Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 14

 

NE @ PIT | TB @ ATL | DET @ CHI | IND @ CIN | JAX @ CLE | CAR @ NO | HOU @ NYJ | LAR @ BAL | MIN @ LV | SEA @ SF | BUF @ KC | DEN @ LAC | PHI @ DAL | TEN @ MIA | GB @ NYG

 

 

Thursday Night Football

New England @ Pittsburgh

Team Totals: Steelers 18, Patriots 12

New England visits Pittsburgh having held each of its last three opponents to 10 points or fewer, even while losing all three as part of a five-game losing streak. I bet the Patriots to score under 0.5 touchdowns in this game at +170. … The Steelers’ D/ST is a better Week 14 fantasy bet than any Patriots quarterback on a one-for-one basis; Bailey Zappe was a Week 13 trainwreck against the Chargers and on the season is 32-of-64 passing (50%) for 299 yards (4.7 YPA) with a 0:2 TD-to-INT ratio and seven sacks taken on 71 dropbacks. Zappe has rushed for 16 yards. … As Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) seems unlikely to play on a short week, Ezekiel Elliott profiles as the Patriots’ Week 14 bellcow back. The Steelers have allowed the NFL’s 11th-most fantasy points to running backs. While not expecting (any) explosive plays, I am willing to dial up Zeke as a volume-based RB2 starter in an unimposing matchup.

Having already discarded ILBs Kwon Alexander (Achilles) and Cole Holcomb (knee) for the year, the Steelers lost ILB Elandon Roberts (groin) early in Week 13. Pittsburgh was subsequently diced up by Cardinals TEs for a combined 11/120/1 receiving line in last Sunday’s defeat. I’m very willing to tee up Hunter Henry on one-game DFS slates after Henry drew four targets on 73% of New England’s offensive snaps in last Sunday’s loss to the Chargers. … On the season, Zappe has targeted DeVante Parker a team-high 11 times. Parker’s nine targets easily paced last week’s Patriots. The Steelers have allowed the NFL’s eighth-most yards to enemy wideouts (2,025). … Unless Pop Douglas (concussion) and/or Kayshon Boutte (shoulder) get cleared by Thursday night, the Patriots’ likeliest three-receiver package would feature Parker and Tyquan Thornton outside with JuJu Smith-Schuster on the interior. Thornton has five receptions all season. Smith-Schuster has cleared 35 yards once through 10 appearances as a Patriot.

In Kenny Pickett’s (ankle surgery) absence, Pittsburgh will turn to Mitchell Trubisky against a Patriots defense surrendering the NFL’s fourth-fewest fantasy QB points. Through 10 appearances (five starts) as a Steeler, Trubisky is completing 64% of his throws but averaging a modest 6.7 yards per pass attempt with a 6:7 TD-to-INT ratio. In what profiles as an exceptionally low-scoring affair, New England’s D/ST is a hot play versus Pittsburgh’s error-prone backup quarterback … Even after Najee Harris largely controlled the Steelers’ Week 13 backfield in a losing effort versus Arizona, I expect a Week 14 return toward equal distribution. Over Pittsburgh’s last five games, Jaylen Warren is averaging 7.5 yards per carry compared to Harris’ 4.6 YPC. Harris isn’t going away, but Warren is obviously the Steelers’ superior tailback option and presents matchup advantages over New England’s speed-deficient second-level defenders. Both Harris and Warren are viable RB2s, but I’m continuing to bet on Warren to outscore Harris straight up.

Trubisky has targeted Diontae Johnson 61 times over the past two seasons, by far more than any other Steeler. Johnson has been held to 50 yards or fewer in four straight contests but maintains upside WR3 valuation against a New England defense surrendering the league’s 11th-most fantasy points to wide receivers. … Over the past two seasons, Trubisky is 16-of-33 passing (48.5%) for 293 yards and one TD when targeting Pickens. Pickens belongs in boom-bust WR3/flex territory in Thursday’s projected low-scoring game. … Steelers No. 3 WR Allen Robinson has made a bigger impact as a run blocker than a pass catcher. A-Rob hasn’t hit paydirt all season and hasn’t cleared 30 yards since Week 1. … Pat Freiermuth is still sharing time with Darnell Washington and Connor Heyward, while New England has yielded the NFL’s fourth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. I’m valuing Freiermuth as a TD-or-bust Week 14 gamble.

Score Prediction: Steelers 13, Patriots 10

 

 

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta

Team Totals: Falcons 21, Bucs 18.5

The Bucs have leaned hard into Rachaad White over the past two weeks — playing him on 87% of their offensive snaps against the Colts and Panthers — and he’s responded with his most efficient stretch of the season, compiling a 35/184/1 rushing line (5.3 YPC) plus 5/32/0 receiving. The Falcons have played stingy run defense all year — holding enemy backs to 3.7 yards per carry and the NFL’s third-fewest fantasy points — but White’s bellcow usage has earned him every-week RB1 valuation. White has logged 15+ touches in seven straight games and is averaging 19.4 during that span. … Baker Mayfield enters Week 14 ranked 16th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring set to face a Falcons defense that has pass-funnel tendencies considering its up-front stoutness and top CB A.J. Terrell’s (concussion) probable absence. They also rank bottom seven in sacks (26). Mayfield is a quality starter in two-QB/Superflex leagues.

Mayfield’s 2023 targets: Mike Evans 103; Chris Godwin 84; White 51; Cade Otton 50; Trey Palmer 47; Deven Thompkins 22. … Fresh off locking in his 10th straight 1,000+ yard receiving season, Evans looks set to face Atlanta without All Pro-caliber cover man Terrell indoors in a must-win game for Tampa. The Bucs are one game behind the Falcons in the NFC South. I’m pushing Week 14 chips in on Evans, who ranks No. 8 in the NFL in receiving yards (1,012) and No. 2 in receiving TDs (10). … Held below 55 receiving yards in six straight games, Godwin has hit paydirt twice all season, once as a rusher (last week). Evans has simply lapped Godwin in the race for targets and Air Yards from Mayfield. Godwin is a dicey WR3 here. … Atlanta’s allowance of the NFL’s eighth-most fantasy tight ends puts Otton back on the TE1 streaming radar, even after last week’s goose egg against Carolina. Otton has played at least 91% of Tampa’s offensive snaps in every game this season. … Palmer hasn’t cleared 51 yards in a game all year.

Through 15 career appearances (14 starts), Desmond Ridder has a 10:8 TD-to-INT ratio and 6.7 yards-per-attempt average with 11 career fumbles. Ridder’s bottom-five QB play combined with HC Arthur Smith’s extreme run-first philosophy explain the persistent box-score incompetence of Kyle Pitts and Drake London. While still fading Pitts, I do have some (admittedly high-risk) interest in London here. The pass-funnel Bucs are yielding the NFL’s sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. London is still running the most routes and playing the most snaps among Falcons pass catchers. … Bijan Robinson enters Week 14 with touch counts of 23, 19, and 21 over Atlanta’s last three games. Even in a tough draw with Tampa Bay’s Vita Vea-keyed defensive front, Robinson is a shoo-in RB1 starter who may go under-owned in DFS based on matchup. … Cordarrelle Patterson out-snapped Tyler Allgeier in Week 13’s win over the Jets, but Allgeier still out-touched Patterson 8 to 6. Neither is a fantasy option against the Buccaneers.

Score Prediction: Bucs 21, Falcons 20

 

 

Detroit @ Chicago

Team Totals: Lions 23.5, Bears 20

Fresh off a rebound game at New Orleans following two weeks of turnover-riddled struggles, Jared Goff encounters a Bears defense these same Lions knifed for 31 points just three weeks back. Goff’s career-long road splits bode negatively for his chances of building on last week’s momentum, however, and Goff appears unlikely to have stud C Frank Ragnow (knee, back, toe). I’m valuing Goff as a low-end QB1 here. … This is a #RevengeGame for David Montgomery against his former team, while the Lions tend to lean more on Montgomery when they have leads. They’re favored by 3.5 points at Soldier Field. Montgomery is averaging 18.3 touches in victories this season versus 16.0 in losses. I’m still teeing up Jahmyr Gibbs with confidence for his explosive-play ability, but I’m betting Montgomery outscores him at Soldier Field.

Amon-Ra St. Brown hosed down the Bears for 8/77/1 receiving in Week 11. St. Brown has at least 100 yards and/or a touchdown in all 11 of his appearances this season. … Jameson Williams again flashed his big-play acumen on last week’s 19-yard end-around touchdown but was targeted only once and has drawn three targets or fewer in seven of eight games this year. I still think he’ll pop for a breakout performance before the season is over. I just have no idea when it’ll happen. … Sam LaPorta ranks No. 4 among tight ends in catches (64), No. 4 in yards (679), and No. 1 in touchdowns (6). Chicago has permitted the NFL’s sixth-most fantasy points to TEs. … Josh Reynolds has fallen below 20 yards in five straight games.

The Bears return from their bye to face a declining Lions defense that lost top interior pass rusher Alim McNeill (knee) to I.R. last week. McNeill had the highest sack rate on the team and ranked second on the Lions in pressures (33). Over their last four games, the Lions have coughed up point totals of 28 (Saints), 29 (Packers), 26 (Bears), and 38 (Chargers). This is a pristine matchup for D.J. Moore with his supporting cast at full strength and inclement weather not yet hitting Chicago. D’Onta Foreman’s (ankle) return figures to return Chicago’s backfield to a three-man ordeal after Roschon Johnson operated as the Bears’ lead runner over Khalil Herbert in Week 12’s pre-bye win over the Vikings. I don’t see any of them as realistic Week 14 plays. … D.J. Moore’s receiving lines in Fields’ last six full games are 7/96/1, 8/230/3, 8/131/1, 3/41/1, 6/104/0, and 11/114/0. Fields’ 98.7 QBR when targeting Moore is the highest of any quarterback-receiver duo in the league. … Darnell Mooney has eclipsed 50 yards once since Week 4. … This is a plum spot for Cole Kmet against a Lions defense yielding the NFL’s fifth-most fantasy TE points.

Score Prediction: Bears 24, Lions 23

 

 

Indianapolis @ Cincinnati

Team Totals: Colts 22.5, Bengals 21.5

Held under 16 fantasy points in six of eight starts, Gardner Minshew remains two-QB/Superflex playable against a Bengals defense that’s allowed 30+ points in three of its last four games. Cincy is ceding a league-high 8.1 yards per pass attempt. … Even as the results didn’t follow, Zack Moss’ usage was dominant in Week 13’s win over the Titans, recording 23 touches on a whopping 94% playing-time clip. Cincinnati has hemorrhaged 4.54 yards per carry to enemy backs, setting up Moss for locked-in RB1 valuation in what projects as a neutral-script affair that would allow the Colts to feed their post-Jonathan Taylor bellcow. … With double-digit targets in eight of 12 games, Michael Pittman is a certified volume monster at the center of Indianapolis’ RPO-based attack. He’s fed high-percentage passes while having earned a mammoth 33% target share on Minshew’s 2023 attempts. … Even after he flopped at high DFS ownership in Week 13’s victory, I’m going right back to Josh Downs as a WR3 starter against a Bengals defense giving up the NFL’s 10th-most yards to enemy wide receivers. … A bet on Downs is a bet against Alec Pierce, who surprisingly out-targeted Downs (6 to 5) in Week 13. Catching two longballs for gains of 36 and 55, Pierce went off for 3/100/1 receiving after not topping 53 yards in any Weeks 1-12 game. … The Colts’ four-way TE rotation of Andrew Ogletree, Kylen Granson, Mo Alie-Cox, and Will Mallory continues to delete each individual’s fantasy relevance.

Week 13 Bengals hero Jake Browning runs into a middling Week 14 matchup against Indy’s pass defense, which ranks 20th in fantasy QB points allowed and has yielded the NFL’s 11th-fewest yards per pass attempt (7.1). But Browning has, at the very least, put himself on the two-QB/Superflex map by averaging a sturdy 8.3 YPA and flashing dual-threat acumen with a combined 9/71/1 rushing line over the last three weeks. And there might not be a better wideout corps in the league than the Bengals’. … Joe Mixon turned in his season-best fantasy result in Week 13’s upset win over Jacksonville primarily via scoring-position execution. But he also parlayed a season-high seven targets into 6/49/0 receiving, and it’s fair to wonder if higher-percentage game plans built for Browning rather than Joe Burrow’s vertical approach might benefit Mixon in the air. Indianapolis can certainly be run on, as both Derrick Henry (21/102/2) and Tyjae Spears (16/75/0) showed last week. … The Bengals pledged to get bursty rookie Chase Brown more involved last Monday and delivered; Brown added a spark with 9/61/0 rushing. But they clearly don’t trust Brown to do anything besides run the ball; he played 11 snaps and carried it on nine of them.

Browning’s 2023 target distribution: Ja’Marr Chase 22; Tyler Boyd 13; Tanner Hudson 11; Mixon 10; Trenton Irwin 7. … Browning’s willingness to throw the ball up to Chase and let him win paid major dividends in Week 13’s victory and is something we can hang our hat on looking ahead. On the year, Browning is 16-of-22 passing (73%) for 232 yards (10.5 YPA) and two touchdowns when targeting Chase. Simply short on perimeter cornerback talent, the Colts have been exposed by outside receivers all season. … Boyd has cleared 60 receiving yards once all season. … Tee Higgins returned against the Jags to log a 76% snap rate and catch all three of his targets from Browning for 36 yards. As mentioned above, this is an excellent draw for perimeter receiving threats, and Higgins runs 84% of his routes outside. … Hudson has emerged as the Bengals’ top receiving tight end but remains in a deep rotation that also involves Irv Smith, Drew Sample, and Mitchell Wilcox. Hudson played the fewest snaps of all of them in Week 13.

Score Prediction: Bengals 21, Colts 20

 

 

Jacksonville @ Cleveland

Team Totals: Browns 18, Jaguars 15

As of late Friday, line movement strongly suggested Trevor Lawrence won’t face Cleveland, altogether unsurprising since Lawrence suffered a Week 13 high ankle sprain and would be playing on the road on a short week. More likely, 30-year-old journeyman C.J. Beathard will get the nod against a Browns defense allowing the NFL’s fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.4) and a league-low 56% completion rate. Sans Christian Kirk (groin surgery, I.R.) and LT Walker Little (hamstring), Beathard has no business being in two-QB/Superflex lineups. The Browns’ D/ST is a piping-hot play. … Albeit in an extremely small sample, Beathard has by far targeted Evan Engram more than any other Jaguar. Yet no NFL defense has given up fewer fantasy tight end points than Cleveland. … Calvin Ridley feels like a hope-based WR2/3 play with Beathard at quarterback against one of the league’s top defenses in potentially inclement weather. … Zay Jones and rookie Parker Washington project to round out Jacksonville’s three-receiver packages in what sets up as an exceptionally low-scoring affair with a backup QB under center. … Travis Etienne has a chance to be the focal point of HC Doug Pederson’s Week 14 game plan, especially if Lawrence sits. Either way, Etienne is a safe-floor workload bet with 15+ touches in nine of his last 10 appearances.

Even after Dorian Thompson-Robinson (concussion) got cleared, I’m betting the Browns trot out Joe Flacco versus Jacksonville after Flacco brought a sense of timing, rhythm, and normalcy to Cleveland’s Week 13 passing offense. Flacco attempted 19 passes beyond 10 Air Yards, the most by any Browns quarterback in five years. Flacco will catch Jacksonville missing top CB Tyson Campbell (quad) and starting slot CB Tre Herndon (concussion), rendering Flacco playable in two-QB/Superflex leagues after he notched last week’s overall QB13 fantasy finish against the Rams. … Predictably and easily Flacco’s Week 13 go-to guy, Elijah Moore drew 12 targets versus L.A. en route to a season-high 83 receiving yards. Moore’s Week 14 outlook is enhanced by Campbell and Herndon’s absences plus Amari Cooper’s (concussion/ribs) shaky availability. … Week 13’s box score reads as if David Njoku lost production to fellow TE Harrison Bryant, although Njoku out-snapped Bryant 83% to 44% and out-targeted Bryant 6 to 5. Jacksonville has coughed up the NFL’s ninth-most yards to tight ends (670). I’m going right back to Njoku as a TE1 and refusing to chase Bryant’s season-best game. … The Browns resumed a three-way RBBC in Week 13’s defeat, involving Jerome Ford (36 snaps), Kareem Hunt (25), and Pierre Strong (10). The Jags’ allowance of the NFL’s ninth-fewest fantasy RB points renders each an undesirable bet here.

Score Prediction: Browns 20, Jaguars 13

 

 

Carolina @ New Orleans

Team Totals: Saints 22, Panthers 16

Bryce Young has made 11 starts as a rookie and cleared 15 fantasy points once. He lacks box-score appeal regardless of opponent, failing to exhibit enough of a ceiling for usage even in two-QB/Superflex leagues. … Chuba Hubbard retook feature back duties from Miles Sanders in Week 13’s loss to the Bucs, out-touching Sanders 25 to 9 and out-snapping Sanders 47 to 23. Hubbard is a volume-based RB2 play at the Superdome; new OC Thomas Brown has favored Hubbard over Sanders when it comes to doling out backfield work. … Jonathan Mingo established season highs in targets (10) and receiving (6/69/0) in Carolina’s first post-Frank Reich game but still hasn’t cleared 70 yards or scored a touchdown all year. He did operate as the Panthers’ clear-cut No. 1 perimeter receiver, while D.J. Chark fell into a rotation with Mike Strachan on the other side. … Slot man Adam Thielen is scoreless since Week 6 and has been held to 42 yards or fewer in four of his last five appearances. Thielen appears to be hitting a late-season wall in his age-33 campaign. … With Hayden Hurst (concussion) ruled out again, the Panthers will presumably resort to a three-man TEBC involving Tommy Tremble, Ian Thomas, and Stephen Sullivan. No thanks.

Even after suffering his second concussion of the season in addition to shoulder and back injuries on last week’s devastating blow from Lions EDGE Bruce Irvin, Derek Carr cleared protocol and will start versus Carolina. Carr will do so without WR Michael Thomas (knee, I.R.) and WR Rashid Shaheed (thigh), while top WR Chris Olave (illness, questionable) was too sick to practice on Thursday and Friday, and TE Juwan Johnson’s (questionable, quad) status is unclear. Severely shorthanded, I’m not optimistic about Carr’s box-score outlook against Carolina’s underrated pass defense, which has surrendered the fewest fantasy QB points in the league. … OC Pete Carmichael’s Week 14 game plan should heavily revolve around Alvin Kamara versus a Panthers defense yielding the NFL’s third most fantasy points to running backs. Carolina is perhaps the NFL’s most extreme run funnel, while New Orleans’ receiver shortage should force more targets onto Kamara’s plate. And Kamara’s scoring projection gets a boost from Taysom Hill’s (foot/hand) expected absence. Kamara is shaping up as a DFS must-play. … A.T. Perry and Lynn Bowden logged the most snaps among Saints wideouts in Week 13’s loss to Detroit, but neither topped three targets. Olave remains New Orleans’ lone fantasy-playable wide receiver, yet his late-week illness underlines his risk.

Score Prediction: Saints 20, Panthers 16

 

 

Houston @ N.Y. Jets

Team Totals: Texans 18.5, Jets 15

On track to become the first rookie of the Super Bowl era to lead the NFL in passing yards, C.J. Stroud’s near-term outlook is nevertheless dicey on the road facing a top-five pass defense in what are expected to be inclement conditions in a game with a floor-level 33.5-point total while missing dynamic playmaker Tank Dell (broken ankle/fibula). I’m fading Stroud where possible in Week 14 lineup decisions. … His run game back to a sputtering state, OC Bobby Slowik appeared to deploy a “hot” hand Week 13 approach against Denver with Dameon Pierce returning to the top of the pecking order on 15 touches versus Devin Singletary’s nine. Dare Ogunbowale has resumed vulturing sporadic third-down snaps. I want no part of any member of this backfield in a Texans-Jets game environment that seems very likely to mute scoring.

Sans Dell, I’m expecting Nico Collins and Robert Woods to operate as Houston’s main outside receivers with Noah Brown in the slot and John Metchie mixing in as the No. 4. Despite Week 14’s brutal matchup against a Sauce Gardner-led Gang Green secondary yielding the fewest fantasy points in the league to wide receivers, I’m willing to dial up Collins as a WR3 considering Stroud’s to-date ability to elevate his teammates. … Woods hasn’t reached 45 receiving yards since Week 2. … Brown is the Texans’ preferred option in two-receiver sets over Woods and figures to kick inside when Houston goes three wide. He’s my second-favorite Texans wideout play here, and I think he can be a rest-of-season WR3 who rarely comes off the field. … Dalton Schultz (hamstring) is expected to miss one more game, giving Brevin Jordan another start after he logged a 75% snap rate in Week 13’s victory, securing 3/64/0 receiving on four targets. He had a drop for another would-be big gain but was very close to going off for 80+ yards against the Broncos. The Jets have surrendered the NFL’s 10th-most fantasy points to TEs.

The Jets are turning back to Zach Wilson after the predictable failure of their Tim Boyle-Trevor Siemian experiment. Fire up Houston’s D/ST. … Breece Hall (ankle) sounds likely to face Houston, even after missing most of the practice week. After HC Robert Saleh called out Hall for trying to break too many long runs (seriously), Dalvin Cook logged 10 touches in Week 13’s loss to the Falcons — Cook’s most since Week 3. Hall still wound up with 19 touches on 68% of Gang Green’s offensive snaps. I’m valuing Hall as a boom-busty RB2 play versus Houston and still ignoring Cook. … Undrafted rookie Xavier Gipson moved into the Jets’ No. 2 receiver role against the Falcons with Jason Brownlee working as No. 3 and Allen Lazard at No. 4. … Tyler Conklin continues to operate as New York’s lead tight end with Jeremy Ruckert at No. 2 and C.J. Uzomah (knee) sent to I.R. … The Jets’ lone fantasy-playable pass catcher remains Garrett Wilson, whom Zach has targeted 56 more times than any other member of the roster.

Score Prediction: Texans 14, Jets 13

 

 

L.A. Rams @ Baltimore

Team Totals: Ravens 23.5, Rams 16.5

The Rams have settled on Kyren Williams as their offensive focal point, restoring him as a 94% player on 24 touches in Week 13’s win over Cleveland. Week 14 opponent Baltimore has shown minimal box-score vulnerability to enemy backs, yet Williams has banked 15+ touches in seven of eight appearances this season and 20+ touches in four of his last five. Williams’ workload projections position him as an ignore-matchup RB1 at Baltimore. … 18th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring this season, Matthew Stafford now draws a Ravens defense yielding the NFL’s second-fewest fantasy QB points. Baltimore is yielding the NFL’s fewest yards per pass attempt (5.5) and leads the league in sacks (47). Stafford is just a QB2 dart.

Stafford’s 2023 targets: Puka Nacua 110; Tutu Atwell 54; Tyler Higbee 52; Cooper Kupp 47; Williams 35. … Nacua is expected to play through an AC joint shoulder sprain. Toughing out injuries all season, Nacua has nevertheless banked 100+ yards and/or a touchdown in seven of 12 games. Nacua would have gained 45 more rushing yards in last week’s win over Cleveland had a phantom Demarcus Robinson holding flag not negated the play. … Atwell has topped 31 receiving yards once since Week 3 and appears to be losing playing time to Robinson and Ben Skowronek behind Kupp and Nacua. … Higbee’s Week 14 status is unclear after Week 13’s neck stinger. Higbee’s direct backup appears to be Hunter Long. … Kupp has gone six straight games without clearing 50 receiving yards. I’ve downgraded him to a season-long WR3.

The Ravens return from Week 13’s bye with Lamar Jackson at full strength and LT Ronnie Stanley healthy on Jackson’s blindside after Stanley missed four early-season games. 15th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, the Rams present a middling Week 14 matchup but are at an obvious rest disadvantage visiting Baltimore, which hasn’t played since Nov. 26. The Rams last played on Dec. 3. … In their pre-bye Week 12 win over the Chargers, the Ravens promoted dynamic rookie Keaton Mitchell to lead back on a 46% snap rate and season-high 11 touches. Gus Edwards (26%, 9) and Justice Hill (28%, 5) kept it a three-man backfield, but there is a possibility Mitchell will make another move up the ladder following the open date. I’m still projecting Mitchell for no more than 13 touches but considering him flex playable against a Rams defense yielding the NFL’s fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Edwards is a low-floor, touchdown-dependent flex option with an ostensibly declining role.

Jackson’s 2023 target distribution: Zay Flowers 80; Odell Beckham 45; Rashod Bateman 35; Nelson Agholor 28; Justice Hill 18; Isaiah Likely 15; Edwards 11. … Positive-touchdown regression finally hit Flowers in Baltimore’s pre-bye victory over the Chargers; Jackson found Flowers for three yards out, and Flowers hit paydirt again on a 37-yard jet sweep. Completely dominating targets sans Mark Andrews (broken ankle) and now the centerpiece of Baltimore’s passing attack, Flowers is WR2 playable even against an overachieving Rams defense. … The Ravens have been shoehorning Bateman into their on-field No. 2 receiver role lately and using Beckham as a specialty No. 4, presumably in an effort to keep Beckham healthy. Despite increased playing time, Bateman hasn’t cleared 40 yards in a single game this season. Beckham has played 35% of the Ravens’ snaps or fewer in three straight contests. … I was very encouraged by Likely’s usage in Baltimore’s first post-Andrews game before the bye. Likely played 73% of the offensive snaps and led the Ravens in receiving (4/40/0). I’m firing up Likely with confidence against a Rams defense permitting the NFL’s third-most fantasy points to tight ends.

Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Rams 17

 

 

Minnesota @ Las Vegas

Team Totals: Vikings 21.5, Raiders 18.5

Objectively bad in back-to-back losses, Josh Dobbs comes off Week 13’s bye at risk of an in-game benching in favor of fellow journeyman Nick Mullens. Dobbs has committed six turnovers over his last two starts and fumbled six times in four starts as a Viking. He should have thrown five interceptions in Minnesota’s Week 12 pre-bye loss, only for Bears CB Jaylon Johnson to drop the surefire would-be pick-six. The Raiders have played better-than-average pass defense this year, holding enemy QBs to the NFL’s 10th-fewest fantasy points keyed by DPOY candidate Maxx Crosby. I think Las Vegas is a sneaky D/ST streamer here. Dobbs is a boom-bust QB2 option with one of the lowest quarterback floors on the slate. … Against the Bears, Alexander Mattison out-touched Ty Chandler 12 to 5 and out-snapped Chandler 31 to 18. Turning 10 carries into 52 yards, it was one of Mattison’s better performances of an otherwise brutal season. The Raiders have allowed the league’s seventh-most fantasy points to running backs. Mattison remains a risky, largely touchdown-dependent RB2/flex option.

Justin Jefferson (hamstring) fully participated in practice all week and looks to be all systems go at Vegas, where he’ll avoid weather concerns and return as the obvious focal point of a well-oiled Vikings passing offense that has stayed productive amid heavy quarterback turnover. … With Jefferson in the lineup in Weeks 1-5, Jordan Addison averaged under six targets for 4/50/0 receiving and lived on TD scoring with three paydirt trips in five games. I’m valuing him as a fringe WR3/flex option here. … The Raiders have allowed the NFL’s 10th-most catches (65) to tight ends, while T.J. Hockenson was fantasy’s overall TE3 with Jefferson healthy early in the year. … With Jefferson back in the lineup, K.J. Osborn will move back into his No. 3 receiver role with Brandon Powell at No. 4 and No. 2 TE Josh Oliver also likely demoted.

Through six 2023 appearances (five starts), Aidan O’Connell has yet to reach 14 fantasy points in any of them. Look for Vikings DC Brian Flores to blitz O’Connell at an extremely high rate. … In the Raiders’ pre-bye Week 12 loss to K.C., Josh Jacobs turned 24 touches into 125 yards highlighted by Jacobs literally tossing Chiefs S Mike Edwards out of the way on a 63-yard scoring run. Jacobs is averaging 23.5 touches in four games since Antonio Pierce took over as interim head coach. The Vikings have played stout run defense all year, but Jacobs’ consistently mammoth workloads entrench him as an elite fantasy RB1. … The results have been a roller coaster, but O’Connell has targeted Davante Adams 28 more times than any other Raider, and Adams’ target share on O’Connell’s throws is a lofty 31%. I’m getting on volume, Adams’ talent, and a possibly underrated game environment here. … Jakobi Meyers has 50 yards or fewer in five of his last six games. … Michael Mayer has settled in as a mid-range to low-end TE2 down the stretch of his rookie season. He’s played 80% or more of the Raiders’ offensive snaps in five straight games but has cleared 50 yards once all year and scored just once.

Score Prediction: Vikings 24, Raiders 21

 

 

Seattle @ San Francisco

Team Totals: 49ers 28.5, Seahawks 17.5

Added to the injury report on Thursday, Geno Smith (groin) reencounters a 49ers defense that shredded Seattle’s offense – in Seattle – when these teams met in Week 12. Smith was pummeled for 12 hits and six sacks by San Francisco’s relentless front and didn’t lead a single touchdown drive. Especially after the Seahawks signed Sean Mannion off their practice squad as insurance, Smith isn’t on the Week 14 QB1 map. Drew Lock is Geno’s backup. … Kenneth Walker (oblique) and Zach Charbonnet (knee) are both questionable to face San Francisco. Both sound like game-time decisions with passing-down role player DeeJay Dallas and seventh-round rookie Kenny McIntosh next in line for work. The matchup is brutal regardless; only the Eagles are allowing fewer fantasy RB points than the Niners. … I’m fading Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf where possible in light of Geno’s suspect health. In Week 12, both Metcalf (3/32/0) and Lockett (3/30/0) were stymied by San Francisco. 49ers CB Charvarius Ward put shadow clamps on Metcalf. … Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the Seahawks in receiving in that game but only came away with a 2/41/0 stat line on three targets. JSN still hasn’t cleared 65 yards in a game all season.

Arguably the NFL’s hottest passer entering Week 14, Brock Purdy has completed 74% of his passes with an 11:1 TD-to-INT ratio and 10.7 yards-per-attempt average over San Francisco’s last four games. Purdy is fantasy’s overall QB2 behind only Dak Prescott during that span. With his supporting cast at full strength, Purdy is a matchup-agnostic, every-week QB1. … Christian McCaffrey is to 2023 running backs as Travis Kelce was to last year’s tight ends, simply lapping the field and creating a colossal positional advantage. Sans Elijah Mitchell (knee, doubtful), CMC looks like a jam-it-in proposition in DFS. When these teams met in Week 12, McCaffrey tormented Seattle’s defense for 139 yards and two scores on 24 touches.

Purdy’s 2023 targets: Brandon Aiyuk 72; George Kittle 67; McCaffrey 60; Deebo Samuel 53; Jauan Jennings 30. … Still leading the Niners in targets, yards (927), touchdowns (6), and first-down conversions (43) on Purdy’s throws, Aiyuk is a WR2 with WR1 upside against a Seahawks defense giving up the NFL’s eighth most fantasy WR points. … Kittle’s consistency becomes shaky whenever the 49ers’ weaponry is at full strength, but there are only three tight ends I’d consider playing over him this week: Travis Kelce (vs. BUF), Sam LaPorta (@ CHI), and T.J. Hockenson (@ LVR). … Deebo led San Francisco in receiving (7/79/0) in Week 12, adding 4/15/1 on the ground. I would play Samuel over Aiyuk here if forced to pick one.

Score Prediction: 49ers 35, Seahawks 10

 

 

Buffalo @ Kansas City

Team Totals: Chiefs 25, Bills 24

Their offense on fire in two games since dismissing OC Ken Dorsey, the Bills come off their bye after lighting up the Jets for 32 points in Week 11 and the Eagles for 34 in Week 12. By far, Josh Allen had his biggest rushing day of the season against Philly (9/81/2) while once again embracing putting the team on his back. While no metrics support visiting Arrowhead as a favorable matchup, it was at least comforting to see Jordan Love pick apart DC Steve Spagnuolo’s defense for Week 13’s overall QB7 fantasy finish. Allen is a top-three QB1 play every week. … The Bills’ Week 12 scoring output against Philadelphia could have been even bigger had James Cook not dropped a surefire 30-yard receiving touchdown early in the game. Such mistakes have sporadically cost Cook playing time over the course of the year. He wound up playing one fewer snap and running six fewer pass routes than Latavius Murray in Buffalo’s pre-bye loss. The Bills have also incorporated Ty Johnson since promoting Joe Brady to play-caller, while running Allen more. I’m fading this backfield in an underwhelming road matchup against the stingy Chiefs.

Stefon Diggs’ production has slowed since his white-hot start to the season, but he’s still drawn 19 targets in the Bills’ last two games, while the increased productivity of his teammates should wind up benefiting Diggs. For what it’s worth, Diggs has faced Spags’ defense five times since joining Buffalo. His results have disappointed: 6/46/1, 2/69/0, 10/148/1, 6/77/0, and 3/7/0. And this year’s version of the Chiefs’ defense is better than any of those Diggs previously faced. … While Gabe Davis shredded the Eagles in the Bills’ last game, it’s notable that he finished catchless in two of Buffalo’s prior three contests and has been a boom-bust producer all year. That’s how I’m continuing to value him at K.C. … Dawson Knox (wrist) is expected to return at Arrowhead after a full practice week, and his presence in the lineup has pretty major implications. The Bills began the year as the NFL’s heaviest two-tight end, “12 personnel” team. When Knox went down, Dalton Kincaid’s development was accelerated into every-week fantasy TE1 range, and Khalil Shakir became a big-time contributor in the slot. Knox’s return could cut sharply into both Kincaid and Shakir’s snaps. Ideally, we would treat this as a wait-and-see week.

Patrick Mahomes enters Week 14 missing LT Donovan Smith (neck) and surging RB Isiah Pacheco (shoulder), whose absence could force more onto Mahomes’ plate. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon are fairly significant downgrades, especially considering Pacheco’s play over K.C.’s last five games (76/360/3 rushing, 4.7 YPC, and 12 catches). Surrounded by poor receiver play and worse pass pro, Mahomes has cleared 21 fantasy points just once in his last nine starts. I’m still treating Mahomes as a mid-range QB1 starter against Buffalo’s injury-wrecked defense. … I’m expecting the Chiefs to field a two-man RBBC featuring CEH and McKinnon against the Bills. To this point in the season, Edwards-Helaire has handled 47 touches to McKinnon’s 32, although McKinnon (212) has nearly doubled CEH (114) in snaps. Ultimately, I’m settling on valuing CEH and McKinnon nearly equally as passable flex plays versus Buffalo.

Rashee Rice banked a season-high 69% snap rate in Week 13’s loss to the Packers while leading Kansas City in targets (9) and catches (8). Although he’s not quite a full-time player yet, Rice has deservedly taken over as the Chiefs’ No. 1 wide receiver while commanding a combined 19 targets over the past two weeks. He’s an every-week WR2/3. … Travis Kelce’s box-score results are way down from last year, but he’s still topped 80 yards and/or scored a touchdown in three straight contests and is fantasy’s overall TE1 in per-game scoring on the season. … The likes of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson, and Skyy Moore remain unusable fantasy options. None of them exceeded five targets against the Packers.

Score Prediction: Bills 24, Chiefs 23

 

 

Denver @ L.A. Chargers

Team Totals: Chargers 23, Broncos 21

A fantasy overachiever all season by way of his astronomical 6.1% TD Rate, Russell Wilson has picked it up lately as a runner to a floor- and ceiling-raising extent with eight or more rushing attempts in four of his last five starts. Week 14 opponent L.A. has coughed up the NFL’s third-most yards per pass attempt (7.8) and fourth-most fantasy quarterback points. I’m infrequently a Russ proponent, but the metrics all add up here. He’s a strong QB1 play in ideal weather conditions at SoFi Stadium. … Javonte Williams continued to convincingly pace Denver’s Week 13 backfield against the Texans, logging 16 touches on a 65% playing-time clip. Jaleel McLaughlin (6 touches) and Samaje Perine (3) took clear backseats in a back-and-forth affair. This game’s sub-three-point spread suggests Broncos-Bolts will similarly see neutral script, allowing Denver to lean on Williams, who is averaging 20.5 touches over his last six games. Perine (knee, questionable) didn’t practice on Friday, suggesting Williams could pick up extra pass-down snaps.

My favorite Week 14 DFS stack partner for Wilson is Courtland Sutton, who the Broncos went out of their way to target downfield in last week’s defeat. Two early-game deep shots to Sutton fell incomplete, but he rebounded with a 45-yard touchdown grab and a 32-yarder deep down the middle in the second half. Only the Eagles and Commanders have allowed more fantasy WR points than the Chargers. … This is an on-paper breakout spot for Jerry Jeudy, who hasn’t cleared 65 yards since Week 3 and has hit paydirt once all season despite Wilson’s 21 touchdown passes, seventh most in the league. I like Jeudy as a matchup-driven WR3/flex play this week. … The Broncos’ three-way rotation at No. 3 receiver involving Marvin Mims, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, and Brandon Johnson mutes any of their individual fantasy appeal.

Unscathed after consecutive brutal matchups versus Baltimore and at New England, Justin Herbert is primed for a bounce-back spot at home against Denver. The Broncos are allowing the NFL’s fourth-most yards per pass attempt (7.7), sixth-highest completion rate (68%), and eighth-most fantasy QB points. … Reports of the Chargers contemplating shaking up their running back distribution also bode positively for Herbert in the sense that this team is acknowledging it can’t run the ball and is going to have to resort to the pass for HC Brandon Staley to save his job. Austin Ekeler is averaging under 3.0 yards per carry since returning from his Week 1 high ankle sprain. Feeding Ekeler through the air as opposed to on the ground would make sense, especially against a Broncos defense that’s allowed the league’s sixth-most catches (66) and eighth-most receiving yards (473) to RBs. Josh Kelley is still worth a season-long bench stash.

Against the Patriots, the Bolts reinstalled a defined three-receiver package of Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, and Jalen Guyton with Adam Erickson reduced to No. 4. Josh Palmer (knee) was designated for I.R. return this week but won’t face Denver. … Because Allen moves around so much — he plays slot 55% of the time and outside on the other 45% of his snaps — he should be able to avoid Patrick Surtain on at least half of Week 14’s offensive downs. In a potentially sneaky shootout game, Allen offers lofty target upside as usual. … Johnston may actually face more risk of getting caught on Surtain Island than Allen based on the disappointing rookie’s minuscule 15% slot-route rate. Johnston is a boom-bust WR3/flex option who’s yet to boom. … Perimeter decoy Guyton has finished with five yards or fewer in three of his four 2023 appearances. … With both Gerald Everett and Donald Parham healthy in last week’s win over the Pats, they shared usage on a near-exact 50/50 basis. They’re both touchdown-or-bust dart throws.

Score Prediction: Chargers 27, Broncos 24

 

 

Sunday Night Football

Philadelphia @ Dallas

Team Totals: Cowboys 27.5, Eagles 24

The Eagles and Cowboys meet again after their Week 9 date in Philly produced a 28-23 result in favor of the defending NFC champs. Jalen Hurts tagged Dallas for that week’s QB4 fantasy score, while the Eagles enter Sunday night’s rematch without a single player on Week 14’s injury report. Fantasy’s QB2 behind only Josh Allen, Hurts now faces a Dallas defense Geno Smith dusted for last week’s overall QB1 finish. … D’Andre Swift didn’t even appear on Friday’s injury report after getting lit up on a late-game checkdown in last Sunday’s loss to San Francisco. Swift should be all systems go at Dallas. With 15 or more touches in 10 of his last 11 games, Swift belongs stapled into lineups as a fringe RB1/2. He touched the ball 20 times in these clubs’ Week 9 meeting. No. 2 back Kenneth Gainwell hasn’t topped eight touches since Week 2.

Dallas Goedert’s (arm) return significantly upgrades Hurts’ supporting cast by demoting blocking TE Jack Stoll from relevance and pushing Nos. 3-5 WRs Julio Jones, Quez Watkins, and Olamide Zaccheaus into bit roles. Goedert was fantasy’s overall TE8 before going down in Week 9. … A.J. Brown has faced Dallas three times since arriving from Tennessee, banking stat lines against the Cowboys of 7/66/1, 5/67/1, and 6/103/0. … DeVonta Smith’s corresponding receiving lines were 3/51/1, 8/113/2, and 5/44/1. Brown is an obvious every-week WR1, and Smith has earned himself similar distinction regardless of opposition. … I would side with Watkins if forced to pick a single-game DFS tournament sleeper behind the big-timers. Watkins runs 4.37 and severely out-snapped both Jones and Zaccheaus in Week 13’s loss to the Niners.

Dak Prescott encounters in Week 14 an Eagles defense that conceded fantasy finishes of QB2 (Brock Purdy), QB1 (Josh Allen), QB15 (Patrick Mahomes), QB2 (Dak himself), and QB1 (Sam Howell) over its last five games. At home this season, the Cowboys have posted scoring totals of 41, 45, 49, 43, 38, and 30, while Philadelphia has coughed up the most fantasy points in the league to quarterbacks. This is a massive opportunity for Prescott’s MVP candidacy in a plum spot against a division rival in a primetime game everyone will be watching. … Tony Pollard’s 23 touches in Week 13’s win over Seattle were his most since Week 3, and Pollard’s 78% snap rate was his highest since Week 6. Last week, 49ers running backs tagged Philly for 146 total yards and a touchdown. On the season, however, the Eagles have given up the league’s fewest fantasy points to RBs, and they held Pollard to 63 scoreless yards in Week 9.

CeeDee Lamb ethered this same Philly secondary for 11/191/0 receiving in Week 9 and over his last seven appearances is averaging a stat line of 9/118/1 on 12.3 targets per game. The Eagles have given up league highs in catches (193) and touchdowns (23) to enemy wideouts. … On fire over the last month, Brandin Cooks has secured 20 of 23 targets (87%) for 332 yards (16.6 YPR) and three TDs in Dallas’ last four games. Cooks played a season-high 90% of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps in Week 13. Cooks has earned WR2 valuation ahead of SNF based on matchup and recent production. … Jake Ferguson clapped the Eagles for 7/91/1 in these clubs’ Week 9 meeting, while Philly has surrendered the NFL’s 10th-most fantasy tight end points on the year. I’m locking in Ferguson as a priority TE1 on Sunday Night Football. … Michael Gallup’s playing time has been cut to the point where he’s unplayable even in single-game DFS scenarios. Gallup went catchless in Week 13’s win over Seattle and continues to rotate with Jalen Tolbert.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 30, Eagles 27

 

 

Monday Night Football Doubleheader

Tennessee @ Miami

Team Totals: Dolphins 29.5, Titans 16.5

Because DFS sites offer two-game, Monday-only tournaments, I’ll be treating Titans-Fins and Packers-Giants as a sort of mini-Thanksgiving slate. … Miami’s D/ST projects well against Will Levis, who’s being forced to drop back behind the NFL’s worst offensive line and has taken at least four sacks in three of his last five starts. Individually, Levis has reached 14 fantasy points in just one of six appearances. He’s my No. 4 quarterback behind Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love, and Tommy DeVito on Monday-only slates. … Tyjae Spears is a MNF-only sleeper as Tennessee’s go-to back when the Titans fall behind. In wins, Spears is averaging 6.8 touches per game. In losses, 9.0. Sitting on a combined 39/178/4 (4.6 YPC) rushing line over the past two weeks, Derrick Henry needs to be teed up in all season-long leagues after being cleared from concussion protocol. But Spears is the preferred price- and script-based bet in one-day DFS. Spears’ matchup is enhanced by Miami’s loss of Jerome Baker (MCL), the Fins’ top coverage linebacker.

Levis’ 2023 target distribution: DeAndre Hopkins 48; Chig Okonkwo 28; Spears 26; Kyle Philips and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 16; Henry 15; Chris Moore 12; Josh Whyle 11. … Averaging a ho-hum 4/54/0.4 stat line over Tennessee’s last five games, Hopkins has regressed into a low-ceiling WR2/3 option as part of the Titans’ work-in-progress passing offense. The Dolphins have posed a middling matchup for enemy wideouts, while Fins top CB Xavien Howard has the size and physicality to give Hopkins fits. … A drop-prone mess for most of the season, Okonkwo has come on over his last two games with a combined stat line of 7/107/0 on 11 targets. He’s still been reduced to a receiving tight end as opposed to a full-time player. … In Week 13’s loss, the Titans trotted out Westbrook-Ikhine and Moore alongside Hopkins in three-receiver sets. Burks played only 10 snaps against the Colts. Slot man Philips was a surprise healthy scratch. I’m siding with Westbrook-Ikhine if forced to pick from Titans complementary pass catchers.

This is another eruption spot for Miami’s offense at home against a Titans defense missing All-Pro DT Jeffery Simmons (knee) and top CB Kristian Fulton (hamstring). Tennessee has yielded the NFL’s sixth-most yards per pass attempt (7.6), while Tua Tagovailoa’s 8.6 YPA clip ranks second in the league behind only Brock Purdy. I’m firing up Tua with confidence in such a positive Week 14 spot. … Raheem Mostert opened Week 13’s destruction of Washington as Miami’s clear-cut lead back, finishing with 51 yards and a touchdown on 12 touches. Yet De’Von Achane took control in the second half, out-snapping Mostert 23 to 4 over the final two quarters en route to a career-high 20 touches. Achane has played five snaps or more in four 2023 games. In them, he’s delivered 233 total yards and four touchdowns (Week 3, Broncos), 120 yards and two TDs (Week 4, Bills), 165 yards and one TD (Week 5, Giants), and 103 yards with two TDs (Week 13, Commanders). I’m valuing both Mostert and Achane as RB1 starters against Tennessee and planning to play both in the same lineup on Monday-only DFS tournament slates.

Tua’s 2023 target distribution: Tyreek Hill 127; Jaylen Waddle 83; Mostert 28; Braxton Berrios 26; Durham Smythe 25; Cedrick Wilson 19; Achane 15. … Hill has nearly 300 more receiving yards than any other NFL player this season and is on pace for 2,098, which would best Calvin Johnson’s NFL record of 1,964 yards. Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel seems to be proactively working to get Hill his 2,000-yard goal. … Waddle has drawn eight targets in three straight games, while Tennessee has yielded the NFL’s seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers. … Smythe is Miami’s only other mildly intriguing prospect on Monday-only DFS slates, yet Smythe hasn’t topped three targets in an individual game since Week 4.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 30, Titans 13