Sunday Night Football
Miami @ Philadelphia
Team Totals: Eagles 27.5, Dolphins 24.5
Tua Tagovailoa enters Week 7 leading the NFL in passing yards (1,876), yards per attempt (9.5), passing TDs (14), QB rating (114.1), and 20+ yard completions (13). The Dolphins are No. 1 in the league in yards per play (8.0); Buffalo is a distant second (6.0). Miami’s to-date offensive dominance obviously isn’t in question here, yet their ability to sustain it on the road against Philadelphia’s formidable defense is. Driven by Tua’s league-best propensity for getting the ball out quickly, his receivers’ highlight-reel speed, and HC Mike McDaniel’s brilliant scheming, I’m betting the Fins hold up their end of this game’s scoring bargain. (I took the over on 51.5.) … Raheem Mostert’s Weeks 2-6 touch counts were 19 > 20 > 10 > 12 > 20, while Chris Brooks (ankle) joined De’Von Achane (ankle) on I.R. this week. Salvon Ahmed has settled in as Achane’s fill-in pace-change back, while Jeff Wilson (abdomen/finger, I.R.) is tentatively expected to be activated here. I’m dialing up Mostert as a legit RB1 and Ahmed as a flex option and one-game DFS tournament play. Ahmed logged nine touches on a 36% playing-time clip in Week 6’s win over Carolina.
Tua’s 2023 target distribution: Tyreek Hill 59; Jaylen Waddle 35; Mostert and Braxton Berrios 25; Durham Smythe 16; Ahmed and De’Von Achane 10. … TyFreak began the season declaring his intent to top 2,000 yards, and through six games he’s on pace for an otherworldly 2,307.
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