You don’t have to play cash games to understand why it’s important to grasp them. Players we consider for cash are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and feature a relatively tight range of outcomes.
In other words, these are the best plays on the board once price, slate context, and positional depth are accounted for. Those sound like pretty good options for GPPs as well.
The optimal GPP lineup will mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, our ACO (average cumulative ownership) should stay reasonably low. Please read this article and watch this episode of the podcast for more on large-field tournament strategy.
For more tournament content, check out our projections, Sam Brott’s GPP Leverage Article, and Saturday’s Establish The Million show with Drew Dinkmeyer and Mike Leone.
With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: median projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations”.
They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for.
QUARTERBACK
Caleb Williams ($5,300 DK, $7,200 FD) – Williams only topped five carries once with Shane Waldron as the offensive coordinator; he’s had six-plus twice in two games with Thomas Brown calling the shots. With the Bears as massive underdogs against a red-hot Lions offense, Williams will have plenty of dropbacks on Turkey Day, and he just threw for 341 yards and two TDs against a fierce Vikings defense.
RUNNING BACK
Rico Dowdle ($5,500 DK, $6,100 FD) – The Cowboys showed their cards in neutral game script last week, giving Dowdle 19 carries to Ezekiel Elliott‘s three in a tight game against Washington. With a close spread in another divisional game, there’s no reason to expect the Cowboys to change their plans at RB, so Dowdle should get all of the work he can handle once again, and it makes sense for the Cowboys to lean on their ground game with Cooper Rush at QB.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,500 DK, $8,400 FD) – Teams have been running against Chicago all season, and David Montgomery got banged up in the Lions’ Week 12 win and had a short week to recover. While all indications are that Montgomery will be out there (and may very well be at 100%), Gibbs still projects for at worst a 50/50 split in a game where Detroit is a double-digit home favorite against a run-funnel defense. Gibbs has multi-TD upside in this spot.
WIDE RECEIVER
Dontayvion Wicks ($4,200 DK, $5,400 FD) – With Romeo Doubs set to miss, Wicks will step into an every-down role on the outside for Green Bay. While the second-year pro disappointed earlier in the year when called upon to play a bigger role, it’s worth mentioning that he had 27% and 24% target shares in two games as a starter. That didn’t translate into much fantasy production, but Wicks has been a legitimately elite target earner throughout this short career and looks poised for big volume again on Thursday.
CeeDee Lamb ($7,300 DK, $8,600 FD) – Lamb has at least a 34% target share in two of Rush’s three starts, and the star WR is in line for a monstrous role again with Jake Ferguson set to miss his second consecutive game. Brandin Cooks may be back, but he hasn’t shown the ability to command a huge target share in Dallas, so that shouldn’t have too much of an impact on Lamb’s role.
Keenan Allen ($5,100 DK, $6,500 FD) – Allen has struggled with efficiency so far this year — 5.2 yards per target — but the role is undeniable. He has 23 targets in two games with Thomas Brown calling the shots and leads the Bears with a 24.9% target share on the season (3.5 percentage points clear of D.J. Moore). With Chicago likely to be in negative game script, Allen has real double-digit-target upside in this spot.
TIGHT END
Sam LaPorta ($4,100 DK, $5,700 FD) – After a slow start to the year, LaPorta has quietly put it together in recent games, earning a 21% target share over his past four games (including 23% and 17% shares in two games with Jameson Williams during that time). LaPorta is back in a voluminous role and serves as a perfect red-zone target for Jared Goff in a game where Detroit projects to score a lot of points.
Jonnu Smith ($4,300 DK, $6,300 FD) – Jonnu’s 22% target share over the past month leads all Dolphins pass catchers, as Miami has decided to make him a focal point of their passing game. While Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are bigger names, Smith simply keeps out-targeting them, and his 8.5 yards-per-target average and after-the-catch ability gives Miami no reason to move away from him.
DEFENSE
Dallas Cowboys ($3,100 DK, $4,100 FD) – The Cowboys get a makeshift Giants offensive line and mistake-prone Drew Lock at QB.
NFL Top Plays
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