Dynasty Outlook
March 5
The Combine went about as poorly as it could for Addison. He came in lighter than expected at 173 pounds, and his hands were under nine inches. He then tested poorly athletically. His stock is almost certainly crashing down into the latter portions of Day 1, if not out of the first round entirely. His production was excellent in college, but not quite to the level of a Devonta Smith — who was similarly sized. He also faced worse competition. Addison will definitely be moving down our ranks on the next update.
Feb. 24
Addison is our WR2 for rookie drafts and comes in as WR20 in our overall dynasty ranks. His true freshman breakout — along with being a Biletnikoff winner — gives Addison a tremendous chance to find success at the next level. His expected draft capital helps as well. The statistical comps feature a lot of players who have been successful for fantasy, including some similarly-productive wideouts who were discounted in their own drafts. Though he is slight in build, the scouts believe he can find success in all three levels of an NFL passing game. Addison should have chances to produce right away, and his ability to command volume enhances his PPR outlook.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/22) — 20.9
Experience — 3 years
By the Numbers
Addison stepped onto the field as an immediate producer alongside Kenny Pickett at Pittsburgh, racking up 60 catches en route to a true freshman breakout campaign. He took a massive step forward as a sophomore, compiling over 1,600 yards and 18 TDs while winning the Biletnikoff award for college football’s best WR. That puts him in an elite group of WR prospects who won the award and became first-round picks (which we expect to happen for Addison). Here is the list since 2000:
DeVonta Smith
Ja’Marr Chase
Jerry Jeudy
Corey Coleman
Amari Cooper
Brandin Cooks
Justin Blackmon
Michael Crabtree
Calvin Johnson
Braylon Edwards
Larry Fitzgerald
Charles Rodgers
Troy Edwards
Randy Moss
Terry Glenn
It’s a verifiable who’s who of some of the best players at the position — with just a couple of misses mixed in. Addison followed this up by transferring to USC and playing with presumed 2024 first overall pick Caleb Williams. His production took a step back from a market share perspective, but he was still the leading WR while playing alongside his toughest competition yet.
In addition to his work as a receiver, Addison was a contributor as a rusher and punt returner throughout his college career. This is the kind of three-way production that typically foretells high-end, quick-twitch athletic traits.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein noted size and play strength as potential concerns for the otherwise talented Addison:
Inside/outside wideout with the speed and agility to work confidently on all three levels of the field, but he’s lacking the size and catch strength generally associated with high-impact performers on the next level. Addison’s route running features acceleration, dynamic steering, and sudden turns at a moment’s notice. While he can get to the spot effectively, he has trouble consistently winning battles when he has coverage company beside him. While Addison failed to make the same impact he did in 2021, his usage at Pitt might be a better indicator of the type of role and production he could be capable of on the next level.
Daniel Jeremiah expects Addison to command volume at the next level:
Addison has average height and a narrow frame for the position. He lines up outside and in the slot. He is a very smooth, polished route runner, routinely changing tempo and efficiently getting in/out of the break point. He has excellent play speed and can find another gear when the ball is in the air. He has natural hands and doesn’t need to gather himself before catching the ball on crossers. He can high-point the ball when working back to the QB, but he has to get stronger on 50/50 balls. After the catch, he has excellent burst and wiggle. Overall, Addison should become a high-volume pass catcher very early in his pro career.
Dane Brugler agreed with Zierlein that Addison is a three-level receiver:
Jordan Addison skillfully marries his play speed, suddenness, and focus as a route runner to create spacing and run-after-catch opportunities. He is undersized, and scouts have concerns about his ability to defeat press and win on the outside in the NFL, but Addison is a loose athlete who can work all three levels of the field.
Draft Projection
Addison currently has an expected draft position of 19.4 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Addison 17th overall. He was the 12th pick in Jeremiah’s most recent mock and went 20th in Brugler’s most recent mock. Addison appears to be solidified as a first-round pick.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
Addison finds himself in some great company on the comps list. We see a bunch of athletic, smaller WRs with multi-faceted collegiate production. On the high end, we see 2022 Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson along with some perennial studs in Calvin Ridley, T.Y Hilton, Stefon Diggs, DeSean Jackson, and Santonio Holmes. When factoring in body type, Hilton, Jackson, and Ridley seem like the best comps.
On the negative side, players like Kendall Wright and Marquise Lee struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness at the pro level — perhaps a particular concern for someone who is likely to come in as a low-BMI player. With that said, the positives seem to far outweigh the negatives in this comp set.
