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Welcome to the first edition of the 2020 Air Yards Buy-Low Model. The Buy-Low model uses target share and air yards to estimate a player’s expected production in the passing game, then highlights the players that underperformed relative to expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production (in the form of catches and touchdowns) is not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise, and the model helps us do just that. The out of sample r-squared for the model after one week of action is a very strong 0.578.


Editor’s Note: Before using the model, we strongly suggest everyone read Josh’s article introducing the concept here. We also recommend you listen to his interview with Adam Levitan in Episode 4 of the ETR podcast.


The pandemic tried to stop football but we stiff-armed that nonsense. The NFL just finished a marathon first weekend and the talk right now is about the players that hit: Receivers like Davante Adams, Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins and even Julio Jones seem like locks for excellent production for the rest of the season. Other players had down weeks. Some are more likely than others to rebound, and the model has identified a list of 25 receivers (TEs and RBs are included when their passing game opportunity warrants) that deserve consideration in your DFS tournament lineups for Week 2.

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