join Jeudy/Moore in 3-WR sets but hasn’t proven capable of earning targets at a high level yet (0.13 TPRR last year, 0.09 this year).
- Njoku’s snaps/routes haven’t fully returned to normal pre-injury levels, but he figures to be there soon, and he’s now the alpha dog in this offense. Same thing with Jeudy/Moore: Njoku needs Winston to start to achieve a real high-end season, but he is certainly still a really good fantasy TE even with Watson starting since he should see a 22+% target share. Njoku can legitimately challenge Travis Kelce and Brock Bowers for the positional leader in target share now, but his efficiency will likely lag behind both of them and keep him in the mid-range TE1 tier.
