Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 12

Thanksgiving Thursday

12:30 PM ET Game

Green Bay @ Detroit

Team Totals: Lions 27.5, Packers 20

Looking to build on last week’s career-high 322 passing yards and top-12 fantasy QB finish, Jordan Love visits domed Ford Field to face a Lions defense that Lamar Jackson carved up for Week 7’s overall QB1 result, Justin Herbert shredded for Week 10’s QB2 score, and Justin Fields bent for a top-10 outcome last Sunday. Love has at least 14 fantasy points in all but one start this year and is a legit running threat, notable since Detroit has yielded the NFL’s ninth-most QB rushing yards (244). … Aaron Jones’ (knee) expected absence gives Green Bay more reason to lean on Love over its backfield rushing attack. With No. 3 RB Emanuel Wilson (shoulder) likewise shelved, plodding A.J. Dillon profiles as the Packers’ Week 12 feature back with Patriots practice squad signee Patrick Taylor next in line for work. Dillon did play every single second-half snap following Jones’ injury against the Chargers and projects as a largely touchdown-reliant RB2. A passing-down specialist, Taylor is a deep sleeper on Thursday-only DFS slates.

Love’s 2023 target distribution: Romeo Doubs 65; Jayden Reed 51; Luke Musgrave 45; Christian Watson 37; Dontayvion Wicks 32; Jones 29; Dillon 21. … Doubs has reached 55 yards just twice all season, but his scoring-zone role is real with seven TDs in 10 games despite zero catches longer than 30 yards all year. Doubs ranks No. 7 in the league in targets inside the 10-yard line (8). He’s a touchdown-or-bust WR3/flex option. … Previously sharing third receiver time with Wicks, Reed took over those duties near fully in Week 11’s victory, while Wicks looks doubtful coming off a knee injury and concussion. Second-round rookie Reed is a playmaker with 299 yards from scrimmage and two TDs over the Packers’ last four games. Reed also returns punts, giving him correlation appeal alongside Green Bay’s D/ST. … Musgrave’s (abdomen) availability is questionable after he was listed as a non-practice participant on Monday. His direct backup is third-round rookie Tucker Kraft. H-back/TE Josiah Deguara (hip) was also listed as DNP early in the week, potentially positioning Kraft for a huge role. … Watson led Packers pass catchers in Week 10 targets (7), then led them in snaps (78%) and pass routes run (36) in Week 11’s win over the Bolts. Watson’s box-score results have frustrated all year, but his role remains secure, and his Week 12 matchup is favorable indoors against a Lions defense yielding the NFL’s 11th-most fantasy WR points.

Jared Goff’s Week 11 on-field play was obviously lacking in Detroit’s near-home loss to the Bears, lowlighted by three interceptions. But betting on Goff to meet or exceed expectations at home has been profitable throughout his career, while Goff enters Week 12 with a robust 10:5 TD-to-INT ratio, an additional rushing score, and 7.5 yards per pass attempt over his last six starts. He’s a borderline QB1/2 here. … In Week 11’s largely neutral-script battle with Chicago, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs split touches exactly evenly (14), while Gibbs earned the edge in snaps (36 to 25). I’m valuing both as low-end RB1s with high-end RB1 upside against a Packers defense opponents tend to attack aggressively on the ground. Only six NFL teams have faced more running back rushing attempts than Green Bay.

Goff’s 2023 targets: Amon-Ra St. Brown 98; Sam LaPorta 69; Gibbs 44; Josh Reynolds 37; Kalif Raymond 29; Jameson Williams 20; Montgomery 12. … A no-brainer top-five WR1 play each week, St. Brown has 100+ yards and/or a touchdown in every single game this season. … LaPorta’s Week 12 matchup is improved by the probable absence of Packers pass-coverage maven ILB De’Vondre Campbell (neck). Last week, St. Brown was the only Lion to run more routes than LaPorta. … Reynolds has been scoreless since Week 5 and has managed 15 receiving yards or fewer in three straight games. He’s still locked into No. 2 wideout duties based on on-field participation and worthy of strong consideration on Thursday-only DFS slates but can’t be used in season-long fantasy. … Williams has emerged as the Lions’ clear-cut No. 3 wideout, in Week 11 logging a career-high 65% snap rate. The sophomore wideout ran only two fewer routes than Reynolds against the Bears. This is a fun possible breakthrough spot for the 2022 first-round lid lifter.

Score Prediction: Lions 27, Packers 20

Thanksgiving 4:30 PM ET Game

Washington @ Dallas

Team Totals: Cowboys 30, Commanders 19

This looks like another eruption spot for Dallas’ D/ST at home versus Washington’s swinging-gate pass protection, which has taken small strides since early in the season but still permitted 10 Sam Howell takedowns over its last three games. Only six teams have yielded fewer fantasy quarterback points than the Cowboys. I’m shying away from Howell beyond Thanksgiving-only slates. … Brian Robinson handled true feature back work in Antonio Gibson’s (toe) Week 11 absence en route to a career-high 78% playing-time clip and 24 touches against the Giants. Gibson returned to limited early-week practice and has a chance to play here. Dallas is holding opposing RBs to 3.8 yards per carry and the league’s eighth-fewest fantasy points, while game-script projections are decidedly anti-Robinson with Washington installed as a two-score underdog on the road. Robinson’s recent passing-game surge suggests he can develop into more than an early-down grinder — he has 13 catches for 177 yards over the past two weeks — but Gibson’s return would certainly cut heavily into Robinson’s receiving opportunities on Thursday.

UPDATE: Commanders listed Antonio Gibson (toe) as questionable for Thanksgiving after he practiced on a limited basis each day this week. He’s sounding like a game-day decision.

Howell’s 2023 target distribution: Terry McLaurin 86; Jahan Dotson 63; Logan Thomas 58; Curtis Samuel 51; Gibson 35; Robinson 33; Dyami Brown 20; John Bates 19; Jamison Crowder 18; Byron Pringle 16; Cole Turner 13. … Only the Jets have surrendered fewer fantasy WR points than the Cowboys. McLaurin is a season-long WR3 play but warrants heavy DFS tournament consideration on Thursday-only slates averaging 8.8 targets over Washington’s last six games. … Dotson has topped 43 receiving yards twice all season. Still locked into two-receiver sets, Dotson is a better play in Thanksgiving DFS scenarios than anywhere else. … Thomas is averaging five catches over Washington’s last four games, playing at least 70% of the Commanders’ offensive snaps in all four. Thomas’ Week 12 matchup is improved by Cowboys SS Jayron Kearse’s back injury. Kearse, who is listed as doubtful, is often deployed as Dallas’ designated tight end stopper. … Samuel was ejected late in the first half of Week 11’s loss to the Giants but looks all systems go at Dallas. He’s a Thanksgiving-only DFS tournament gamble.

Ethered by Geno Smith and Tommy DeVito for a combined 49-of-73 passing (67%), 615 yards (8.4 YPA), and a 5:0 TD-to-INT ratio over their last two games, the Commanders’ pass defense looks like a sitting duck versus red-hot Dak Prescott. Prescott is fantasy’s overall QB1 since Week 6. … Tony Pollard only out-touched Rico Dowdle 16 to 10 in Week 11’s domination of Carolina, but Pollard barely played in the fourth quarter of Dallas’ 33-10 victory, while Dowdle missed early-week practice with the ankle injury that nearly kept him out of last Sunday’s contest. The Cowboys are convincing two-score home favorites over the Commanders, positioning clear-cut lead back Pollard for Week 12 box-score success. Pollard’s efficiency has underwhelmed all year, but he’s banked 15+ touches in four of Dallas’ last five games.

UPDATE: The Commanders indeed ruled out first-round CB Emmanuel Forbes (elbow) for Thanksgiving.

Dak’s 2023 target distribution: CeeDee Lamb 93; Jake Ferguson 55; Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup 43; Pollard 40; Jalen Tolbert 19; Luke Schoonmaker 10. … Lamb enters Week 12 averaging 137.6 total yards and 1.0 all-purpose touchdowns over his last five games. He’s emerged as a realistic candidate for NFL Offensive Player of the Year. … Tight ends on big home-favorite teams like Ferguson have strong touchdown-scoring track records, and Ferguson leads the entire NFC in targets inside opposing 10-yard lines this season (10). He’s a surefire TE1 play this week. … The Cowboys have leaned into Cooks as their No. 2 wideout over the past two games; he’s netted a robust 12/215/1 (17.9 YPR) receiving line on 14 targets during that span. The Commanders have coughed up the league’s third-most fantasy points to WRs and may be without first-round CB Emmanuel Forbes (elbow) on Thursday. … Continuing to lose playing time to Tolbert and Dallas’ multiple-tight end sets, Gallup’s 35% snap rate in Week 11’s victory was a season low. Tolbert and Schoonmaker are longshot darts on Thanksgiving-only DFS slates.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 28, Commanders 20

8:20 PM ET Game