Last updated: November 20th at 4:34pm ET.
Team Totals: Raiders 24.5, Jets 21.5
Winners of three straight and five of their last seven, the suddenly-playoff-contending Raiders trek to The Meadowlands to face a pass-funnel Jets team that got lit up by Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB6), Gardner Minshew (QB6), and Daniel Jones (QB2) in Weeks 8-10 before becoming the first defense to make Dwayne Haskins (QB16) appear competent last week. Derek Carr is rarely an upside fantasy play – he’s finished QB12 or better in just 3-of-10 starts and never exceeded QB7 – but this matchup is favorable enough to support Carr as a high-end streamer with some DFS-tournament appeal in stacks with Darren Waller or Tyrell Williams, whose plus draws we’ll get to shortly. … Josh Jacobs enters Week 12 with 17-plus touches in seven straight games to face a run-tough Jets front that’s smothered enemy backs for 217/654/8 (3.01 YPC) rushing. Working in Jacobs’ favor is his bankable workload as Oakland’s offensive centerpiece and the likelihood of neutral script favored at New York, which should allow Jon Gruden to keep pounding his run game even if it doesn’t work early. As Jacobs has at least two catches in six of his last seven games, it helps that the Jets have allowed the NFL’s fifth-most-running back receptions (63).
Carr’s 2019 target distribution: Waller 71; Hunter Renfrow 48; Tyrell Williams 43; Jacobs 23; Jalen Richard 22; Foster Moreau 20; DeAndre Washington 15; Zay Jones 12; Derek Carrier 10. … Fresh off busting his three-game slump in last week’s win over the Bengals (5/78/0), Waller catches a Jets defense Mike Gesicki (6/95/0), Zach Ertz (5/57/1), Jason Witten (5/57/0), Rhett Ellison (3/42/0), and Jeremy Sprinkle (2/16/1) all touched up for useful-or-better receiving lines within New York’s last seven games. Fourth among tight ends in Air Yards since Oakland’s Week 6 bye (263), Waller is a shoo-in top-five TE1 in this favorable spot. … Renfrow has earned PPR-specific WR4 treatment with 40-plus yards and/or a touchdown in four straight weeks, even while averaging just 5.5 targets during that span. Renfrow’s ceiling remains limited as a short-area possession receiver hovering around 50% of Oakland’s offensive snaps. … Williams draws the Raiders’ best Week 12 pass-catcher matchup against a Jets secondary that’s allowed at- or above-expectation production to fellow perimeter WRs Darius Slayton (10/121/2), Chris Conley (4/103/1), D.J. Chark (6/79/1), Preston Williams (5/72/2), Terry McLaurin (3/69/0), DeVante Parker (4/57/1), Kelvin Harmon (5/53/0), and Phillip Dorsett (3/46/1) over its last five games. Tyrell The Gazelle has cleared 80 yards and/or scored a touchdown in 6-of-8 appearances this season.
This game offers shootout potential with pass-funnel defenses on both sides that should encourage each team to stay aggressive through the air, raising offensive efficiency and spiking incompletions that stop the clock. Albeit against the lowly Giants and Redskins, Sam Darnold caught Weeks 10-11 fire on 38-of-60 passing (63.3%) for 523 yards (8.72 YPA), five touchdowns, one pick, and an additional rushing score. Quarterbacks have a 24:8 TD-to-INT ratio against Oakland while averaging 8.2 yards per attempt, the NFL’s fourth-highest mark. Darnold is an upside streamer with legit DFS playability after back-to-back top-eight QB1 scores. … Although partly because they nursed a 20-3 lead into the fourth quarter, the Jets scaled back Le’Veon Bell’s Week 11 snaps to a season-low 56% with Bell battling rib and knee injuries in addition to an illness. He still emerged with 20-plus touches for the third straight week and should be healthier here. While the Raiders have defended the run stoutly for most of the season, DC Paul Guenther’s unit has shown enough recent vulnerability for this to be considered an unimposing draw for Bell. Oakland was touched up for 61/320/2 (5.25 YPC) rushing by enemy backs over the last three weeks and has allowed the league’s ninth-most receiving yards to running backs on the year (478).
Darnold’s 2019 target distribution: Jamison Crowder 58; Robby Anderson 39; Demaryius Thomas 35; Bell 34; Ryan Griffin 27; Vyncint Smith 11; Ty Montgomery 5. … Dominating targets within the Jets’ offense and having tallied 75-plus yards with a touchdown in three straight games, Crowder has earned every-week WR3 treatment in season-long leagues with WR2 upside in PPR. Crowder’s target share on Darnold throws is 26.2%; for perspective, Tyler Lockett’s target share on Russell Wilson’s passes is just 23.2%. … Anderson feels impossible to trust with downward-trending target counts and just one game over 43 yards in his last eight, but this is another ripe matchup for a vertical receiver of his type. The Raiders have allowed the NFL’s second-most completions of 20-plus yards (48) and 40-plus yards (11), while Anderson has been the recipient of 29% of Gang Green’s 20-plus-yard targets; next closest on the team is Demaryius at 12%. Per Sports Info Solutions, Oakland has allowed league highs in completions on 20-plus-yard downfield targets (27), yards on such attempts (952), and touchdowns (9) on throws with 20-plus Air Yards behind them. … Still scoreless on the year and lacking big-play ability on his career back nine, Thomas is never a sexy play even in the finest matchups. … With stat lines of 4/66/2 > 6/50/0 > 5/109/1 in his last three full games, Griffin needs to be taken TE1 seriously against an Oakland defense that’s permitted the NFL’s third-most fantasy points to tight ends this year. Easily attacked in the middle of the field, Raiders opponents are 34-of-40 (85%) for 329 yards (8.2 YPA) and four touchdowns when targeting Oakland’s inside linebackers in coverage.
Score Prediction: Jets 24, Raiders 23