We believe CFB player props are among the softest markets in the CFB betting menu. That doesn’t mean it’s easy — but it does mean we think we have a good chance to beat it. We are putting in all of the work each week on our CFB fantasy projections. Each week, we project how every player in every game on the DraftKings and FanDuel slates will fare. We do this using statistical models in tandem with a unique understanding of player usage, coaching tendencies, and matchups. This is part math, part football, and part gambling knowledge.
The goal of this product is to release higher-edge prop bets throughout the week and then release full-stat projections closer to game day.
Here is how we fared last season doing CFB player props at Establish The Run. Keep in mind we are balancing release times with market availability and are posting bets at more widely available books (typically bets are available on both FanDuel and Builder, not picking off stale lines on smaller books). Note that the won-lost dollar amount assumes betting to win $100 on each favored prop, and risking $100 on each underdog prop.
- Week 0: 2-0, +$200
- Week 1: 5-3, +$158
- Week 2: 12-10, +$57
- Week 3: 9-12, -$473
- Week 4: 6-8, -$303
- Week 5: 6-3, +$258
- Week 6: 5-5, -$73
- Week 7: 8-3, +$453
- Week 8: 8-3, +$458
- Week 9: 10-7, +$216
- Week 10: 13-6, +$616
- Week 11: 8-6, +$116
- Week 12: 16-9, +$548
- Week 13: 15-9, +$474
- Week 14: 11-9, $76
- Conf Champ: 6-2, +$372
- Bowls & Playoff: 26-16, +$848
Overall 2024-25 CFB Season: 166-111, +$4,001 — ROI: +12.65%
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WHO IS BEHIND THIS PRODUCT?
Full-stat player projections and prop releases are powered by Alex Hardin (@fearmyturtleDFS) and Sean Newsham (@psufans2).
WHAT IS IN THE PRODUCT?
- Player prop releases throughout the week in a dedicated Discord channel, prior to full-stat projection releases
- Full-stat projections for all players on slates covered on DraftKings (typically 25-35 games per week)
HOW MANY GAMES PER WEEK DOES THIS PRODUCT COVER?
All games used on DraftKings DFS slates will be included in the full-stat projection releases, which is typically 25-35 games per week except Week 0.
WHEN WILL PLAYER PROP RELEASES BE PROVIDED?
We will release player props periodically throughout the week, prior to full-stat projections being posted. Our goal is to provide subscribers prop releases which balance edges and betting limits. We do not release low-limit openers, but market dynamics may require us to release more plays than usual several days before game day to ensure we beat mid-week line moves.
HOW WILL PLAYER PROP RELEASES BE DELIVERED?
We will release player props in our subscriber-only Discord channel. We will do several test releases at the start of the season to ensure everyone’s notifications are working properly and allow for troubleshooting. Typically releases are provided in a two-pronged approach where a message with a notification will be posted to tell subscribers the exact time a play, or plays, will be posted. Then, the prop release will be posted at that specific time in the CFB Props Discord channel (without an additional notification).
HOW MANY PLAYS WILL BE RELEASED EACH WEEK?
This is impossible to predict with perfect accuracy, but we would guess somewhere around 15-20 plays per week on average. Additionally, there may be “unofficial” plays released within the Discord that are either not widely available or not considered as strong of plays that we normally release.
DO YOU GUARANTEE I WILL BE ABLE TO GET THE PROPS AT THE POSTED LINES?
No. In fact, we can guarantee it won’t be easy. Lines typically move within a few seconds to 30 seconds after we release a play. It is what it is. It is up to you to be ready, and be fast. It also helps to have a lot of “outs,” aka different sportsbooks to bet props at.
WHAT BOOKS WILL I NEED MONEY ON?
As many as possible is ideal, but that’s up to you. We will be looking at the offerings from any legal United States book that has a presence in a majority of legal states. The majority of our bets will be on FanDuel, and sometimes Caesar’s. Occasionally, BETMGM, ESPNBet, and others will be in play.
WHEN WILL FULL-STAT PROJECTIONS BE AVAILABLE EACH WEEK?
Full stats will be released for all games on DraftKings slates. For midweek game days, full stats will be released five hours before the first kickoff, or 2:00 p.m. ET, whichever is earlier. For Saturday games, full stats will be released on Fridays at 2:00 p.m. ET. These times are subject to change throughout the season.
DO YOU GUARANTEE I WILL WIN AT CFB PROPS?
Absolutely not. We’re going to do our best, but this is a competitive market and we make no guarantees.
HOW MUCH DOES IT COST?
Our Full-Stat Projections & Player Props college football product is $99.99 per week or $299.99 per month.
WHY IS THE PRODUCT SO EXPENSIVE?
We would rather keep a small community and cater to the customers willing to pay a premium price for quality in order to maintain the value of the subscription for customers.
WHY ARE YOU ONLY OFFERING WEEKLY AND MONTHLY SUBSCRIPTIONS?
The No. 1 complaint about prop products, historically, has been that it is hard to get the same lines we post because the sportsbooks quickly move the lines. This is a legitimate issue. However, there are countless customers who are able to get the lines.
If you’re taking a week off, traveling out of state, etc., you can cancel your subscription. With this setup, people only pay for what they use. And if the product is not for you for any reason, simply cancel whenever you want. We don’t want to be in a position where we are taking large payments upfront and people are unhappy with us, or even have the possibility for that perception to exist.
WILL I BE CHARGED A FULL PRICE FOR WEEK 0 SINCE THERE ARE ONLY FOUR GAMES?
No. If you purchase a weekly subscription before Week 0, you will not be renewed until after Week 1, which effectively gets you Week 0 games at no additional cost. If you purchase a monthly subscription before Week 0, you will not be renewed until after Week 4.
WILL PROPS FOR ALT MARKETS BE RELEASED AS PART OF THIS PRODUCT?
Yes. While we are focusing on main line props, we will occasionally release alt line bets. These will be tracked separately.
