Dynasty Outlook
March 5
There were some questions about Smith-Njigba’s athleticism entering the Combine, and while he didn’t run the 40 (and perhaps never will) he put some of those concerns to bed in the agility testing. JSN posted the 12th-best three-cone and 4th-best shuttle time ever for a WR. Especially with the position not having a great weekend, Smith-Njigba is likely well-solidified in the top 25 of the Draft.
Feb. 21
Smith-Njigba is our top WR for rookie drafts and checks in as WR19 in our overall dynasty ranks. His outstanding 2021 season while playing alongside two proven studs is carrying a lot of weight in this ranking, as we did not get to see much of Smith-Njigba at all in 2022. His player comps paint the picture of a fantasy asset with a wide range of outcomes, but the top end of that is well worth buying in rookie drafts. The scouts have him pinned down as a slot player, but the mind certainly wanders to the possibility that JSN is similar to Justin Jefferson — who also dominated collegiately out of the slot before becoming a stud in all areas. How he tests athletically will go a long way in figuring out exactly where he may fit in at the next level.
Profile Summary
Jaxon Smith-Njigba entered the 2022 season as an extremely high-touted prospect but failed to produce much due to injury. That has his draft stock in far more flux, as he is not expected to be the first WR off the board come April (though still likely a first-round pick). His production when sharing a target tree with two elite rookie producers from 2022 was exceptional and bodes well for his future. Smith-Njigba projects to be a slot receiver per the scouts, but he does appear to have a ceiling better than what you’d expect from someone in that role.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/22) — 20.9
Experience — 3 years
By the Numbers
Smith-Njigba was part of an elite WR group while at Ohio State. As a freshman, he had to compete with Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, and Jameson Williams for playing time. Williams transferred to Alabama for Smith-Njigba’s sophomore season, but Olave and Wilson were still present before proving to be excellent at the NFL level. Smith-Njigba managed to hold his own. Here is how the trio performed in common games in 2021:
Olave – 58 catches, 875 yards, 12 TDs
Wilson – 64 catches, 988 yards, 11 TDs
Smith-Njigba – 63 catches, 986 yards, 5 TDs
While the touchdown scoring was way different, Smith-Njigba was right there with the two top rookie WRs of 2022. He then crushed with them off the field, including a 15/347/3 performance in the bowl game against Utah.
Smith-Njigba barely participated in 2022 while he dealt with injuries.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein believes JSN will be a slot at the next level:
Smith-Njigba is a possession slot receiver who lacks the shake to separate underneath and the speed to run past defenses. He’s tough in the middle of the defense and has proven he can make catches in congestion. Smith-Njigba will need to fine-tune his route running to give himself his best chance to succeed at the next level. It is impossible to ignore his monster finish to the 2021 season, and he has starting slot potential, but the speed concerns coupled with an injury-plagued 2022 season threaten to negatively impact his draft stock.
Daniel Jeremiah comped Smith-Njigba to Amon-Ra St. Brown:
Smith-Njigba primarily lined up in the slot for the Buckeyes, but he did get some work on the outside. He has a compact build with a strong lower body. Smith-Njigba was very productive playing alongside Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave for Ohio State in 2021, but he missed all but three games in 2022 due to injury. He doesn’t have ideal top speed, but he gets to his full speed very quickly. He is very polished as a route runner, leaning on defenders and quickly getting in and out of breaks. He has strong hands and thrives in the middle of the field, as he can pluck the ball while absorbing contact. He has some power and wiggle after the catch, but he lacks a second gear. Overall, Smith-Njigba reminds me of Amon-Ra St. Brown, and I believe he’ll make a similar impact in the NFL.
Dane Brugler makes it a clean sweep on scouts that foresee Smith-Njigba playing out of the slot in the NFL:
Despite missing almost all of the 2022 season due to injury, Jaxon Smith-Njigba still belongs in the first-round discussion. He isn’t a burner, but the Texas native is a route technician with terrific ball skills and a knack for working to open space in coverage. Smith-Njigba can be a high-volume producer out of the slot in the NFL, just like he was at Ohio State.
Draft Projection
Smith-Njigba currently has an expected draft position of 23.9 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Smith-Njigba 19th overall. He went 20th in Jeremiah’s most recent mock, and 30th in Brugler’s most recent mock. Smith-Njigba seems most likely to be a late first-round pick, but he could potentially slip into Day 2.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
For the purposes of this exercise, we removed JSN’s 2022 season from the equation. He appeared in just three games and dealt with injury all year. Similar to George Pickens last year, it is simply not worthwhile to include this season in our analysis.
It is clear that the range of outcomes is extremely wide for Smith-Njigba. He draws comps to Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson — two of the best WRs in football — as well as Jarvis Landry, who was a long-term quality starter with some high-level seasons. Everyone else on the list is pretty much terrible. Landry is particularly interesting given that it matches Zierlein’s player comparison in his write-up. It is worth noting that the comps don’t know Smith-Njigba played against such stiff competition at Ohio State.
