Trades are for betas.
1. Bears – USC QB Caleb Williams
This pick has been official since Williams emerged from the womb. Ignore any ‘hero ball’ libel as Williams was forced to compensate for Lincoln Riley‘s inept defense, laying down for the nation’s fifth-most yards per play (7.1).
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2. Commanders – LSU QB Jayden Daniels
I capitulate. Daniels would reportedly prefer to play in Las Vegas but, unfortunately for him, it’s not his choice. Washington could additionally trade back into the first round for a hogmollie to keep Daniels upright.
Previously: North Carolina QB Drake Maye
3. Patriots – North Carolina QB Drake Maye
Maye, providing 11.2 carries and 43.6 rushing yards per game over his last two seasons with the Tar Heels, immediately sparks an offense that registered points on a league-worst 15.6% of their drives last year—the lowly Panthers, for example, scored on 20.3% of their possessions. (For what it’s worth, there have admittedly been rumblings in the twilight hour that New England is leaning towards Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy.)
Previously: LSU QB Jayden Daniels
4. Cardinals – Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
Jostling around for more picks with Paris Johnson Jr. still on the board is one thing. Moving back with MHJ available (and No. 27 already in hand) is an entirely different universe. The Cardinals are in dire need of an alpha across from 2023 third-rounder Michael Wilson and, in my opinion, are not fearless enough to pull the trigger on LSU WR Malik Nabers (whom GM Monti Ossenfort is infatuated with) over Harrison Jr.
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5. Chargers – Alabama OT J.C. Latham
Notre Dame’s Joe Alt may be the top left tackle available, but that very position is already manned by Rashawn Slater through 2025 (assuming the organization picks up his $19 million option). Latham, a 6-foot-6, 342-pound behemoth who will be 21 throughout his rookie year, is a much cleaner on-paper fit in Los Angeles.
Previously: Trade with Vikings for Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy
6. Giants – LSU WR Malik Nabers
The Giants have researched this class of quarterbacks extensively, but I don’t believe their board accommodates Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy. Settling for Nabers’ 98th-percentile athleticism is a terrific consolation with both Daniels and Maye gone.
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7. Titans – Notre Dame OT Joe Alt
Universally considered the top tackle on the board, Alt would immediately step in for Andre Dillard (Packers) from Week 1. Only the Bears (45.7%) and Giants (43.1%) permitted pressure at a higher rate than Tennessee (42.6%) last year.
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8. Falcons – Texas DT Byron Murphy
Ignore 31-year-old David Onyemata‘s presence up the gut as first-year HC Raheem Morris and DC Jimmy Lake rebuild their hybrid 3-4/4-3 scheme from the line of scrimmage. Murphy, an elite athlete with salivating strength, has reportedly been clocked at 18 MPH on the GPS (at 305 pounds).
Previously: Washington WR Rome Odunze
9. Bears – Washington WR Rome Odunze
GM Ryan Poles has a counterpunch ready for anything thrown at him including Murphy (taken in this instance just one pick before) and Odunze being off the board. If the Jets can’t maneuver higher than No. 10, however, Odunze will undoubtedly be locked into three-wide sets with D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen.
Previously: Florida State EDGE Jared Verse
10. Jets – Georgia TE Brock Bowers
New York could use a lot of work on their O-Line beyond this season; John Simpson can be cut to save $2.8 million in 2025, RT Morgan Moses is a pending unrestricted free agent, and veteran LT Tyron Smith last played a full season in 2015. But if GM Joe Douglas prefers to prioritize Aaron Rodgers’ short-term window, Bowers takes precedence.
Previously: Washington T/G Troy Fautanu
11. Vikings – Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy
Assuming the Patriots allow McCarhty to slide, Minnesota and Denver would only be competing with each other for his services. The Vikings could then stay put and (hopefully) have an option for the future.
Previously: Oregon State OT Taliese Fuaga
12. Broncos – UCLA EDGE Laiatu Latu
With only one more pick (No. 76 overall) in the next two rounds, HC Sean Payton may feel compelled to force Oregon QB Bo Nix‘s name on this card; Broncos +110 to land him, removing him from being their first choice, is the best way to play it. Latu, however, is the priority after notching the Ted Hendricks and Lombardi Awards for the nation’s best end and defensive lineman. The 23-year-old mentioned that teams had not asked him about his medicals after he was forced to retire with a neck injury in 2021.
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13. Raiders – Oregon State OT Taliese Fuaga
A 6-foot-6, 324-pound ass-kicker who solely played right tackle with the Beavers, Fuaga would immediately start over “Thayer Munford Jr.” And unlike the Broncos, Al Davis‘ Raiders have the capital to move back into Night 1 for a QB of their choice.
Previously: Alabama CB Terrion Arnold
14. Saints – Penn State OT Olu Fashanu
Ryan Ramczyk‘s post-op setback coupled with Trevor Penning‘s inability to play professional football leaves the Saints with no choice but to add to their line. Fashanu dominated LT at the collegiate level (after blocking for Caleb Williams at that very position in high school), permitting zero sacks across 733 career pass-blocking snaps, per Dane Brugler’s The Beast.
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15. Colts – Toledo CB Quinyon Mitchell
GM Chris Ballard has infamously leaned on athletic testing as a threshold, most recently selecting nine (out of 12) players with an RAS of 9.00 or higher (and the lowest being 8.48). Mitchell, a 97th percentile athlete, not only fits the bill of Ballard’s blueprint but thrived in Cover 3, which Colts DC Gus Bradley schemed at the league’s highest rate (46.1%).
Previously: Georgia TE Brock Bowers
16. Seahawks – Washington T/G Troy Fautanu
With Charles Cross and Abe Lucas manning the edges, interior offensive line remains Seattle’s biggest weakness. Fautanu is not only viewed as a guard at the next level, he’s already familiar with former Washington (and newly minted Seattle) OC Ryan Grubb‘s scheme.
Previously: Duke G/C Graham Barton
17. Jaguars – Alabama CB Terrion Arnold
Arnold only played inside (on top of his primary duties along the boundary) in his final year because he was asked to shadow the SEC’s best into the slot. He’s an ideal fit in DC Ryan Nielsen‘s press coverage scheme from day one.
Previously: Alabama CB Kool-Aid McKinstry
18. Bengals – Illinois DT Jer’Zhan ‘Johnny’ Newton
Cincinnati opts to replace D.J. Reader in this scenario. Newton, the reigning Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, racked up the FBS’ second-most sacks (8) in his final season at Illinois.
Previously: Alabama OT J.C. Latham
19. Rams – Texas WR Xavier Worthy
Worthy (5’11, 165) offers an immediate upgrade over Tutu Atwell (5’9, 155), who’s entering the final year of his contract.
Previously: Texas DT Byron Murphy
20. Steelers – Duke G/C Graham Barton
The Steelers have more confidence in LT Dan Moore than anyone ever should. Barton lined up exclusively at left tackle for the Blue Devils the last three years but notably earned freshman All-America honors as the team’s starting center in 2020.
Previously: Georgia OT Amarius Mims
21. Dolphins – Alabama EDGE Dallas Turner
Whether it’s a cornerback to replace Xavien Howard, an interior lineman to fill the shoes of Christian Wilkins, or someone to keep Tua Tagovailoa upright in place of Robert Hunt, Miami will sit back and address a need when called on. With only one pick (No. 55) between Rounds 2-4, I’m expecting the Dolphins to trade back on night one.
Previously: Illinois DT Jer’Zhan ‘Johnny’ Newton
22. Eagles – Georgia OT Amarius Mims
GM Howie Roseman has long understood the importance of elite offensive line play and depth, beating the market to the punch. Mims, the most physically gifted offensive tackle in this class at 6-foot-8 and 340 pounds, can be groomed behind Lane Johnson in the interim.
Previously: Oklahoma OT Tyler Guyton
23. Vikings – Alabama CB Kool-Aid McKinstry
McKinstry underwent foot surgery in March, providing a discount for DC Brian Flores‘ blitzkrieg.
Previously: Trade with Chargers for Texas WR Adonai Mitchell
24. Cowboys – Oklahoma OT Tyler Guyton
With only 15 career starts under his belt, Guyton (6-foot-7, 327 pounds) can learn to play left tackle from the ground up to keep Tyler Smith on the interior.
Previously: Texas A&M LB Edgerrin Cooper
25. Packers – Iowa DB Cooper DeJean
Fully recovered from his broken leg suffered in November, DeJean blazed a 4.42 40-yard dash and posted a 38 1/2-inch vertical at his Pro Day. His unofficial 98th-percentile athleticism is similar to Jaire Alexander‘s (95th percentile) and Eric Stokes‘ (93rd percentile)—GM Brian Gutekunst‘s only first-round corners.
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26. Bucs – Oregon C/G Jackson Powers-Johnson
The Bucs are tasked with immediately replacing two formidable starters in C Ryan Jensen (retired) and CB Carlton Davis (Lions). The Rimington Trophy winner for the nation’s top center, JPJ additionally logged 430 snaps at RT and 64 at RG over the last three years.
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27. Cardinals – Florida State EDGE Jared Verse
With a plethora of needs in both trenches, Ossenfort has the luxury of taking the best available player. Don’t be surprised if Arizona trades back into the early 20’s (rather than sitting on their hands here).
Previously: Alabama EDGE Dallas Turner
28. Bills – LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr.
It’s no secret Joe Brady‘s offense is getting an impact piece on Night 1. And much like how the organization leaped a handful of interested parties for Dalton Kincaid, the team could take matters into their own hands and force a move up the board for Thomas Jr. The 21-year-old’s medicals, however, likely leave him lingering around at this spot.
Previously: Texas WR Adonai Mitchell
29. Lions – Clemson CB Nate Wiggins
GM Brad Holmes missed out on Devon Witherspoon at No. 6 last year but responded here. Carlton Davis, acquired in exchange for a third-round pick, has one year left on his deal.
Previously: Toledo CB Quinyon Mitchell
30. Ravens – Penn State EDGE Chop Robinson
Baltimore remains in need of a pass rush behind All-Pro Justin Madubuike following the departure of Jadeveon Clowney to Carolina.
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31. 49ers – Missouri DL Darius Robinson
Depth is pressing in San Francisco after Chase Young, Javon Kinlaw, Randy Gregory, and Clelin Ferrell all exited stage left. Powerful yet smaller (285 pounds) in stature, Robinson can line up both over and inside opposing tackles.
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32. Chiefs – BYU OT Kingsley Suamataia
Kansas City can theoretically ease any cap restraint Patrick Mahomes‘ contract creates by being ahead of the market at other (lucrative) positions. Kingsley is adept at both tackle spots, logging 687 snaps on the right in 2022 and 644 at LT last year.
Previously: Texas WR Xavier Worthy
Missed the cut: Washington QB Michael Penix, Oregon QB Bo Nix, Texas WR Adonai Mitchell, Georgia WR Ladd McConkey, Arizona OT Jordan Morgan, Washington EDGE Bralen Trice, West Virginia G/C Zach Frazier, Florida State WR Keon Coleman, Oregon WR Troy Franklin, Missouri CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
