There are a number of decision points this week related to plays I have suggested throughout the year in this column. I’ve received a number of questions about those plays, so I decided to write an off-week column to answer those questions. If you want to further discuss any of these plays, feel free to reach out to me via Twitter @RyanReynoldsNFL or via email [email protected]. My offseason study is the foundation for my awards process, and that can be found here.
The MVP Race
Patrick Mahomes (-200 DraftKings) vs Aaron Rodgers (+200 MGM): In last week’s awards column I suggested using Rodgers as a hedge for those, like myself, with a Mahomes MVP position. As described last week, that Rodgers play doubled as having a very real chance of being profitable on its own even if Mahomes wins the MVP. Rodgers was +500 last week, and he’s as expensive as +150 right now among the sites I use for this column. In Week 15, Mahomes visits New Orleans as a 3-point road favorite, which would be an even more dangerous game if Drew Brees was set to return. Rodgers, on the other hand, is an 8-point home favorite over the Panthers in Week 15.
Since Rodgers leads the league in touchdown passes, QBR, and rating while his Packers are 10-3, I will be holding my Rodgers hedge for at least one more week. My reasoning is that the Chiefs can realistically lose in New Orleans this week, the Packers are likely to take care of business against the Panthers at home, and Rodgers could arguably already be the favorite in this race. Further, the narrative of the Packers drafting quarterback Jordan Love in the first round this year can do nothing but help Rodgers’ MVP case as we head down the stretch. What to do beyond Week 15 with both of these players will be discussed next week, and that stance will be primarily driven by how the Chiefs at Saints matchup unfolds. But right now, this race is very much neck-and-neck as one could make a very strong case for either Mahomes or Rodgers to be on top.
Still not eliminated: Josh Allen.
Coach of the Year
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