Last updated: December 18th at 3:09pm ET.
Team Totals: Seahawks 30, Cardinals 20
Coming off Week 15’s blowout home win over Cleveland, the Cardinals visit Seattle for a letdown spot against the NFC’s current No. 1 seed, albeit in a potentially high-scoring affair totaled around 50. Not only do the Seahawks struggle to rush the passer – they’re bottom three in sacks (24) and bottom six in QB hits (65) – but Pete Carroll’s defense will be without field-flipping FS Quandre Diggs (ankle) against the Cards. His mobility restored following a short-term hamstring scare, Kyler Murray ran for 56 yards against the Browns, while Seattle allows the NFL’s sixth-most QB rushing yards per game (19.1). Cards-Hawks offers DFS game-stack possibilities with Murray nearly certain to go lower owned than Russell Wilson. Per Sports Info Solutions, the Seahawks run zone coverage at one of the NFL’s highest rates (78%). Murray’s yards per attempt spike from 6.0 versus man coverage to 8.0 against zone, and 9 of Murray’s 15 touchdown passes have been thrown into zone coverage. … Rationally feared to be in danger of ceding work to David Johnson after Johnson’s solid Week 14, Kenyan Drake instead did precisely the opposite in Arizona’s rout of Cleveland, parlaying a season-high 23 touches into 146 yards and four TDs, while Johnson (3 touches) and Chase Edmonds (0) were nowhere to be found. Seattle has surrendered the league’s second-most rushing TDs to enemy backs (14), while Kliff Kingsbury’s rushing attack has flashed matchup-agnostic capability by keeping defenses spread out and widening run fits all year. Averaging 18.2 touches across six games since joining the Cards, Drake is a confident RB2 play at CenturyLink Field. The rest of the backfield can’t be trusted.
Murray’s Weeks 11-15 target distribution: Christian Kirk 30; Larry Fitzgerald 24; Drake 16; Pharoh Cooper 12; Damiere Byrd 10; Andy Isabella 7; Charles Clay 6; Johnson 4. … Burned by D.J. Moore (8/113/1), Robert Woods (7/98/1), Cooper Kupp (4/45/1), and Curtis Samuel (5/31/1) in their last two games alone, Seattle’s pass-rush deficiency is creating a domino effect on its secondary exacerbated by Diggs’ centerfield absence. Kirk should be considered an important part of any Arizona-Seattle DFS game stack and an upside WR3 in season-long leagues. Since returning from injury in Week 8, Kirk has dominated the Cardinals’ target share (31%) and yardage share (34%) versus zone coverage. As mentioned previously, Seattle relies heavily on zone defense. Kirk checked yet another box when he popped as Week 16’s No. 4 buy-low player in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Model. … Fitzgerald’s slot matchup is also swell, but patience for him ran thin long ago with just one game above 60 yards since Week 6 and one end-zone trip since Week 3. Fitzgerald is a low-ceiling WR4. … Byrd awoke from his extended slumber to lead Arizona in receiving (6/86/0) against the Browns, although he ran just 14 routes – Byrd’s fewest since Week 6 – and played 34% of the Cardinals’ offensive snaps in his ongoing rotation with Isabella, Cooper, and the team’s numerous low-volume tight ends behind Kirk and Fitz. Byrd’s Week 15 isn’t worth chasing.
Back home after rejuvenating their passing attack in Carolina following a month-plus lull, the Seahawks catch a near-optimal draw to stay hot against a Cardinals defense that’s yielded NFL highs in touchdown passes (34), passer rating (111.9), and completion rate (71.6%), and an NFC-high 8.2 yards per pass attempt. Per Sports Info Solutions, the Cardinals rank 28th in the NFL in pressure rate (33%) over the last five weeks, while Russell Wilson‘s yards per attempt spike from 7.2 in pressured pockets to 9.0 when kept clean. His TD-to-INT ratio is 20:3 in clean pockets versus 8:2 under duress. Although Wilson often needs to be pushed by opponents for Seattle’s coaching staff to open up its passing game, there are enough edges on Arizona’s side in its matchup with the Seahawks’ defense for that possibility to become a reality. We shouldn’t overthink this one; Wilson is an elite QB1 play, and Russ-to-Tyler Lockett DFS stacks are right back on the table. … Seahawks team stacks merit genuine DFS consideration in a game where Seattle should impose its offensive will. Chris Carson’s touch counts in Rashaad Penny’s (ACL) last four missed games are a monstrous 25 > 24 > 28 > 26, including Week 4’s 145-total-yard outing in these clubs’ Week 4 date. Carson is a high-ceiling RB1 play in Sunday’s rematch.
Wilson’s Weeks 13-15 target distribution: Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, and Jacob Hollister 17; Carson 8; Josh Gordon 7; David Moore and Malik Turner 6; Jaron Brown 3. … Lockett revealed after last week’s win that his midseason flu bug cost him ten pounds, especially debilitating for a wideout who only weighs 182. But Lockett looked all the way back against the Panthers and should ether Arizona’s slot coverage. The Cardinals have been pounded for 10.0 yards per attempt and 11 touchdowns on 129 interior targets (8.5% TD Rate) this year. … Metcalf is also in a plum Week 16 spot; Arizona has surrendered the NFL’s third-most 20-plus-yard completions (63), while both Lockett and Metcalf rank top 12 in the league in 20-plus-yard downfield targets. Continuing to demonstrate rare consistency for a rookie wide receiver, Metcalf earned every-week WR2 treatment months ago with 75-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 12-of-14 games. Patrick Peterson‘s potential shadow coverage isn’t a big worry for Metcalf; since Peterson came off suspension in Week 7, only five NFL corners have given up more yards (478) and only six more catches (36). … Even as Hollister has gone quiet lately during a scoreless month, Sunday’s matchup is friendly enough to resuscitate him versus a Cardinals defense that’s by far allowed the league’s most fantasy points to tight ends, and even conceded two TDs to Browns rotational TE Ricky Seals-Jones last week. … Gordon contributed a highlight-reel fingertips catch for 58 yards against the Panthers but was unfortunately suspended indefinitely on Monday for substance-abuse and PEDs violations. Seattle will resort to some combination of Turner, Brown, and David Moore for third receiver duties versus Arizona.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 28, Cardinals 20