Draft time is upon us. Your fantasy football draft strategy is obviously heavily dependent on what pick you have. In this article, we’ll dig into what we think is the optimal strategy if you have an early pick in the first round.
ROUND 1 STRATEGY
We have a unanimous top four in our redraft rankings across all formats: Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Christian McCaffrey, and Austin Ekeler. Jefferson had the sixth-most single-season receiving yards of all time in his age-23 season and looks poised to run it back this season. The Vikings went from a -2.0% Pass Rate Over Expectation in 2021 to 2.9% last year (sixth in the NFL) in Kevin O’Connell‘s first year at the helm. With Kirk Cousins back and a shaky defense, Minnesota should throw the ball plenty in 2023, which bodes well for Jefferson considering the massive 27.1% target share he posted in 2022. In standard leagues, you could consider taking a running back like McCaffrey with the first overall pick because WRs are relatively devalued in that format, but Jefferson is an easy selection in any form of PPR.
Jefferson’s only competition for the WR1 ranking comes from his college teammate Ja’Marr Chase. The second-year pro followed up a Rookie of the Year campaign with a WR4 finish in half-PPR points per game (16.6). He missed four games in the middle of the year with a hip injury but still topped the 1,000-yard mark in just 12 games. Chase ranked sixth in target share (28.1%) while getting those targets from Joe Burrow — basically the ideal combination for fantasy production. Burrow suffered a calf injury early in training camp, but it’s not expected to cost him any regular-season games. The Burrow-Chase battery looks ready to post gaudy numbers again in 2023, and Chase (along with Jefferson) is one of the few elite WRs from last year who enter the new season with no systemic concerns. McCaffrey or your favorite running back isn’t a crazy choice with the second pick by any means, but few players in fantasy offer the same floor-ceiling combo as Chase, and he’s our preferred option at 1.02.
McCaffrey has been a mainstay near the top of fantasy rankings for years now, and 2023 is no exception. If you ignore his first game with the 49ers in which he played just 29% of snaps after being traded mid-week, McCaffrey led all RBs with 20.5 half-PPR fantasy points per game over the latter half of 2022. His 19.1% target share with Brock Purdy under center (including playoffs) was slightly below his overall target share with San Francisco, but it still would have easily led all RBs last season. Purdy’s recovery from the elbow injury he suffered in the NFC Championship Game is going well and he’s on track for Week 1, which means CMC owners won’t have to worry about Sam Darnold or Trey Lance stymying their first-round pick. McCaffrey did only average 14.7 carries per game after being traded to the Bay Area — and his 46.8% carries share was well below what you’d expect from the third overall pick in fantasy — but that’s largely because S.F. had so many blowouts late last year that they relied more on Elijah Mitchell and the backups to wind down the clock. Plus, the 49ers run so much that McCaffrey can average 15+ carries per game even while ceding some work to Mitchell. If he stays healthy, CMC’s receiving workload is challenged only by Austin Ekeler, and he should see 15+ carries per game in one of the most efficient offenses in the league.
Ekeler is our 1.04 across all formats coming off a season in which he led all RBs in fantasy points and points per game in half PPR and full PPR (Josh Jacobs edged him out in standard leagues). After a brief contract dispute early in the offseason, the relationship between Ekeler and the Chargers appears healthy. Los Angeles fired OC Joe Lombardi and brought in Kellen Moore, who has engineered some of the fastest offenses in the league for the Cowboys over the past few years. LAC is the favorite to lead the league in plays per game this year, which bodes well for all of their fantasy weapons. Ekeler’s 17.4% target share may not be sustainable now that Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are healthy and with the addition of first-round WR Quentin Johnston, but he can still flirt with triple-digit targets with a lower target share because of how many pass attempts the Chargers will have. As usual, we expect the Chargers to manage Ekeler’s rushing workload with Joshua Kelley and their other backups during the season, but that hasn’t stopped Ekeler from finishing as the RB1 last year and the RB2 in 2021. There are other options here if you don’t want Ekeler — especially at WR — but we personally are taking the runner here.
Tyreek Hill, Bijan Robinson, Cooper Kupp, and Travis Kelce are also options with a top-four pick. The Dolphins’ passing offense pre-Tua Tagovailoa injury was as explosive as any in the league, and Hill’s 29.4% target share was fourth in the league. Robinson has yet to play an NFL snap, but he’s the best running back prospect in years and boasts a sterling dual-threat prospect profile. Kupp is dealing with a hamstring injury and has massive systemic risk because the Rams look like one of the worst offenses in the league, but his track record over the past two years speaks for itself. Kelce turns 34 in October, but his production at the TE position is unmatched.
Hill and Robinson in particular are very viable, but we have Jefferson, Chase, McCaffrey, and Ekeler as the four best players in our rankings regardless of format. However, we wouldn’t fault anyone for taking someone else, especially at 1.03 or 1.04.
ROUNDS 2 & 3
Your team is off to a great start with one of the best assets in fantasy, but there’s still a lot of work to be done, starting with the 2-3 turn. If you drafted Jefferson, Chase, or Tyreek Hill in the first round, you’re faced with the decision of doubling or even tripling up at WR or nabbing an RB with these picks. If you have McCaffrey or Ekeler, this is likely when you want to start filling out your receiving corps. I asked ETR dynasty guru Anthony Amico his preferred strategy at this turn when he gets an early pick. In his words:
The top of drafts has moved aggressively toward WRs this year — Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp, and Tyreek Hill — leaving fantasy gamers with the interesting choice between piling on that early advantage, or pivoting elsewhere. DeVonta Smith and Tee Higgins are both young “1Bs” to superstars at the position, and offer access to elite offenses. Smith has the better chance of outscoring his counterpart. Chris Olave is another young option coming off an explosive rookie year, and now has a massive QB upgrade in Derek Carr. If starting a draft with Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler instead of the aforementioned receivers, it makes sense to double up here at WR if possible.
The landscape shift has created some great values at RB in that range as well. Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, and Derrick Henry were all early first-round options in 2022, and now provide some superteam potential if they can be paired with an elite WR. Jonathan Taylor comes with obvious risk right now given his trade demands, but Barkley and Henry have resolved situations for teams looking to compete in 2023. Tony Pollard is another name to add to this mix after an RB1 finish while splitting touches with Ezekiel Elliott.
Whether or not you should take two of these RBs is a matter of risk tolerance. While Zero RB is far less tenable in this kind of WR-heavy environment, the fundamental pillars of that strategy still apply for teams looking to load up at the position with early draft capital.
Like Amico, I generally focus on WR at the 2-3 turn if I took a runner with my first pick. However, that’s not as set in stone as it has been in previous years considering how drastically ADP has shifted over the past two seasons. With that being said, more casual home leagues may not see the same WR thirst that exists in best ball right now, so thoughtlessly targeting wideouts at the 2-3 turn after taking McCaffrey/Ekeler may be viable depending on your league. If someone like Pollard or Henry falls into late Round 2, that’s when I would consider drafting an RB, even if I already drafted one in the first round.
If you took a receiver in Round 1, forgoing RB for two more rounds becomes pretty difficult. Zero RB is a viable strategy in some formats — especially if you’re in a PPR league where your league-mates heavily target runners — but it’s not for everyone. If you don’t want to go that route, taking Pollard, Henry, Taylor, or Jacobs becomes a top priority. It’s worth noting that Taylor and Jacobs are currently unhappy with their contract situations and aren’t practicing with their respective teams, so we’ll see what happens with those two over the next month.
Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes were so dominant in 2022 that they would have paid off an ADP at the 2-3 turn. There are some high-upside QBs later in drafts, but late-round QB has become significantly less viable now that the high-end guys are scoring so many points, so taking a top-three QB is fine in Round 3 if you prefer to go that direction.
ROUNDS 4 & 5
For fantasy gamers with an early pick, Rounds 4 and 5 are in the middle of what has historically been called the “running back dead zone“. For years, RBs in Rounds 3-6 have underperformed vs. ADP on average, while wide receivers in this range have outperformed market expectations. In years past, it was literally as simple as just taking two receivers at the 4-5 turn and calling it a day.
This year, ADP has shifted drastically on some platforms — most notably Underdog Fantasy — to the point that WRs are going almost two rounds earlier than where the same-ranked WR would have gone two summers ago. As mentioned in the previous section, I don’t think this WR hysteria will translate to all home leagues, so I’m generally still looking to target WRs here. However, if your league plays out like Underdog best ball drafts where 15 RBs go in the first four rounds vs. 26 receivers, you may want to remain open to taking a runner. Otherwise, I like targeting players such as Calvin Ridley, Keenan Allen, Christian Kirk, or DeAndre Hopkins. All four of those WRs are undervalued according to our projections and, as receivers, they fit the mold of players who have historically been underrated in this portion of the draft. Particularly if you went McCaffrey or Ekeler in Round 1, you can afford to wait a while for your RB2, so loading up on wideouts makes a lot of sense. Even if you went Jefferson or Chase in the first round followed by at least one RB at the 2-3 turn, we recommend waiting on RB2 and creating an absolutely loaded WR corps.
If you have zero RBs through three rounds, maybe you consider the position here even if your league isn’t super WR-heavy. Ideally, you can get Jahmyr Gibbs or Kenneth Walker (who goes at the 4-5 turn in sharper best ball leagues), but Alexander Mattison and Aaron Jones are also tolerable in Round 5.
QBs will go too early in many leagues, but some leagues really buy into the late-round QB strategy and let the top-end options fall too far. With dual-threat QBs becoming more popular (Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields) and elite offenses fully embracing the pass and handing the reins to the QB (Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert), low-end QB1s simply can’t match the numbers necessary to post an overall QB1 season. Gone are the days of drafting a top-five QB season in the double-digit rounds; you get what you pay for with fantasy quarterbacks these days. That doesn’t mean you need an elite option, but Jackson, Burrow, Fields, and Herbert are viable at this turn if you want to secure an elite guy. They are especially interesting if you can get a stack with one of their favorite pass catchers (e.g., Burrow on a team that has Chase or Tee Higgins, pairing Round 5 Herbert with Round 4 Keenan Allen, etc.).
ROUNDS 6 & 7
Rounds 6 and 7 mark the end of the RB dead zone. I asked ETR projections savant Mark Dankenbring which players he likes drafting in these rounds. His response:
With an early pick in 2023 drafts, I’m typically looking to add two wide receivers during the 6-7 round turn. The typical group of WRs available here are really reliable bets with upside as well, so I’m typically taking two WRs here barring a massive falling value at RB. The group of Jordan Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett, Gabe Davis, and Quentin Johnston are my top targets in this range, as they play in pass-heavy offenses that I want to bet on in 2023. If you’re already loaded at WR, I also like targeting Darren Waller or Dallas Goedert at TE, as I think there’s a sizable tier break after them at the position.
Addison, Smith-Njigba, and Johnston are the three highest-ranked rookie WRs this season. Since you presumably already have a strong WR group by this point, taking a rookie makes sense since they won’t need to be thrust into your fantasy lineup immediately. We know rookies generally improve throughout the year, so they can provide your team with a major boost in the second half once they get acclimated to the pro game. Goedert and Waller are good bets too. Goedert should benefit from the Eagles coming back to Earth and needing to throw in the second half a little bit more this year, while Waller is reportedly destroying everyone in his path at Giants training camp. Waiting on TE is never a bad idea, but these two (plus Kyle Pitts) are solid options if you prefer to set it and forget it at tight end.
If you feel you’ve had enough receivers at this point, this is also when we can start pivoting back to RB. In our rankings, we’re more than a round ahead of ADP on David Montgomery. We are ahead of market on Javonte Williams too, but he bears more risk than others in this range because he’s coming off a gruesome multi-ligament tear that cost him the majority of the 2022 campaign. Still, reports from Denver on his recovery have been sunny all offseason and he’s expected to play in the preseason, so he’s a nice high-upside option if a little danger doesn’t scare you off. Rachaad White and Isiah Pacheco could not be on more different offenses, but both players go in this range and you can make a bull case for them as well. You certainly can continue drafting WRs here (that’s what I do most of the time), but this is where it becomes pretty palatable to start your RB2/3 carousel.
ROUNDS 8-11
By Round 8, your starting lineup is starting to take shape. Your draft strategy in Rounds 8-11 depends heavily on your roster construction in the first seven rounds. If you have a WR-heavy start — which is generally what we prefer — this is a good spot to load up on running backs. The archetype we’re looking for here is players with a Week 1 role who could see their volume increase dramatically throughout the season. Example: David Montgomery should inherit the short-yardage role that allowed Jamaal Williams to lead the league in rushing touchdowns last year, and he could be an RB1 if Jahmyr Gibbs misses time. Similarly, James Cook has an iron grip on the pass-catching role in Buffalo and should see some early-down carries, plus he could simply earn more work throughout the season if he plays well. Plenty of backs fit this archetype in Rounds 8-11, which is a big reason why we prefer getting your WR production early.
If you went RB-heavy early, there are viable wideouts in this range too. While historical data suggests it’s difficult to find elite WR production outside of the early rounds, there are always exceptions, and many of the names in this range have intriguing ceilings. Even if you have a fair number of receivers through seven rounds, it’s your team, so feel free to add another if you feel strongly about a player.
If you don’t have a QB yet, you should take one in these rounds. The top options like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes have significantly weakened the value of the late-round quarterback strategy because it’s so difficult to find comparable production later in drafts. Even if you’re waiting to draft a back-end QB1 like Daniel Jones or Tua Tagovailoa, you are at a significant disadvantage against the teams that paid up at QB. Still, guys like Jones and Tua at least have mid-range QB1 within their range of outcomes, whereas things get ugly quickly once you get past Anthony Richardson in our rankings. The tight ends in this range are tolerable too, although it’s such a low-scoring position outside of the elites that you can scrape by with a super late-round TE and just scour the waiver wire for a breakout option.
ROUND 12+
Fill out your roster! I usually only draft one QB and one TE, but it’s okay to take two QBs if you get a low-end QB1 and want two shots at lucking into high-end production. Now that the elite QBs are scoring so many more points than everyone else, it’s less viable to stream every week based on matchup, so I don’t mind pairing Anthony Richardson and Kirk Cousins together in hopes one of them ends up as a mid-range QB1 (especially since Richardson has such a wide range of outcomes). At TE1, you’re usually fine with just one regardless because the difference between TE12 and TE24 isn’t as big as it is at QB, plus late-round TEs sometimes emerge from the ashes to become viable fantasy starters.
GENERAL TIPS
- You want upside in the final rounds. Players who will actually crack your starting lineup if they hit. And if they don’t hit, no biggie; you can just drop them for another player. In fact, it’s probably easier mentally to drop a high-upside player who didn’t pan out than a floor play who produces a negligible-but-not-zero amount every week.
- You can also mix archetypes of how you draft at a certain position. For example, if you go Zero RB, you want high-upside shots that could break out during the year like Zach Charbonnet, but you need to complement those potential late-season breakouts with RBs who can post viable weeks immediately (e.g., Jamaal Williams with Alvin Kamara facing a suspension).
- Some platforms force you to pick a defense and kicker, but you can drop them right after the draft for more fliers at RB and WR. Then you can just pick up a D/ST and K before Week 1. That way, you have more roster spots for high-upside fliers.
- The timing of information is a factor to consider in normal redraft leagues. Someone like Justyn Ross is tough to trust in best ball because we don’t even know whether he’ll play this season. In redraft, taking a shot on Ross has minimal downside because you can drop him before the season if he hasn’t signed anywhere yet.
- If you need to draft a K and/or D/ST at the draft, we have K Tiers and D/ST Tiers to help you with that.
- Grinding the waiver wire is paramount. Guys like Tyler Allgeier and Jerick McKinnon were critical pieces of many championship teams last year. Part of the reason we go light at RB is that there are usually a few contributors who emerge from the ashes.
