DFS Top Plays: Thanksgiving

You don’t have to play cash games to understand why it’s important to grasp them. Players we consider for cash are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and feature a relatively tight range of outcomes.

In other words, these are the best plays on the board once price, slate context, and positional depth are accounted for. Those sound like pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, our ACO (average cumulative ownership) should stay reasonably low. Please read this article and watch this episode of the podcast for more on large-field tournament strategy.

For more tournament content, check out our projections, Sam Brott’s GPP Leverage Article, and Saturday’s Establish The Million show with Drew Dinkmeyer and Mike Leone.

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: median projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations”.

They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for.

QUARTERBACK

Caleb Williams ($5,300 DK, $7,200 FD) – Williams only topped five carries once with Shane Waldron as the offensive coordinator; he’s had six-plus twice in two games with Thomas Brown calling the shots. With the Bears as massive underdogs against a red-hot Lions offense, Williams will have plenty of dropbacks on Turkey Day, and he just threw for 341 yards and two TDs against a fierce Vikings defense.