Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 8

Thursday Night Football

Tampa Bay @ Buffalo

Team Totals: Bills 25, Bucs 17

Their offense back sputtering, the Bucs managed point totals of 6 (vs. DET) and 13 (vs. ATL) in their last two games. Baker Mayfield has dipped to 17th among quarterbacks in per-game fantasy points and will play through a knee injury that limited his practice participation this week. The good news is Tampa is catching Buffalo’s defense at a severe personnel disadvantage; the Bills are missing NT DaQuan Jones (torn pec, I.R.) while fellow DTs Ed Oliver (toe) and Jordan Phillips (back) are questionable. In Tremaine Edmunds (free agent, Bears) and Matt Milano (broken leg, I.R.), Buffalo has lost both starting inside linebackers since the end of last year. Top CB Tre’Davious White (Achilles) is out for the season. EDGE Von Miller (knee) has played 12% of the team’s to-date defensive snaps. There is an opportunity here for Tampa Bay to outkick offensive projections, but I’m still viewing Mayfield as a two-QB/Superflex option only, especially in a week with zero teams on bye. … Averaging a paltry 3.2 yards per carry behind an offensive line that ranks 32nd in ESPN’s run-blocking win rate, Rachaad White lost 25% of Tampa Bay’s backfield snaps to Ke’Shawn Vaughn in Week 7 and on a short week risks losing even more to Chase Edmonds (knee), who was activated from I.R. after a full practice week. Yet Buffalo’s decimated defense has been clipped for the NFL’s 10th-most fantasy points by enemy running backs, including 4.9 yards per carry. White is a passable RB2/flex.

UPDATE: Baker Mayfield (knee) and Chris Godwin (neck) both participated fully in Wednesday’s practice and should be all systems go against the Bills.

Mayfield’s Weeks 1-7 target distribution: Mike Evans and Chris Godwin 49; White and Cade Otton 23; Deven Thompkins 18 and Trey Palmer 17; Vaughn 4. … Evans has accounted for 70 more yards and four more touchdowns than Godwin on the same number of targets, while Godwin is dealing with a neck injury on a short week. Still commanding extreme opportunity and playing at an exceptionally high level at age 30, Evans ranks No. 13 in the NFL in Air Yards share (39%) and No. 8 in yards per route run (2.6). He’s a surefire WR1 starter. … Godwin did resume practicing early in the week and should be near all systems go. Godwin still leads the Bucs in both catches (33) and first-down gains (22) on Baker’s throws. Godwin’s game is similar to that of Kendrick Bourne, who went for 6/63/1 receiving against Buffalo last week. … Little pops out about Otton’s Week 8 draw, yet he’s efficiently secured 78% of his targets from Mayfield and is playing 97% of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps. I love Otton as a single-game DFS play. … 6-foot, 192-pound, 4.33 burner Palmer continues to run well ahead of Thompkins as the Bucs’ No. 3 wide receiver. Palmer is a justifiable one-game DFS-slate dice roll against Buffalo’s depleted pass defense.

Plagued by painfully slow starts, hit-or-miss offensive line play, and their ongoing struggle to establish a sustained identity, the Bills limp into Thursday night’s affair having lost two of their last three with a 5-point victory over the lowly Giants sandwiched in between. Josh Allen remains fantasy’s overall QB1, while the Bucs have permitted the NFL’s 10th-most fantasy quarterback points. His rushing contributions held back by scheme to this point, this would be an opportune time for the Bills to resume leaning on Allen’s legs in an effort to kickstart Buffalo’s offense. (Allen averaged 7.0 rushing attempts per game over the prior four seasons; he’s down to 4.1 this year.) I did bet the over on this game’s total and anticipate Buffalo being a rest-of-season shootout team due to their defensive losses. … James Cook’s matchup would improve should Bucs NT Vita Vea (groin) sit; Vea didn’t practice at all this week. Cook enters Week 8 averaging 15 touches for 86.4 yards per game. … With Damien Harris (neck/concussion) on I.R., Latavius Murray is safely Buffalo’s No. 2 back. Murray managed six touches in Week 7’s loss to New England but played only five fewer snaps than Cook and has handled six carries inside the opposing 5-yard line on the season compared to Cook’s two. Murray is a touchdown-driven gamble on single-game DFS slates.

Allen’s 2023 targets: Stefon Diggs 78; Gabe Davis 35; Dawson Knox 28; Dalton Kincaid 27; Cook 21; Deonte Harty 16; Murray 10; Khalil Shakir 9; Trent Sherfield 8. … Diggs enters Week 8 ranked No. 2 among NFL wide receivers in targets, No. 2 in catches (55), No. 4 in yards (678), and No. 2 in TDs (6). His matchup is no pushover against physical Bucs press-coverage CBs Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis, although Diggs’ extreme-volume role and unbendable rapport with Allen keep him matchup-proof. … As boom-bust as ever, Davis has 90+ yards and a touchdown in two of seven games but 35 yards or below in four of seven. This does not stand out as a friendly matchup for Davis, but he makes plenty of sense as a single-game DFS tournament bet. … The seas have parted for Kincaid to go off in the year’s second half. Knox (wrist surgery) is out indefinitely. Underrated No. 3 TE Quintin Morris (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday night. Coming off Week 7’s breakout (8/75/0 receiving on eight targets), Kincaid is a locked-in TE1 play. … Harty, Shakir, and Sherfield continue to rotate in Buffalo’s No. 3 receiver role, yet I’m siding with Shakir as the best TNF sleeper. I anticipate the Bills using more three-wide “11 personnel” sets due to their tight end shortage, and Shakir’s 62% slot snap rate is the highest of the complementary group to play between Diggs and Davis. Shakir also ran twice as many Week 7 pass routes (20) as Harty (10) and Sherfield (10).

Score Prediction: Bills 30, Bucs 20

L.A. Rams @ Dallas

Team Totals: Cowboys 26, Rams 19

Even while Matthew Stafford has played like a legitimate top-10 real-life quarterback, he’s yet to exceed 17.2 standard-scoring fantasy points in an individual start, and enters Week 8 ranked 20th in per-game QB scoring. Fresh off its bye, Dallas is allowing the league’s seventh-fewest fantasy points to signal-callers. … Darrell Henderson operated as L.A.’s Week 7 lead back versus Pittsburgh, out-snapping Royce Freeman 39 to 29 and out-touching him 19 to 12. Rookie Zach Evans didn’t play at all. I expect a similar usage distribution at Dallas, which has yielded the NFL’s ninth-fewest fantasy running back points. … A certified every-week WR1 even with Cooper Kupp back healthy, Puka Nacua ranks No. 6 in the league in yards per route run (2.7) and has a higher target share (33%) than Kupp (28%) over the past three weeks. … Tutu Atwell reeled in a 31-yard scoring bomb from Stafford against the Steelers on a pass that looked like it was intended for Kupp. Atwell’s target share is a microscopic 9% since Kupp’s return. … Missing ILB Leighton Vander Esch (neck, I.R.) in the middle of the field, the Cowboys have surrendered the NFL’s seventh-most fantasy tight end points. Tyler Higbee’s 35 targets rank 10th in the league at his position.

Just 21st in fantasy quarterback points per game, Dak Prescott comes off Dallas’ bye playing at a ho-hum QB2 level due to his sharp decline in rushing productivity and the Cowboys’ disappointing passing game. Dak’s Week 8 matchup is middling across the board; the Rams rank 16th in yards per attempt allowed (6.4) and 18th in fantasy QB points surrendered. … Tony Pollard’s draw also doesn’t stand out, although he’s set up for a volume spike as Dallas’ unchallenged lead back on a team favored by nearly a touchdown at home. I’m interested in buying Pollard aggressively at this point in the season. His bye is out of the way, the Cowboys have shown no inclination toward bringing in competition, and Dallas’ offensive line is finally near full strength after LT Tyron Smith, LG Tyler Smith, C Tyler Biadasz, and RG Zack Martin all missed early-season snaps due to injury. Pollard’s role and talent are both league-winning.