Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.
Sunday Night Football
Atlanta @ Minnesota
Team Totals: Falcons 20.5, Vikings 24
Silva’s still upset Younghoe Koo’s missed FG cost him the Over in Week 1, moving Atlanta to 0-3 in as many consecutive one-score games. Even in being concerned about Michael Penix Jr.’s blindside without stud RT Kaleb McGary, the 25-year-old QB completed 69% of his passes for 9.8 YPA (eighth) when Todd Bowles blitzed him 27.7% of the time; Vikings DC Brian Flores blitzed Caleb Williams on 40.9% of his dropbacks in Chicago. Quietly scampering for a career-high six carries against the Bucs, Penix profiles as a confident QB2. … Before I poke holes in Bijan Robinson’s matchup, note that his 100 receiving yards were 27 more than the next closest RB, leading his position with a 77% route rate. The concern for his ceiling outcome on one-game slates (which is why most of you read these words) is for Minnesota’s elite run D, allowing the fourth-lowest rate of explosive carries last year, and most recently limiting D’Andre Swift to a single run of 10+ yards. For what it’s worth, Minnesota’s EPA/play sunk from third to 15th with LB Blake Cashman (hamstring, I.R.) off the field. Tyler Allgeier remains a TD-or-bust option behind Bijan, handling 45.4% of the team’s RB carries with zero targets to show for.
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