With Rashee Rice out for the year, the Chiefs were widely rumored to be looking for a wide receiver before the deadline. On Wednesday morning, they made their move, shipping a Day 3 pick to Tennessee for DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins will immediately assume WR1 duties for Kansas City. Let’s break down this trade from a fantasy perspective:
DEANDRE HOPKINS
- The Chiefs reportedly hope to have Hopkins ready for Week 8. Even if he plays, we’re not expecting a full role. Amari Cooper just ran a route on 34% of Bills dropbacks in his post-trade debut, and Hopkins has one less day to prepare than Cooper did (Cooper was traded on Tuesday). Still, Hopkins likely has a high TPRR when on the field, but it’ll be hard to trust him fantasy-wise in Week 8 with such little preparation time unless we hear news that he’s good to go.
- Hopkins hasn’t been 100% this year after an offseason knee injury. His route rate dropped from 67% in Week 6 to 51% in Week 7, and it was noted after the game that he was experiencing lower leg soreness in his calf/Achilles area. Hopkins has been efficient on a per-target basis this year (8.2 yards per target), but the combination of recent soreness and his lack of a major role so far this year is at least slightly concerning.
- With that being said, if he’s healthy, the upside is huge here. Nuk had a 28% target share in 2023 and now will share the field with Justin Watson, who has just a 0.07 TPRR this season, and Xavier Worthy, who has one game above a 16% target share this year (which admittedly came in Week 7 post-bye and could be a sign of better target-earning potential moving forward).
- Also worth noting that this isn’t the same KC offense we’re used to. Patrick Mahomes is averaging 231.5 yards per game and has more interceptions than TDs. The Chiefs are winning with their defense, run game, and timely Mahomes magic, and there’s no reason to change that even with an upgraded WR corps.
- We’ve slotted in Hopkins right below George Pickens in our rest-of-season rankings.
OTHER CHIEFS PLAYERS
- This is legitimately really bad news for Travis Kelce, whose yards per reception (8.8) and yards per target (6.8) are both at career-low marks in his age-35 season. Kansas City is 6-0 and has no reason to push Kelce in the regular season, plus it seems like he may have lost a step in terms of getting downfield. With Rice out, Kelce could have fought for the overall TE2 spot behind Brock Bowers simply due to insane volume, but Hopkins figures to cap his ceiling target share pretty harshly.
- Watson and JuJu Smith-Schuster (once healthy) may no longer have full-time roles once Nuk gets up to speed. Watson was never relevant, but JuJu went for 7/130/0 on eight targets in Week 6 before a hamstring sidelined him on Sunday.
- This has to be a sizable hit to Worthy, too, simply due to target competition, though he still has massive explosive play upside and I suspect the conversation around him would be quite different if Patrick Mahomes had hit him in the hands on a near 70-yard touchdown vs. SF. I was encouraged by Worthy’s 30% target share in Week 7 considering his target-earning metrics had been awful through five games and because it came post-bye week (and we know rookies improve as the season progresses), but Hopkins likely assumes a 20+% target share when healthy. That caps Worthy pretty seriously, unless Hopkins’ injury is more serious than we know and they limit his playing time like the Titans did.
TITANS PLAYERS
- Calvin Ridley has a 20% target share and will remain the WR1 here. It’s not like Hopkins was out there on every play stealing his targets; Hopkins had one game with higher than a 51% route rate. Ridley has been dreadful so far this year, largely as a result of the Titans’ offensive incompetency. His volume will creep higher now that Hopkins’ 0.21 TPRR route rate is gone and replaced by Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, but there are clearly larger issues with Ridley’s fantasy outlook.
- NWI will step into the WR3 role here with Treylon Burks hurt. He’s not fantasy-relevant. Tyler Boyd has a respectable-but-not-fantasy-relevant 14.4% target share here, too. That number likely rises without Hopkins, but it won’t be enough to make him desirable in this Tennessee offense.
