Denver @ Houston
Team Totals: Texans 25, Broncos 22
Winners of five straight — albeit with three by two points or fewer — the surging Broncos visit Houston’s domed NRG Stadium featuring a power-based, heavy personnel offense with Russell Wilson in a game-manager role. Wilson hasn’t cleared 260 passing yards since Week 3 but leads the entire NFL in TD Rate (6.3%), a statistic that historically regresses toward the mean. The Texans have allowed the NFL’s third-fewest passing touchdowns (11), so perhaps that regression begins here. I’m treating Wilson as a fringe QB1/2 option. … Restored to bellcow work, Javonte Williams logged a season-high 70% playing-time clip and 21 touches in Week 12’s win over Cleveland. Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin are better dialed up as low-volume role players, anyway. Williams is averaging 21.4 touches over Denver’s last five games.
Wilson’s 2023 targets: Courtland Sutton 68; Jerry Jeudy 53; Perine 37; Williams 34; Adam Trautman 23; McLaughlin and Marvin Mims 21. … Held below 70 yards in nine of 11 games, Sutton has survived on end-zone trips with eight of them on the year. Sutton ranks No. 8 in the NFL in red-zone targets (14). He’s a touchdown-reliant WR2/3.
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