Evan Silva’s Matchups: Bills at Raiders

Buffalo @ Las Vegas
Team Totals: Bills 27.5, Raiders 24.5

Fresh off Week 3’s five-touchdown eruption highlighted by his late fourth-quarter game-winning drive, Josh Allen’s decreasingly-longshot MVP campaign continues in Sunday’s trip to Las Vegas, which has surrendered the NFL’s eighth most points (90) and an average of over 20 quarterback rushing yards, notable since Allen’s production on the ground is the only part of his game where he’s so far fallen short of expectations. Per Sports Info Solutions, this year’s Raiders are deploying eight or more defenders in the box at a league-low 3% rate. Since the beginning of 2019, Allen’s yards per carry soar from 1.6 versus stacked boxes to 6.8 when boxes are not stacked, and Allen is 23% likelier to run versus non-stacked fronts. With John Brown (calf) likely sidelined, Allen-to-Stefon Diggs pairings warrant immense DFS popularity. … Although Devin Singletary has earned larger snap and touch shares following a hot start to the season, Zack Moss’ (toe) return will restore Buffalo’s RBBC wherein Moss dominated Weeks 1-2 scoring-position work, and Allen’s dual threat eats into both backs’ projections. Based on Week 4’s mouth-watering matchup, however, Singletary should stay confidently locked into RB2 slots facing a Raiders defense enemy running backs have pillaged for 67/399/6 (5.96 YPC) rushing and a league-high 255 receiving yards. I want to see Moss reprove his health and role before teeing him up as a flex play.

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