Dynasty Outlook
April 12
Jonathon Brooks is our RB3 for rookie drafts and checks in as RB22 in our overall dynasty ranks. While he did not break out until his final season, we have a reasonable excuse given that he had two other NFL players in the backfield with him. Brooks enters the league at just 20 years of age, and appears to be rehabbing well off his ACL tear. As with most backs in this class, there are questions regarding Brooks’ ceiling. With that said, he is popularly mocked to the Cowboys, and would see a significant rise in our rankings given their offensive setup and depth chart if he were selected there.
Profile Summary
Brooks is somewhat difficult to evaluate given he did not have a ton of reps at the collegiate level. He is also entering the league with an ACL tear, though it is notable he looked good at the medical re-checks. Even on a small sample, the scouts and the data both seem fairly impressed. Brooks handled a full workload in his one season as the starter, and may be able to do so at the next level.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/23) — 20.5
Experience — 3 years
Height — 72.375 inches
Weight — 216 pounds
Hand — 9.25 inches
Arm — 31.5 inches
By the Numbers
Brooks has great career efficiency — sporting a 6.2-yard rushing average and 12.0-yard receiving average — but has not played a ton of football. His first two seasons, he was behind Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson, which is certainly not a knock given that Robinson was a top-10 pick, and Johnson a fourth-rounder. Brooks only got to start 11 games for the Longhorns before tearing his ACL in 2023. As a result, he finished his career with just 238 carries.
Here are RBs since 2005 to come off the board between Rounds 2 and 4 who saw fewer than 300 carries in their careers, but averaged over six yards per attempt and 10 yards per reception:
Rachaad White
James Cook
Rhamondre Stevenson
Tony Pollard
C.J. Prosise
Kenyan Drake
Alex Green
This is a pleasantly surprising group of backs, and it is worth noting that the majority of them are recent draft picks. The sample is also quite small. Drake, Pollard, and Stevenson have struggled to hold down workhorse roles and remain effective, and it will be interesting to see what happens with Cook and White in that regard.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein compared Brooks to Jamaal Charles:
The comparison of Brooks to former Longhorn Jamaal Charles might feel lazy to some, but he has similar size and traits as a runner. Brooks’ limited collegiate carries could be seen as a balancing agent against the fact he’s coming off an ACL tear. He’s agile and smooth working from cut to cut and is likely to improve his feel for reading blocks and setting up defenders as he gains experience. Brooks has the wiggle and know-how to create yardage in tight quarters or in space, but is efficient finishing runs when it’s time. He has good burst but can be a little hesitant to punch the gas between the tackles until he sees clear points of entry, and he isn’t a physical run finisher. Brooks is a runner on an upward trajectory. He’s a good pass catcher with three-down potential who should fit nicely as an early starter for zone-heavy teams.
Dane Brugler brought a Kenyan Drake comparison, matching the data:
After spending two years behind Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson, Brooks was en route to an All-American-level performance in 2023 prior to suffering a torn ACL — he ranked top five in the FBS in rushing at the time of his injury.
Despite a wide gait and long legs, Brooks is a controlled, instinctive runner who forces missed tackles with his subtle ability to set up defenders and string together moves using timely, sharp cuts.
Stylistically, he reminds me of Kenyan Drake, although Brooks has better vision and big-play potential (assuming he returns to pre-injury form).
Draft Projection
Brooks does not make the top 50 at Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Brooks 59th overall. Jordan Reid’s two-round mock has Brooks going 58th, and Mel Kiper’s has him 56th. Brooks appears to be locked into the middle of Day 2.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
The comps aren’t amazing, but they aren’t poor either. Most of these backs have had some level of fantasy production in their careers. Mark Ingram and Rashard Mendenhall have posted RB1 seasons, but they are the only players on this list to do so. Javonte Williams, Laurence Maroney, and J.K. Dobbins have returned startable production, but have not been major hits. Tre Mason was a one-year wonder, and we never really got to see what Mikel Leshoure could be due to injury.
Ameer Abdullah and Robert Turbin are the busts, though it is worth noting they have had receiving roles over decently-long careers for the position. Ronnie Hillman was a bit of a purgatory player for a few years. The comps overall paint the picture of someone who may not have a massive ceiling but has a reasonably high floor.
