As expected, the Bears made Caleb Williams the first overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft on Thursday. Williams has been viewed as the star of this draft since his freshman season at Oklahoma, and he lived up to those expectations with a Heisman Trophy in 2022 and another absurdly efficient season as a junior.
CALEB WILLIAMS
Projection: 348.7 completions on 544.0 attempts for 3,876.1 yards, 20.1 TDs, and 15.2 interceptions. 77.0 carries for 461.7 yards and 3.9 TDs.
- A little secret: We have been projecting Williams as the Bears’ QB1 for more than a month. Every other rookie in the class is being projected as a free agent (our standard process for rookies pre-draft). Because of that, nothing will change with our Williams projection.
- We have Williams as the immediate 17-game starter in Chicago. He’s the best quarterback prospect of the past few drafts, and his ability to create plays out of structure has drawn Patrick Mahomes comparisons. Williams is a heavy underdog to ever approach Mahomes’ level, but the sky is the limit for the 22-year-old. His productivity early in college bodes well for his success in the pros, and his rushing ability (824 yards over his first two college seasons before notching a still-respectable 142 in 2023) gives him high-level fantasy upside.
- In Anthony Amico’s prospect profile, he pointed out that scouts believe Williams could improve at sack and turnover avoidance, but there’s no questioning he’s an elite QB prospect who will be fantasy-relevant from Day 1. Williams is being drafted as a fringe QB1 in best ball right now, and that shouldn’t change after he was drafted exactly where everyone knew he would be.
D.J. MOORE
- Since we’ve had Williams projected as the Bears’ quarterback for so long, Moore’s projection and ranking won’t change either, and this is clearly a huge upgrade over anything he’s had before in his career. Moore ascended into the WR1 space with 96 catches, 1,364 yards, and eight touchdowns – all career-highs – last season and will look to build off that as the unquestioned alpha wideout for a star rookie quarterback. Chicago traded scraps for an aging Keenan Allen last month, and the former Charger presents better target competition than anything DJM dealt with in 2023, but Allen turns 32 years old in two days and likely operates primarily underneath, freeing Moore to operate all over the field.
- The Bears ranked 27th in Pass Rate Over Expectation (-4.6%) last year. With Williams under center instead of Justin Fields, we should see a more balanced attack. Moore’s target share may fall with Allen at WR2 rather than Darnell Mooney, but that could be offset by more team pass attempts.
- Moore remains a rock-solid WR2 in fantasy. Behind Moore and Allen, the Bears currently have Tyler Scott at WR3. We’ll see if they add another receiver during the draft. Regardless, Moore is in for another monster season.
OTHER BEARS PLAYERS
- Keenan Allen earned 0.30 targets per route run and 8.3 yards per target last season. That’s impressive for a 31-year-old, and he should remain relevant as Chicago’s WR2. We discussed Allen’s fantasy outlook more in-depth when he was traded last month.
- As mentioned above, Tyler Scott is the Bears’ WR3 right now, but they could still draft or sign someone, so it’s hard to be confident he holds that spot through camp. If it gets to late summer and he’s still WR3 on the depth chart, he becomes a somewhat interesting dart throw, but his hold on the job seems spotty right now and he wasn’t particularly good as a rookie. Chicago also has two competent tight ends in Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett, so they could run a lot of 2-TE sets. Shane Waldron used three TEs (Noah Fant, Will Dissly, Colby Parkinson) pretty frequently in Seattle, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him bring that philosophy to Chicago.
