Evan Silva’s Matchups: Vikings at Bears

Minnesota @ Chicago

Team Totals: Vikings 23.5, Bears 21

1-4 and surely deflated by Justin Jefferson’s (hamstring, I.R.) 4-6 week loss, Minnesota is a team to bet against this week as 2.5-point road favorites. (I’m parlaying the Bears’ money line with the game-total over on 44.5 points.) Trade rumors are already surrounding Kirk Cousins, while Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is a forward-thinking mind with strong ties to the tank-willing Sashi Brown–Andrew Berry Browns front-office tree. I’m obviously downgrading Cousins’ outlook sans arguably the best wideout in the league, while I’m doing everything I can to unload Jefferson in season-long leagues with the impact of his injury still fresh on people’s minds. Multiple reports indicate Jefferson won’t return for a month and a half, and the Vikings’ season will almost certainly be over by the time he gets back. (Assuming he does at all.) … The Bears have been diced by enemy backs for an average of 145 total yards and eight TDs in five games. In Week 5’s loss to K.C., Alexander Mattison out-touched Cam Akers by only a 10 to 7 margin and out-snapped Akers 37 to 21. As Mattison has slipped at times in pass protection, he lost some obvious passing-down snaps to FB C.J. Ham in Week 5. Sunday’s matchup is too favorable to throw Mattison away, but his usage is (deservedly) in decline. He’s an RB2/flex option. Akers remains a stash.

Cousins’ 2023 targets: Jefferson 53; T.J. Hockenson 39; Jordan Addison 29; K.J. Osborn 26; Mattison 21; Josh Oliver 10; Brandon Powell 7. … Averaging double-digit targets per game with a 36% Air Yards share, Jefferson’s loss creates a volume vacuum for the rest of Minnesota’s pass catchers.