Large-Field GPP Breakdown: 3M Open

There is no rest for the weary in PGA DFS. Despite finishing the final major of the year last week, the PGA Tour gives us no breaks as we hop straight into some great prize pools on DK for the 3M Open, which is held in Minnesota every year. Unfortunately, I didn’t get to watch a ton of golf live last week given the time difference and a bit of work at my day job, but I was able to catch most of Sunday at the very least. The Sunday that Xander had was honestly incredible. It really has been a great year for majors golf, with the addition of the LIV commentary/layer actually adding to the allure of the majors as well. While I have done my fair share of commenting on LIV and the PGA Tour in the past, I’ll just appreciate that we have had drama at every major this year and the best players contending for the titles. Now we are rewarded by some lower-tier players battling it out in the lovely state of Minnesota, which is actually my birthplace. Fun fact.

The Open – Recap

As with every major, we got a large-field Milly Maker and a high-dollar Milly Maker from DK. Last week was really defined by carnage at Royal Troon. No player was safe from a random +10 or +9 on a single day, and we saw multiple players at the top of the pricing structure go up in flames on Thursday or Friday to miss the cut. Six of the 12 players priced $9K or up missed the cut (I played five of them). Three of the six players above $10K missed the cut. It was a wild week for contrarian players, as the 6/6 rate was just 3%. Let’s take a look at the winning lineup in the milly and see if we can learn something (we can):

• It featured a stars-and-scrubs build with Scottie and Xander up top, completing the lineup with FOUR players below $7K. I don’t have the data on this (maybe Cody does), but what I tend to see in majors is that people start to lean towards more balanced builds because of the immense amount of talent that we get in these. If this is actually happening, stars-and-scrubs lineups like this one can produce a lot of leverage on the field just from the general roster construction. For example, 1.8% of lineups had both Scottie and Xander in them. With a robust $6K range, you could play these two together and still feel generally comfortable that you weren’t putting out a dead lineup. Remember this when we get to the majors in 2025. 
• It had a cumulative ownership of 68.4%, despite featuring a chalky Sungjae Im along with Xander and Scottie. I’m really glad to see a contrarian lineup win this Milly Maker with a lineup that was within the cumulative ownership rules that I follow. With the roster construction being what it was and the cumulative ownership staying in check, this was a lineup that probably was +EV to begin with. You love to see it. 
• I have to note: This lineup featured Shubhankar Sharma, who seems to be an Open legend. Hats off to you, Shubh.

Before we move to the 3M Open, I want to talk a little bit about how fragile narratives are in golf. Six months ago, Xander Schauffele was put in the same boat as Patrick Cantlay as dudes who just couldn’t close, weren’t going to win the big one, etc., etc. While all the underlying metrics were there, the narrative prevailed, as we continued to see X’s ownership in majors come in lower than it should have. If I remember correctly, his win at the U.S. Open saw him at about 17% owned. This past week, he again came in at 16% owned. It is absolutely wild to me how narratives and player takes impact ownership in DFS golf. To be honest, it might be the single thing that keeps me playing this crazy DFS sport. When you are factoring in narratives like these, you are only hurting yourself in the long run. While it feels good to “call a player right”, data is king in DFS. Shout-out to all my lineup sharks.

3M Open – Preview