Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 10

Team Totals: Bears 21, Panthers 17.5

After publicly acknowledging his team took a Week 9 “step backward on offense”, HC Frank Reich’s Panthers encounter a Bears defense struggling mightily to rush the passer while surrendering the NFL’s sixth-most fantasy quarterback points. Far more playable on one-game DFS slates than in two-QB-league scenarios, Bryce Young has cleared 15 fantasy points in one of seven starts. … Chuba Hubbard has taken over as Carolina’s primary back, in Week 9 out-snapping Miles Sanders 46 to 18 while out-touching Sanders by a 20-to-9 margin. Hubbard’s TNF matchup is improved by the Bears’ loss of ILB Tremaine Edmunds (knee). I’m treating Hubbard as a locked-in RB2 and Sanders as a single-game DFS tournament gamble at best.

Young’s 2023 targets: Adam Thielen 62; Jonathan Mingo 32; Hayden Hurst 25; D.J. Chark 23; Terrace Marshall 21; Hubbard and Sanders 20; Tommy Tremble 8. … Dominated by Colts slot CB Kenny Moore last week, Thielen encounters a rebound spot against a Bears defense missing Edmunds and especially vulnerable to interior completions. Young has completed 34 more passes to Thielen than any other Panther on the year. … Mingo hasn’t hit paydirt or topped 62 yards in a game all year but will operate as Carolina’s unchallenged No. 1 perimeter receiver with Chark (elbow) on the shelf. Mingo is a strong one-game DFS slate play. … Chark’s absence highlights Marshall as a one-game DFS slate sleeper. … With Stephen Sullivan (shoulder) sidelined to reduce Carolina’s three-man TEBC to a two-way ordeal, both Hurst and Tremble are single-game DFS options. Hurst tends to run more routes, while Tremble plays more offensive snaps. The Bears have surrendered the league’s sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends.

With Justin Fields (thumb) listed as doubtful, the Bears will trot out Tyson Bagent for his fourth straight start after Chicago’s undrafted rookie managed fantasy finishes of QB20 (vs. LV), QB24 (@ LAC), and QB7 (@ NO) in Weeks 7-9. Last week’s top-seven score was buoyed by Bagent’s 70 rushing yards; the Panthers have permitted an NFL-low three rushing yards to quarterbacks on the season. With Carolina missing EDGE Brian Burns (concussion), CB C.J. Henderson (concussion), CB Jaycee Horn (hamstring, I.R.), CB/S Jeremy Chinn (quad, I.R.), LB Shaq Thompson (broken fibula, I.R.), and potentially FS Xavier Woods (thigh), I like Bagent’s chances of outscoring Young on a one-for-one basis here. … Khalil Herbert (ankle) appears likely to come off I.R. after a full week of practice. Yet Herbert’s optimal utilization is in a change-of-pace role, and early-down pounder D’Onta Foreman spent the past four weeks dominating to the tune of 60/271/2 (4.5 YPC) rushing with 5/35/1 through the air. In a #RevengeGame against his former team, I’m expecting Foreman to control first-down, second-down, and goal-line carries on Thursday night with Herbert operating as a changeup and Roschon Johnson providing insurance.

Bagent’s 2023 target distribution: D.J. Moore 26; Cole Kmet 18; Darnell Mooney 17; Tyler Scott 11; Darrynton Evans 9; Foreman 8; Johnson 5. … In addition to targets, Moore leads the Bears in catches (19), yards (197), and first-down conversions (11) on Bagent’s throws. The Panthers’ seemingly countless secondary losses support Moore’s Week 10 upside case. … Bagent is a near-perfect 16-of-18 passing for 134 yards and two touchdowns when targeting Kmet. Kmet maintains touchdown dependency but is fully TE1 playable here. … Mooney has hit paydirt once since last November. He’s just a single-game DFS tournament dart. … Scott has emerged as the Bears’ No. 3 receiver, giving him one-game DFS appeal.

Score Projection: Panthers 20, Bears 17

Green Bay @ Pittsburgh

Team Totals: Steelers 21, Packers 18