Evan Silva’s Matchups: Dolphins at Jets

Friday 3:00 PM ET Game

Miami @ N.Y. Jets

Team Totals: Dolphins 20.5, Jets 10.5

In six career meetings with HC Robert Saleh’s Jets defense, Tua Tagovailoa is a largely pedestrian 45-of-62 passing (72.6%) for 478 yards (7.7 YPA), a 4:3 TD-to-INT ratio, and 25 scoreless rushing yards. This year, Gang Green is allowing the NFL’s 10th-fewest fantasy quarterback points while generating the league’s second-highest pressure rate despite blitzing at the lowest rate in football. I still trust Tua, offensive guru Mike McDaniel, and Miami’s dynamic wideouts enough to keep Tagovailoa on the low-end QB1 map. In a game everyone will be watching, this is a big opportunity for Tua to make his MVP move. … De’Von Achane (knee) isn’t going to be out long; McDaniel said after last week’s win that Achane was pushing to go back in, and he practiced on a limited basis all week. But Achane is expected to miss Friday’s contest, likely leaving the Fins’ backfield to Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson after Salvon Ahmed (foot) went on I.R. Mostert profiles as a probable workhorse after banking 23 touches on 79% of the Fins’ offensive snaps after Achane’s early-game departure against the Raiders. Wilson, who has touched the ball just 12 times all year, is mildly justifiable as a desperate flex option. The Jets pose a mediocre matchup for RBs.

Tua’s 2023 targets: Tyreek Hill 108; Jaylen Waddle 67; Mostert 26; Braxton Berrios 25; Ahmed and Durham Smythe 22; Cedrick Wilson 19; Achane 11. … The Dolphins’ target spread remains as narrow as can be; McDaniel doesn’t even try to get the ball to pass catchers outside of Hill and Waddle.