Dynasty Outlook
March 9
C.J. Stroud is our QB1 for rookie drafts and checks in as QB11 in our overall dynasty ranks. He is the QB prospect with the least number of questions entering the draft given that he possesses prototypical size and has been an efficient passer. However, we have to question if he is a “shooter” — as Daniel Jeremiah puts it — passing to elite weapons, or someone who can create on his own. If he is simply the former, then it severely limits his ceiling. If Stroud can continue to build off of what we saw in the Georgia game with his legs, then he will have a high-end ceiling.
Profile Summary
Stroud looks the part of a top-overall QB and should land somewhere in the top four of the NFL Draft. He has been a tremendously efficient passer — one of the best we’ve seen in college football since 2000 — but doesn’t run much at all. The best glimpse of that we got was in the college football playoff against Georgia, where Stroud had multiple positive rushing plays against a defense loaded with NFL talent. He will need to do that more in order to reach his ceiling. The scouts agree that he needs to be more of a creator.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/22) — 21.3
Experience — 3 years
By the Numbers
Stroud is a two-year starter at one of the most decorated programs in the country. His cumulative numbers are pretty outrageous: 69% completion rate, 9.8 yards per attempt, and an 85/12 TD/INT ratio. His QB efficiency rating was 182.4. Stroud finds himself in pretty elite company for passers with 700 or more attempts and an efficiency rating of at least 170:
Hendon Hooker
Joe Burrow
Baker Mayfield
Marcus Mariota
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
That’s three first-overall draft selections, one second-overall draft selection, a fellow (25-year-old) prospect, and Tebow. Very strong company. Of course, Burrow is the result we aspire for results-wise, but this verifies Stroud as being a legit prospect.
Stroud has not used his legs much at all, generating a measly 136 rushing yards over his career (including sack yardage). In fact, the only other QB on the above list to have even less than 800 rushing yards was Bradford with 36. That absolutely needs to improve in order for Stroud to have a high-end fantasy ceiling.
One confounding factor in Stroud’s evaluation is the quality of his WRs. Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave were the two best rookie WRs in 2022 after playing with Stroud in 2021. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a likely first-round pick, and Marvin Harrison Jr. is widely considered to be the best wideout in the country. Emeka Egbuka might be the second best. Determining how much of Stroud’s production has to do with his talent versus delivering balls to amazing weapons will be a key piece of his evaluation.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein notes that Stroud has more upside on the ground than his stats would indicate:
Two-year starter from a program with a high-octane offense known for creating high-level production opportunities for its quarterbacks. Stroud’s accuracy stands out on tape. He’s able to lead receivers with good placement and make on-frame throws to targets on all areas of the field. The question now is how quickly he will acclimate outside of the Ohio State scheme. Stroud didn’t often attack defenses with his legs, but if he can become a more willing runner, he will be able to extend drives rather than feeling forced into more challenging decision-making situations. NFL teams will have to balance what they saw on tape from Stroud during the 2022 regular season against his great College Football Playoff semifinal performance, when he shined versus Georgia’s impressive collection of pro prospects. If he did it once, he can do it again, and grading the flashes for Stroud might make the most sense.
Daniel Jeremiah thinks Stroud can be successful from the pocket:
Stroud is a pure, natural thrower with outstanding production. He has the desired size, arm strength, and decision-making for the position. He isn’t a dynamic athlete in his setup, but he always throws off a firm/strong platform. He has a smooth delivery and throws a beautiful, tight ball. He can layer the ball over linebackers and under safeties. He puts a nice loft on deep balls, making life easy on his pass catchers. His biggest issues arise when he has to move/reset and deliver the ball, as this causes his accuracy to suffer. (The impressive College Football Playoff performance against Georgia is the notable exception in this department.) He is a build-up-speed runner when lanes open up for him to take off. Overall, Stroud is definitely more of a shooter than a scorer. He will have success, provided the pieces are in place in front of him and on the perimeter.
Dane Brugler believes Stroud’s upside is tied to how he grows as a creator:
An outstanding rhythm passer, especially from the pocket, C.J. Stroud is able to layer the football with outstanding touch and control. He played the game of his life against Georgia in the playoffs, showing improved comfort as an improviser. Stroud’s passing skills give him a solid floor as an NFL starter, but his development as a creator is what will ultimately determine his ceiling.
Draft Projection
Stroud currently has an expected draft position of 3.2 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Stroud second overall. He went fourth in Jeremiah’s most recent mock and was the top pick in Brugler’s most recent mock. Stroud appears to have cemented himself in the top four.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
QB comps are always going to give a fairly wide range, but the names here are not particularly inspiring. Many of these QBs have had their bright spots, but no long-term meaningful production. The best bets there as far as comps go are likely Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence, who had excellent 2022 seasons.
We also have some duplication with previous mentions. Mayfield was a raw statistical comp that shows up here, and Zierlein compared Stroud to Jared Goff, who was another first-overall pick and has been a starter for six-plus seasons.
It is also notable that very few of these players have produced much on the ground in the NFL. That is something the scouts have noted could potentially improve.
