Dallas @ Buffalo
Team Totals: Bills 26, Cowboys 24
Winners of five straight — and eight games by 20+ points over the course of the year — the Cowboys visit Buffalo as arguably the NFL’s hottest team. New MVP betting favorite Dak Prescott is in Peyton Manningian form plus athleticism, manipulating the pocket, and delivering pinpoint darts downfield. I recently took a shot on Mike McCarthy at 22 to 1 to win Coach of the Year. In Week 15, Prescott draws a Bills defense missing breakout EDGE A.J. Epenesa (rib) and secondary captain Micah Hyde (stinger) with hulking DT DaQuan Jones, Swiss-army-knife LB Matt Milano, and top CB Tre’Davious White already done for the year. … Tony Pollard stayed in front of Rico Dowdle during Week 14’s win over Philadelphia, out-touching Dowdle 23 to 13 and out-snapping him 59 to 23. But Dowdle is starting to pose a short-yardage and goal-line threat, and deservedly so because Pollard has converted just five of 27 carries inside the 5-yard line into touchdowns (15%). Dowdle executed from a yard out in the second quarter last Sunday. I’m staying locked on Pollard as an RB1 in this projected shootout, but Dowdle is now in flex-option play.
Dak’s 2023 target distribution: CeeDee Lamb 129, Jake Ferguson 74; Pollard 58; Brandin Cooks 57; Michael Gallup 50; Jalen Tolbert 24; Dowdle 12.
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