Fantasy Fallout: Alvin Kamara Accepts Plea Deal and Awaits League Discipline

Alvin Kamara has agreed to a plea deal and will accept a misdemeanor charge of Breach of Peace for an incident that occurred during Pro Bowl weekend in 2022. What has turned into more than a year-long saga appears to be nearing a final resolution, as the only remaining question is if and how long Roger Goodell will suspend Kamara.

League rules dictate that violations involving criminal assault or battery mandate a minimum of a six-game suspension, so Kamara accepting a misdemeanor charge introduces the possibility of a shorter suspension. Footballguys’ Drew Davenport — who is also a practicing criminal defense attorney — explained his take on the Kamara case and why he guesses the Saints’ RB1 will miss four games.

We also have Kamara missing four games in our projections, but we acknowledge that there is a lot of uncertainty and a wide range of outcomes here. Today, we’ll break down where Kamara would land in our rankings if his suspension is zero, two, four, or six games and discuss how to treat him in fantasy. Note that these are all ballpark projections that could differ slightly once we get real news.

IF KAMARA DOESN’T GET SUSPENDED

Ranking: RB23 on Underdog, 71st overall

• Even if Kamara avoids suspension, there are reasons to be concerned about his profile heading into 2023. He’s about to turn 28 years old and is coming off a season in which the Saints turned to Mark Ingram and David Johnson on passing downs. Kamara limped down the stretch with five targets over his final five games, although he did notch 18.4 carries per game during that span. The decision to turn Kamara into a two-down grinder was frankly baffling but demonstrates his floor if he falls out of the coaching staff’s good graces.
• The Saints also added 2022 rushing TD leader Jamaal Williams in free agency and drafted TCU RB Kendre Miller in the third round of the NFL Draft. Between the two new additions and Taysom Hill, Kamara has ample competition for touches, especially near the goal line. Hill out-carried Kamara 12-8 inside the 10-yard line in 2022 (Kamara had a 4-3 edge from inside the 5). Receiving volume and goal-line touches are how RBs score most of their fantasy points, and Kamara may not have an iron grip on either role.
• Even if he avoids suspension, Kamara would likely land in low-end RB2 territory in our rankings.
• No suspension for Kamara would be suboptimal for Miller, who has the most to gain from a Kamara suspension considering he may barely see the field in Week 1 if the two veterans ahead of him are available. It’s a long season and Kamara’s decreased passing-game usage in the second half of the year inspires hope that Miller could outright win the job sometime during the season, but missing the opportunity to flash his ability right away would hurt. Williams would still have some standalone role if Kamara plays Week 1, but he would be a competent fantasy starter and intriguing Zero RB piece if his backfield mate gets suspended.

IF KAMARA GETS A TWO-GAME SUSPENSION

Ranking: RB24 on Underdog, 81st overall

• In the grand scheme of a fantasy season, two games is a slap on the wrist. Williams would be a serviceable RB2 for the first two games of the year, but that’s probably not enough time for either him or Miller to challenge Kamara for the Week 3 lead role. Once Kamara is back from his two games, we’d expect him to take over as the primary with Williams as a complementary back for rushing downs and short-yardage duties and Miller rotating in too (sparingly at first). Still, it’s not like Kamara is an auto-smash once he’s back for the reasons mentioned above, so we only have him as a seventh-rounder in this scenario.

IF KAMARA GETS A FOUR-GAME SUSPENSION

Ranking: RB30 on Underdog, 99th overall

• The longer suspensions are where it becomes important to think through what format you’re playing. We only have one set of rankings per site, but Kamara’s value if he gets a four-game suspension is drastically different in Best Ball Mania IV vs. a cash league. In the latter, missing four games for a player who’s likely a passable RB2 when available may be a death blow. In BBM4 where the playoff weeks are almost all that matters, missing Weeks 1-4 (or 1-6) isn’t the end of the world, and any team that advances with Kamara would actually have some leverage on the field if he goes off in Weeks 15-17.
• Jamaal Williams would flirt with must-start status over the first four weeks if Kamara misses. Game script shouldn’t be a concern against the Titans, Panthers, Packers, and Buccaneers. Williams vs. Hill for the goal-line role is a battle to watch in training camp, as Williams doesn’t have a strong pass-catching history and needs the short-yardage role for a path to spike weeks.
• Miller would slot in as New Orleans’ RB2 early in the season and could earn a larger role moving forward if he performs well. He probably wouldn’t be fantasy-relevant in Weeks 1-4, but the opportunity to prove himself as a capable option right away could prove monumental down the stretch.

IF KAMARA GETS A SIX-GAME SUSPENSION

Ranking: RB35 on Underdog, 111th overall

• As described above, considering the specific format you’re playing and how much the playoff weeks matter is critical if he gets six games. It’s also worth noting that the longer the suspension, the more time there is for Williams or Miller to assert themselves as someone that deserves a sizable role every week. In the event of a six-game suspension, we’d still project Kamara for ~12-13 carries and a few targets per game. He’d be a low-end RB3 for season-long purposes but would re-enter fringe RB2 territory once available if both Williams/Miller are healthy.
• Williams would be a solid RB2 for the first six weeks if Kamara misses time, while Miller would have enough time to prove he deserves a weekly role. Both players would move up noticeably in our rankings if Kamara is out six games. However, things seem to be trending toward less discipline now that Kamara has taken the plea deal.