WIDE RECEIVERS
The NFL is trending in the direction of favoring small receivers over big ones for a variety of reasons. Recency bias is one as plus-sized first-rounders Kevin White, DeVante Parker, Breshad Perriman, Josh Doctson, and Laquon Treadwell have all failed. With NFL teams playing more man coverage and pass rush getting home quicker, offensive designers have begun to favor twitchy receivers who create separation earlier in routes. Corners around the league have also gotten bigger with teams drafting in the Legion of Boom image. This shouldn’t necessarily impact our Dynasty projections, but it’s a development that helps explain the 2019 draft-day slides of numerous big-bodied wideouts and rise of the smaller guys.
1. Eagles WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (2.25)
Arcega-Whiteside’s landing spot disappointed in that he lacks immediate opportunity, but that could change quick. Nelson Agholor already has one foot out the door in his contract season, while DeSean Jackson is best deployed as a limited-snap role player going on age 33. 29-year-old Alshon Jeffery‘s contract is year to year after 2019. Arcega-Whiteside averaged 16.4 yards per catch with 28 TDs in three seasons at Stanford, then blazed 4.47/4.50 at 6-foot-2, 225 before the draft. He led the nation in contested-catch rate success as a 2018 junior and landed with one of the NFL’s most-aggressive tight-window passers in Carson Wentz.
2. Patriots WR N’Keal Harry (1.32)
2019’s second wide receiver drafted behind Baltimore’s Marquise Brown, Harry joins a Patriots offense missing the NFL’s sixth-most Air Yards (1,771) from last season. A prolific three-year producer at Arizona State, Harry caught 213 balls, scored 22 career TDs, and gained 20 or more yards on a whopping 44% of his receptions last year. A physical clasher with 4.53 speed at 6-foot-2, 228, Harry will likely need to be schemed targets as an interior, sometimes “big slot” receiver who doesn’t naturally separate outside. Harry still offers immediate upside behind Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon. Long term, the Patriots’ pass-option pecking order couldn’t be more wide open. Edelman is 33, and Gordon is perennially unreliable.
3. Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf (2.32)
Metcalf’s limitations were apparent at both Ole Miss and the Combine. He lined up only on the left side of the formation and ran almost strictly go routes and screens, then bombed agility drills with 4.50 short-shuttle and 7.38 three-cone times. Metcalf runs 4.33 at 6-foot-3, 228, however, and no one in this entire draft has a quicker first step; Metcalf’s 1.48 ten-yard split easily led all 2019 Combine invitees. In Seattle, Metcalf will be an absolute bear for secondaries to chase on Russell Wilson’s improvisational plays. Metcalf also has immediate opportunity as a probable day-one starter across from Tyler Lockett. My favorite pre-draft Metcalf comparison was Martavis Bryant, obviously without off-field concerns.
4. 49ers WR Deebo Samuel (2.04)
Samuel was reported to be the No. 2 wide receiver on San Francisco’s draft board behind N’Keal Harry. Dogged by injuries early in his South Carolina career, Samuel shook them off for a breakout redshirt senior year (62/882/11) in which he burned Clemson’s National Championship secondary for 210 yards. He also returned four career kickoffs for TDs and tested as a 93rd-percentile athlete in Indy, blazing 4.48 at 5-foot-11, 214. Coach Kyle Shanahan has prioritized receivers capable of moving all around the formation, and Samuel perfectly fits the bill as a cross between Golden Tate and Pierre Garcon. Samuel is every bit as likely as Dante Pettis to emerge as the Niners’ short- or even long-term No. 1 wideout.
5. Ravens WR Marquise Brown (1.25)
The most-explosive receiver in the draft was also the first selected after Brown operated as Baker Mayfield, then Kyler Murray’s go-to guy at Oklahoma. Brown left school with a career 18.3 yards-per-catch average and led all of Division I in 50-plus-yard receptions (14) over the last two years. Brown underwent offseason Lisfranc surgery and didn’t run before the draft, but his speed isn’t in doubt. His new offense is after last year’s Ravens averaged a league-low 23 pass attempts per game once Lamar Jackson replaced Joe Flacco. While Brown’s floor is low, his ceiling remains high. Jackson’s passing efficiency improved every year at Louisville, and Brown will be the primary beneficiary if Jackson takes similar NFL steps forward. On the field, Brown’s game is reminiscent of T.Y. Hilton and Tyreek Hill.
6. Titans WR A.J. Brown (2.19)
A top-three receiver in my pre-draft rankings, I’ve admittedly put myself at risk of downgrading Brown too much for his landing spot. The Titans are committed to a run-first offense for the foreseeable future, and Corey Davis emerged as one of the NFL’s premier target hogs in 2018. Adam Humphries and Delanie Walker will soak up action in the middle of the field, and Tennessee lacks long-term quarterback stability with both Marcus Mariota and Ryan Tannehill in contract years. Brown broke Ole Miss’ all-time records for receiving yards and 100-plus-yard games, then ran 4.49 at 6-foot-1, 226 in Indy. He reminded me of JuJu Smith-Schuster on college tape.
7. Colts WR Parris Campbell (2.27)
Campbell looked like a potential top-five Dynasty rookie pick until Andrew Luck‘s retirement, which threw a massive wrench into the long-term outlooks of all Colts skill-position players. I remain a big fan of Campbell individually after he led all Big Ten wide receivers in 2018 yards per route run and caught 88 balls for 1,062 yards with 12 TDs before being handpicked by Colts coach Frank Reich. He should be a big upgrade on Chester Rogers at slot receiver. A 4.31 speedster at 6-foot, 205, Campbell is a bet-on-talent pick early in the second round of Dynasty rookie drafts.
8. Cardinals WR Andy Isabella (2.30)
Selected with the pick Arizona acquired for Josh Rosen, Isabella led the nation in 2018 receiving yards (1,698) and yards per route run (4.15) as a senior at UMass, then blazed 4.31 at the Combine. He likely projects to slot receiver in Kliff Kingsbury’s four-wide spread. More than a short-distance threat, Isabella ranked third in the nation in yards gained on 20-plus-yard targets last year. Keke Coutee (5’11/187) played for Kingsbury at Texas Tech and is a good example of the style of player Isabella (5’9/188) could become.
9. 49ers WR Jalen Hurd (3.04)
Hurd will create all kinds of fantasy-position eligibility dilemmas after starting over Alvin Kamara at running back for three years at Tennessee, then transitioning to slot receiver for his final college season at Baylor but still dabbling at tailback. After drafting him, coach Kyle Shanahan even suggested 6-foot-5, 228-pound Hurd could land at tight end. With 4.64/4.66 speed, Hurd likely best projects as an interior mismatch creator. Dante Pettis and Deebo Samuel are promising-but-unproven prospects, and the 49ers’ wideout depth chart is wide open beyond that, especially after Trent Taylor underwent back and foot surgeries early in his career. Hurd could add sneaky box-score value as a goal-line back as a combination of Latavius Murray as a rusher and Marques Colston as a receiver.
10. Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman (2.24)
I considered ranking Hardman as my No. 3 wideout immediately after the draft based on his optimal destination, much earlier than expected draft capital – a projected third-day pick, the Chiefs traded up for Hardman at No. 56 overall – and Tyreek Hill’s then-uncertain future. But I evaluated Hardman closer to Marquise Goodwin before the draft, and Hardman’s stock took a significant hit when Hill avoided suspension. Hardman lacks the physicality and contested-catch prowess of Hill as a finesse deep threat with 4.33 jets at 5-foot-10, 183. Hardman may have more growth potential than his 59-catch college career suggests, however; he didn’t even play wide receiver in high school and showed elite ability with the ball in his hands by averaging 15.2 yards per punt return with a touchdown over his final two seasons at Georgia. Many “small” WR hits dominated in the return game in college, such as
Odell Beckham, Antonio Brown, DeSean Jackson, T.Y. Hilton, and Steve Smith.
11. Redskins WR Terry McLaurin (3.12)
If Kelvin Harmon is the Redskins’ plus-sized possession receiver of the future — Josh Doctson clearly is not — and Trey Quinn has locked down slot duties, McLaurin could project as Washington’s long-term vertical threat. My initial evaluation of McLaurin put him on the Devery Henderson spectrum as a downfield burner with special-teams gunner value, but the more I’ve learned about him the less I trust my first inkling. Ohio State receivers are all role players who aren’t given opportunities to run full route trees, making them extremely difficult to forecast into the pros. McLaurin’s in-place chemistry with Buckeyes QB Dwayne Haskins can’t be overlooked for their eventual rapport in Washington, and McLaurin offers the size (6’0/205), speed (4.35), and toughness to severely outkick his draft slot as Washington’s potential year-one No. 1 receiver with ample room to grow.
12. Steelers WR Diontae Johnson (3.02)
JuJu Smith-Schuster is the Steelers’ lone bankable long-term pass catcher with Antonio Brown gone to Oakland, Donte Moncrief signed to what amounts to a one-year deal, Vance McDonald year to year after 2019, and James Washington coming off a silent rookie campaign. Although Johnson’s forty (4.53) and three-cone (7.09) times don’t stand out, he showed elite ability with the ball in his hands by leading the nation in punt-return average (19.9 yards) over his final two seasons and destroying the MAC for a career 137/2,276/24 (16.6 YPR) receiving line. The Steelers’ fruitful history of drafting wide receivers doesn’t hurt. Johnson’s best NFL fit will be in the slot as a quicker-than-fast receiver at 5-foot-11, 183.
13. Seahawks WR Gary Jennings (4.18)
Jennings consistently stood out to me when watching tape of West Virginia QB Will Grier, for whose targets Jennings competed with Jets fourth-round TE Trevon Wesco, Bills priority UDFA signing David Sills, and versatile 2020 prospect Marcus Simms. A vertical slot receiver at 6-foot-1, 214, Jennings helped himself by blazing 4.42 with 83th-percentile SPARQ results at the Combine. As Doug Baldwin’s retirement cleared immense opportunity in Seattle’s passing game, Jennings will get a shot to play early.
14. Ravens WR Miles Boykin (3.29)
Even after testing as quite literally the top athlete in the entire 2019 draft, Boykin was available late in the third round because he produced for only one season at quarterback-deficient Notre Dame and is a bit of a project. Still, Boykin’s incredible tools and physical style at 6-foot-4, 220 make him the favorite to book end speedster Marquise Brown as Baltimore’s plus-sized No. 2 receiver. Ultimately, very much of Boykin’s ability to generate fantasy-relevant stats hinges on Lamar Jackson’s passing development.
15. Bears WR Riley Ridley (4.24)
Unimpressive from size (6’1/194), speed (4.58), agility (7.22 three cone), and production (70 catches in three seasons) standpoints, Ridley nevertheless drew scouting attention at Georgia for his crisp routes, soft hands, and bloodlines as Calvin’s brother. Dontrelle Inman would be a fair comparison in terms of measurables and playing style, suggesting Ridley’s ceiling is limited not only by a deep Bears pass-catcher corps with long-term quarterback questions, but by Ridley’s possession/role-player set of skills.
16. Redskins WR Kelvin Harmon (6.33)
Harmon’s slip to the bottom of round six was among the most surprising of draft weekend after Harmon amassed 177 catches for 2,665 yards (15.1 YPR) in three seasons at NC State, showing excellent hands and plus play strength as a physical outside receiver at 6-foot-2, 221. Harmon’s inability to consistently separate and sluggish forty (4.60) and three-cone (7.15) times likely played a major role in his fall. Still, Harmon’s tape is impressive enough to suggest pushing 2016 first-round disappointment Josh Doctson can’t be ruled out. Everything is up for near- and short-term grabs in Washington’s wideout corps.
17. Dolphins WR Preston Williams (UDFA)
Originally a five-star recruit to Tennessee, Williams landed at Colorado State after multiple failed drug tests and was later disinvited from the Combine for a 2017 domestic violence arrest. He destroyed in his lone full college season (96/1,345/14), only to bomb the CSU Rams’ Pro Day with a 4.60 forty, 9-foot-8 broad jump, and 31 ½-inch vertical. The good news is virtually every job is wide open on the rebuilding Dolphins, and Williams’ talent is undeniable on the field. The bad news is he’ll have a very short leash.
18. Patriots WR Jakobi Meyers (UDFA)
Despite breaking Torry Holt‘s single-season receptions record at NC State as a senior, Meyers generated minimal pre-draft buzz. He changed that quickly after going undrafted and landing with the Patriots, who are thin at wide receiver in both the short and long terms. Meyers’ athleticism is below par, but production is more predictive for wideouts. Meyers’ camp and preseason productivity gives him short- and long-term fantasy appeal, even if his ceiling may be in the WR4/flex range.
19. Bengals WR Stanley Morgan (UDFA)
Nebraska’s all-time leader in catches (189) and receiving yards (2,747) surprisingly fell out of April’s draft after pacing the Big Ten in yards gained on 20-plus-yard targets (535) and testing as an 89th-percentile athlete at the Combine with passable 4.53 speed and the second-best three-cone time (6.78) among all wideouts in Indy. At 6-foot, 202, Morgan offers adequate size and was a precise route runner for the Cornhuskers. Tyler Boyd and 31-year-old A.J. Green are both entering contract seasons, and 2017 first-rounder John Ross has flopped.
20. Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow (5.11)
A lifetime overachiever, Renfrow walked onto Clemson’s football program and went on to start all four years, graduating with 186 career catches and dropping just one pass on 50 catch-able targets in 2018. Renfrow’s 4.59 forty at 5-foot-10, 184 is a glaring deficiency, although his 6.80 three-cone time will more than work for an interior pass-catching prospect. Between Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams, Renfrow has a real chance to earn Oakland’s first-team slot job as a rookie. Seth Roberts is at-long-last gone, leaving Renfrow, journeyman Ryan Grant, 2018 UDFA Marcell Ateman, and Cardinals castoff J.J. Nelson to vie for sub-package snaps. Renfrow profiles similarly to fellow Clemson graduate Adam Humphries.
21. Cardinals WR Hakeem Butler (4.01)
Butler was my favorite college receiver to watch before the draft as a 6-foot-5, 227-pound pterodactyl with 35 1/2-inch arms and 4.48 speed. Despite leading the nation in yards gained on 20-plus-yard targets (721) and yards per slot route run last season, Butler fell to the first pick of day three due to a penchant for drops and inability to create consistent separation. Butler was outplayed by sixth-rounder KeeSean Johnson early in Cardinals camp, and is expected to be redshirted as a rookie after fracturing his finger.
22. Seahawks WR John Ursua (7.22)
This guy got a lot more interesting when longtime Seahawks slot receiver Doug Baldwin retired. Ursua is likely limited to the slot at 5-foot-9, 178 with 4.56 speed, but he aced the short shuttle (4.08) and three-cone drill (6.77) at Hawaii’s Pro Day, and those agility tests are more predictive for winning on the interior. A slot back in the Rainbow Warriors’ run-and-shoot attack, Ursua went off for an 89/1,343/16 receiving line his final year in school. He’s a deep Dynasty sleeper in an in-flux Seahawks wideout corps.
23. Vikings WR Dillon Mitchell (7.25)
Mitchell went pro as a true junior after setting Oregon’s single-season record for receiving yards (1,184) and scoring ten touchdowns on a Pac 12-best 75 receptions in 2018. At a Marvin Jonesian 6-foot-1, 197, Mitchell blazed 4.46 with a respectable 10-foot-2 broad jump and 36 ½-inch vertical at the Combine. More than his play on the field, Mitchell was knocked during the pre-draft phase for his work ethic and passion for football. No. 3 duties in Minnesota are open behind Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, however, giving Mitchell low-probability hope of emerging as the Vikings’ top sub-package receiver.
Other Rookie Wide Receivers: Bengals WR Damion Willis (UDFA), Bucs WR Scott Miller (6.35), Giants WR Darius Slayton (5.33), Cardinals WR KeeSean Johnson (6.01), Saints WR Lil’Jordan Humphrey (UDFA), Seahawks WR Jazz Ferguson (UDFA), Colts WR Penny Hart (UDFA), Colts WR Ashton Dulin (UDFA), Lions WR Travis Fulgham (6.11), Panthers WR Terry Godwin (7.23), Jets WR Greg Dortch (UDFA), Cowboys WR Jalen Guyton (UDFA), Saints WR Emmanuel Butler (UDFA), Ravens WR Antoine Wesley (UDFA), Broncos WR Juwann Winfree (6.14), Falcons WR Marcus Green (6.30), Bills WR David Sills (UDFA), Lions WR Jon Duhart (UDFA), Vikings WR Olabisi Johnson (7.33)
