Dynasty Outlook
March 5
Gibbs came in a shade lighter than expected, but did not disappoint with his speed at the Combine. His profile remains strong whether he is selected at the back-end of Round 1 or early on Day 2. The biggest question remaining continues to be the size of his NFL workload, but that is softened in PPR formats given the value of targets.
Feb. 22
Gibbs is our second RB for rookie drafts and checks in as RB7 in our overall dynasty ranks. He is likely to earn quality draft capital — potentially as high as the first round. Breaking out as a true freshman puts him in the top historical group of RB prospects in terms of hit rate. Gibbs also has high-end RB1 comps. While he does not show up in the comp set (likely due to being mismanaged at Tennessee), the scouts all seemed to have Gibbs as an Alvin Kamara-type RB. There is a ton of fantasy upside here.
Profile Summary
Jahmyr Gibbs is closer to being the 1B RB in this class than belonging to the second tier. While he does not boast tremendous rushing stats, he appears to be an ideal fit for the modern NFL with an ability to pose mismatches in the passing game. This is backed up by both the scouting reports and the stat-based comps. How good he can be is likely to be determined by how heavy of a workload he is able to handle at the NFL level.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/22) — 20.8
Experience — 3 years
By the Numbers
Gibbs started his career at Georgia Tech, where he played for two seasons in tandem with current 49er RB Jordan Mason. In addition to his RB responsibilities, Gibbs was utilized as a kick returner. He broke out as a true freshman despite splitting work with other backs and having a running QB in the mix.
His transfer to Alabama got him more on the forefront of the national stage, and he saw a career high in usage with 151 carries and 44 catches in 12 games. Gibbs was never a workhorse on the ground in college, but he averaged 3.3 catches per game for his career and 11.8 yards per reception. He definitely profiles as a high-end receiving back.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein views Gibbs as a potential mismatch at the next level:
While Gibbs might not be the engine of an NFL running game, he’s more than capable of adding juice to the offense. He’s a slasher who can stretch defenses wide, and he has the wiggle to elude tacklers in space. However, he could see his effectiveness diminished inside. Gibbs might be better off with a more measured carry count as an RB2, but his versatility and pass-catching prowess will give creative play-callers an opportunity to exploit certain personnel groupings and find mismatches in space.
Daniel Jeremiah joined Zierlein in comping Gibbs to Alvin Kamara:
Gibbs has average size, but he offers outstanding burst and versatility. As a runner, he excels when he can get to the perimeter, either from the backfield or from the slot on jet sweeps. He explodes to the edge. Gibbs can set up blocks in space and rely on a nasty stiff-arm. On inside runs, he needs daylight. He lacks the lower-body power to push the pile. He has good vision and he’s decisive. He is a weapon in the passing game, as he can run wide receiver routes and he easily catches the ball. In pass pro, he attacks linebackers, closing down their runway and stopping their charge. He is very aware. Overall, Gibbs isn’t quite as strong as Alvin Kamara, but the rest of his game is almost identical to that of the Saints’ star running back.
Dane Brugler also sees Gibbs as a pass-catching weapon:
With his ability to press, sort, and burst, Jahmyr Gibbs is an offensive line’s best friend as a runner. He has sudden footwork and an advanced feel for blocking design. Gibbs might not have ideal size or run power, but his pass-catching skills will make him an exciting NFL weapon.
Draft Projection
Gibbs currently has an expected draft position of 34.2 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Gibbs 29th overall. He was not selected in the first round of Jeremiah’s most recent mock, and he went 39th in Brugler’s most recent mock. Gibbs currently is a fringe first-round pick.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
While Bijan Robinson is considered to be the clear top RB prospect in this year’s draft, Gibbs’ comps would put the pair neck and neck with each other. The major commonality we see in a lot of Gibbs’ comps is the receiving ability. And while Gibbs was not a collegiate workhorse, that statement would have also applied to Maurice Jones-Drew, Reggie Bush, and — to some extent — Gio Bernard. Those players all went on to still become dominant PPR forces at some point in their careers.
Whether or not Gibbs can make that leap to the high-end carry levels we’ve seen from someone like Christian McCaffrey remains to be seen. That will be the difference between becoming a complementary PPR specialist and an elite fantasy RB. If Gibbs is truly 200 pounds, then his weight does not preclude him from increasing his workload at the next level.
